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MLB
Final 2–8
Milwaukee Brewers logo

Milwaukee BrewersvsChicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final2–8 Locked 28picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Milwaukee Brewers 2–8 Chicago Cubs

All 7 AIs backed Milwaukee Brewers — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Milwaukee Brewers 7/7
Correct calls
0/7
Final
2–8

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Milwaukee Brewers L

As of my training data (through September 2024), the Brewers have been a stronger regular-season performer than the Cubs in recent years, wi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 71% Milwaukee Brewers L

Kyle Harrison presents a major starting-pitcher advantage over David Peterson (Harrison: elite K% and low ERA/xFIP; Peterson: recent high ER...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Milwaukee Brewers L

The Milwaukee Brewers have a strong home advantage, with a home win rate of 60% this season. The Chicago Cubs have struggled on the road, wi...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Milwaukee Brewers L

Milwaukee holds a slight home edge in this NL Central matchup based on historical patterns through 2025. Chicago's road performance tends to...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Milwaukee Brewers L

Based on my training data up to my last update, the Milwaukee Brewers often exhibit a strong home-field advantage against division rivals. W...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Milwaukee Brewers L

Based on training data through the 2026 season, the Milwaukee Brewers had a slightly better overall record and a favorable head-to-head reco...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Milwaukee Brewers L

Based on training data through mid-2025, the Brewers and Cubs are closely matched, but Milwaukee has a slight edge at home. The Brewers' pit...

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Spread

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 48% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 L

While I favor Milwaukee on the moneyline, a -1.5 spread is a higher bar that demands a comfortable home victory. The Cubs are division rival...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 L

Given the starting-pitcher gap (Harrison vs Peterson), Milwaukee has reasonable odds to win by more than one run; Harrison typically gives g...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago Cubs W

The Chicago Cubs have been covering the -1.5 spread in 55% of their away games this season. The Brewers have struggled to cover the -1.5 spr...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

The Brewers' home pitching staff has kept games close enough to cover the run line at a better than 50% clip in recent years. Cubs have stru...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Chicago Cubs +1.5 W

Even if the Milwaukee Brewers secure a win, divisional games often conclude with a narrow margin. My training data suggests that the Chicago...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Chicago Cubs W

While the Brewers are favored to win (h2h), the Cubs' ability to keep games close suggests they can cover a spread of -1.5, especially if th...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 L

Winning by 2 or more runs is tough in MLB; one-run games are common. Even with home advantage, the Brewers are unlikely to cover a -1.5 run...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5 W

NL Central divisional matchups typically produce moderate run totals; both the Brewers and Cubs have offensive weapons but also capable pitc...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% over W

The total is set around 8 runs and leans Over because David Peterson has allowed multiple runs in several recent starts and the Cubs' bullpe...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under L

Both teams have been averaging 4.5 runs per game over the past month, suggesting a low-scoring matchup. The Brewers' pitching staff has a 3....

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both clubs rank as average-to-above offenses in divisional play historically. June night games at Milwaukee venues have trended slightly ove...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under

Without specific pitching matchups for this future date, I anticipate a generally competitive, lower-scoring affair typical of division game...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over W

MLB games in general tend to have a moderate number of runs scored. While specific pitching matchups aren't available, a total of 7.5 runs i...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 85% Over 2.5 W

MLB games typically have more than 2.5 total runs; historical average is around 4.5 runs per game. Both teams have solid offenses, making Ov...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5 (First 5 Innings)

Early-game totals in divisional matchups often see cautious pitching and lower-velocity offenses in the first frame. Without knowledge of sp...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Milwaukee Brewers

Kyle Harrison usually provides a strong early-innings floor; his recent starts show multiple quality early frames, and David Peterson has be...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have a strong first-five innings record at home, leading in 65% of their home games at the five-inning mark. The Cubs have been...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee's early-inning offense and starter advantage historically produce a home edge through five frames. Cubs have allowed more first-fi...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 35% Draw

Predicting the first five innings without knowledge of starting pitchers for this future game is challenging. Both the Brewers and Cubs poss...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Milwaukee Brewers

First five innings heavily depend on starting pitchers, which are unknown. Brewers' home advantage gives a slight edge, but no recent form d...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

In the early innings, offenses often have an advantage against starting pitchers before they settle in. A total of 4.5 runs for the first fi...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Milwaukee Brewers

71
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Milwaukee Brewers

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Milwaukee Brewers

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Milwaukee Brewers

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Milwaukee Brewers

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Milwaukee Brewers

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Milwaukee Brewers

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: a113ceb7578f1952…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 27 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7061,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-27T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago Cubs",
        "home": "Milwaukee Brewers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-24T05:50:33+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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