Michigan State SpartansvsToledo Rockets

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

{
    "event": {
        "id": 17,
        "sport": "american-football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "NCAAF",
        "starts_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 05 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Toledo Rockets",
        "home": "Michigan State Spartans"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The quarterback matchup and O-line vs pass-rush battle dominate — a backup QB or injured tackle moves the line sharply.",
        "Turnovers and red-zone efficiency decide scoring; weigh recent ball-security trends.",
        "Weather is decisive outdoors: wind > ~15mph and cold suppress the passing game and kicking, favouring unders and the run.",
        "Rest matters — a bye week or short (Thursday) week changes preparation and legs.",
        "Check injuries to skill positions (WR1, RB1) and the secondary."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": {
            "away": 4.3,
            "home": 1.23
        },
        "note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
        "extra_markets": {
            "h2h": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.2,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.27,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.21,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.27,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.21,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.3,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.23,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.2,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.27,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.21,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.27,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.21,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.3,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.23,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.2,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.27,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.21,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.27,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.21,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.3,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.23,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                }
            ],
            "totals": [
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 48.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                }
            ],
            "spreads": [
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 9.5,
                    "price": 2.04,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -9.5,
                    "price": 1.74,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 11.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -11.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.9,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.99,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.93,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 11.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -11.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.9,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.99,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.93,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 9.5,
                    "price": 2.04,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -9.5,
                    "price": 1.74,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 11.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -11.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                },
                {
                    "point": 10.5,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Toledo Rockets"
                },
                {
                    "point": -10.5,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Michigan State Spartans"
                }
            ]
        }
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}