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MLB
Upcoming · in 80h 46m
Milwaukee Brewers logo

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs logo

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 28 · 18:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 25 · 05:48 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded
Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: ff9475f2728a3fe0…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 28 · 18:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7570,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-28T18:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 28 Jun 2026 18:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago Cubs",
        "home": "Milwaukee Brewers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Milwaukee Brewers

Both teams are NL Central rivals with relatively balanced rosters as of mid-2026. The Brewers have historically been slightly stronger in re...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Chicago Cubs have struggled on the road. T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Milwaukee Brewers

Based on training data through 2023-09, Milwaukee has historically held a strong home record against Chicago in divisional play. Cubs road p...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Milwaukee Brewers

Based on historical data through my training knowledge cut-off (approx. 2025-09), the Milwaukee Brewers often leverage their home-field adva...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Milwaukee Brewers

Based on my training data, the Milwaukee Brewers generally perform well at home and have a historical edge over the Chicago Cubs in recent m...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Milwaukee Brewers

Based on training data through 2025, the Brewers have consistently outperformed the Cubs in head-to-head matchups at home. Recent form and s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Over

Both the Brewers and Cubs field offensively capable rosters with strong histories of run-scoring. A typical MLB game in late June produces 8...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities this season, and their recent games have tended to be high-scoring, indicating a likelihood of...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% under

Training data through 2023-09 shows average run totals in Cubs-Brewers games hover near 8.0-8.5 with pitching matchups often keeping games u...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Under 8.5

Given this is a divisional matchup between two historically competitive teams, games often feature tighter pitching and moderate scoring. Wh...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Given that the Brewers have a decent offense at home and the Cubs have shown they can score, the total runs are likely to be around or sligh...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% over 8.5

Given the offensive capabilities of both lineups and average starting pitchers, combined expected run production leans slightly over the sta...

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Spread

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 48% Chicago Cubs

The spread implies the Brewers are favored by 1.5 runs at home, which is reasonable given home-field advantage. However, the Cubs are a stro...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Milwaukee Brewers

Given the Brewers' strong home performance and the Cubs' road struggles, the Brewers are likely to win by at least one run.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Milwaukee Brewers

Training data through 2023-09 indicates Brewers cover the run line at home more often than not versus Chicago. Limited future information fo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

Building on the h2h prediction, if the Brewers win at home, there's a reasonable chance they do so by more than one run against a divisional...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Chicago Cubs +1.5

While the Brewers are favored, the Cubs often play close games, and a 1.5-run spread accounts for the possibility of a single-run victory fo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

The Brewers' home advantage and slightly stronger pitching staff give them a chance to win by multiple runs, but the Cubs are competitive. T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Milwaukee Brewers

First five innings typically reflect starting pitcher quality and early offensive momentum. The Brewers' home advantage and the nature of ea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have been strong early in games at home, suggesting they will lead after the first five innings.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Milwaukee Brewers

Training data through 2023-09 shows Milwaukee frequently leads or stays close after five innings at home against the Cubs. Early-game bullpe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Milwaukee Brewers

The first five innings often reflect the starting pitching matchup and initial offensive thrust. Historically, the Brewers have had strong s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee's tendency to start strong at home, coupled with their generally solid starting pitchers according to my training data, gives them...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers' strong early-inning pitching and home bullpen advantage in the first five frames gives them a slight edge. Cubs' offense often...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Pro on-demand

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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