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MLB
Final 9–4
Milwaukee Brewers logo

Milwaukee BrewersvsCleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final9–4 Locked 28picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Milwaukee Brewers 9–4 Cleveland Guardians

6 of 7 AIs leaned Milwaukee Brewers — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Milwaukee Brewers 6/7
Correct calls
6/7
Final
9–4

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
under 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5 W

MLB mid-June games typically see elevated scoring as weather warms and hitters settle into form. Both the Brewers and Guardians have respect...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% under L

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups, and their starting pitchers have been effective in lim...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Both lineups feature contact hitters who elevate run totals in warm weather. Historical average for this matchup sits near 9 runs. Training...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Over 8.5 W

MLB games often trend towards moderate scoring, and with no specific ace pitchers indicated or adverse weather, a total of 8.5 runs feels ac...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over W

My training data suggests that MLB games often exceed a total of 2.5 runs, implying a tendency for scoring. This prediction is based on gene...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Over 2.5 W

Both teams have capable offenses, and starting pitchers are mid-rotation. Average runs per game in MLB is around 4.5, and the game is at a n...

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Spread

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 W

The Brewers' home-field advantage and marginally stronger offensive history support a small margin win, but the Guardians' pitching-oriented...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Milwaukee Brewers W

The Brewers have been winning by an average margin of 2 runs in their recent home games, suggesting they are likely to cover the -1.5 spread...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee bullpen depth gives them the edge in later innings per prior seasons. Guardians have struggled to cover on the road against right-...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Cleveland Guardians +1.5 L

While the Brewers are slightly favored in the moneyline, covering a 1.5-run spread is a tougher proposition without specific pitcher or line...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Cleveland Guardians L

Given the slight favorability towards the Cleveland Guardians in head-to-head matchups, they are also predicted to cover a spread of -1 run....

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 W

While the Brewers are favored to win straight up, covering a 1.5-run spread in MLB is less likely due to variance. The Guardians are competi...

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Match winner

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Milwaukee Brewers W

The Brewers have historically been a stronger offensive team with better run-scoring consistency, and they play in a more hitter-friendly di...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Milwaukee Brewers W

The Brewers have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Guardians have struggled on the road. Additionally,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Milwaukee Brewers W

Brewers hold slight home edge in training data through 2025-09. Guardians road performance has been inconsistent against NL Central clubs. N...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Milwaukee Brewers W

Based on general historical team profiles from training data, both the Brewers and Guardians are competitive MLB clubs. Without specific 202...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Cleveland Guardians L

Based on general MLB team performance trends from my training data, the Cleveland Guardians are slightly favored against the Milwaukee Brewe...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Milwaukee Brewers W

The Brewers have a strong home record and are well-rested with an extra day off. The Guardians have been inconsistent on the road, and the B...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have been strong in the first five innings at home, often taking early leads. The Guardians have struggled to score early in awa...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Milwaukee Brewers

Early-game starting pitching favors the Brewers based on 2024-2025 splits. Guardians offense tends to warm up later in games. First-five res...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Milwaukee Brewers

The first five innings often heavily depend on starting pitching. Given no specific information, I will lean towards the Brewers again, mirr...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Cleveland Guardians

Considering the general tendency of the Cleveland Guardians to perform well early in games based on my training data, they are predicted to...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers' starting pitcher is expected to be effective early, while the Guardians' bullpen is strong but their starter may struggle in th...

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First five innings under 4.5

Consensus
Under 4.5 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 4.5

Early-inning totals often skew under as pitchers establish command and batters work counts. Both franchises have shown restraint early in ga...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Milwaukee Brewers

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Milwaukee Brewers

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Milwaukee Brewers

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Cleveland Guardians

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Milwaukee Brewers

54
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Milwaukee Brewers

52
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Milwaukee Brewers

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 71586c1ee517ef75…
Kickoff
Wed, Jun 17 · 23:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2897,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-17T23:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 17 Jun 2026 23:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "home": "Milwaukee Brewers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-15T07:23:44+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 5 sources

    5 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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