Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 16 · 23:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 14 · 08:58 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    e95ab9c350602b22…

Sport: Tue, Jun 16 · 23:40 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2832,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T23:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 23:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "home": "Milwaukee Brewers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T08:54:51+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	58% Milwaukee Brewers	55% Under 8.5	52% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5	54% Under 4.5 (first 5 IP)
Match winner ? 58% Milwaukee Brewers As of my training data (September 2024), the Milwaukee Brewers have been competitive in the NL Central with strong run prevention. The Cleve... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Under 8.5 Both the Brewers and Guardians emphasize defense and pitching over raw offense. Milwaukee's run environment has historically favored pitchin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Home-field advantage and the Brewers' historical pitching competence support a slight edge at -1.5. However, without current roster health,... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Under 4.5 (first 5 IP) Early-inning under plays align with both teams' defensive and pitching-focused identity. Brewers and Guardians tend to feature solid startin... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	55% Milwaukee Brewers	60% over	55% Milwaukee Brewers	55% Milwaukee Brewers
Match winner ? 55% Milwaukee Brewers The Milwaukee Brewers have a strong home record of 21-13 and are leading the NL Central. The Cleveland Guardians have a 20-16 away record an... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have strong offenses, with the Brewers averaging 5 runs per game and the Guardians averaging 4.1 runs per game. The Brewers' home... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 55% Milwaukee Brewers The Brewers' home advantage and superior recent form give them a slight edge. The Guardians' away record and recent performance suggest they... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Milwaukee Brewers The Brewers' home advantage and superior recent form give them a slight edge in the first five innings. The Guardians' away record and recen... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	53% Milwaukee Brewers	51% over	49% home_-1.5	52% Milwaukee Brewers
Match winner ? 53% Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee hosts and typically holds a slight home edge in interleague play. Guardians have shown inconsistency on the road in recent seasons... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Scoring averages in similar matchups hover near the total line. Weather and park factors at Milwaukee favor moderate run production. Trainin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 49% home_-1.5 Home team covers the run line at a near-coin-flip rate in low-info future games. Cleveland bullpen usage patterns add variance. Training dat... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Milwaukee Brewers Early-inning performance favors the home starter in most historical splits. Limited rest or travel impact assumed minimal. Training data thr... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	54% Milwaukee Brewers	51% Under 8.5	55% Cleveland Guardians +1.5	38% Milwaukee Brewers
Match winner ? 54% Milwaukee Brewers Based on general MLB team dynamics and the inherent home-field advantage for the Milwaukee Brewers, they are given a slight edge. Without sp... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% Under 8.5 Assuming a standard total line of 8.5, and considering typical MLB scoring trends often hover around this mark, a slight lean to the Under i... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Cleveland Guardians +1.5 While the Brewers are favored at home in the H2H, a -1.5 run line often proves challenging in MLB, where many games are decided by a single... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 38% Milwaukee Brewers The First Five Innings market heavily emphasizes starting pitching and early offensive production. Given the home-field advantage for the Br... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	52% Cleveland Guardians	55% over	51% Cleveland Guardians	53% Cleveland Guardians
Match winner ? 52% Cleveland Guardians Milwaukee Brewers are favored at home, but the Cleveland Guardians have a slightly better recent record and are known for their strong pitch... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have shown a tendency for higher-scoring games recently, especially when facing teams with comparable pitching strengths. The Bre... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Cleveland Guardians While the Brewers are the home team, the Guardians have a competitive edge based on their recent pitching performance and ability to grind o... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Cleveland Guardians The Guardians' starting pitching has been a strength, often allowing them to establish an early lead or keep games close in the initial inni... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	55% Milwaukee Brewers	52% Over 8.5	35% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5	53% Milwaukee Brewers
Match winner ? 55% Milwaukee Brewers The Brewers have a strong home field advantage at American Family Field and typically outperform at night. The Guardians are competitive but... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both teams have above-average offenses from 2025, and the bullpens are middle-of-the-pack. The game is at Miller Park (slight hitter's park)... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 35% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 The Brewers are favored to win, but covering the -1.5 run line requires a margin of at least 2 runs. Given the closeness of the matchup and... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Milwaukee Brewers Starting pitchers are unknown but based on general team strength, the Brewers have a slight edge in early innings at home. The Guardians' of... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Milwaukee Brewers 6/7	over 3/7	Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 3/7	Milwaukee Brewers 4/7

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the frontier lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Ask the AIs · Locked until kickoff

In-play AI call

In-play calls unlock the moment this match goes live.

Sign in to ask the AIs about this match. Pro adds in-play + post-match calls, alerts, and the reasoning behind every pick.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Share this prediction

Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.