MLB

Upcoming · in 79h 47m

Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers

Kickoff · Wed, Jun 24 · 16:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 21 · 05:45 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    2a534cd20e3b7f45…

Kickoff: Wed, Jun 24 · 16:10 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5908,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-24T16:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 24 Jun 2026 16:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Texas Rangers",
        "home": "Miami Marlins"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-21T05:45:30+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings over 4.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 45-77 -42.0u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 41-69 -33.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 14-19 -11.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 271-325 -245.8u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 352-413 -339.3u	58% Texas Rangers	52% Over 8.5	51% Texas Rangers -1.5	54% Texas Rangers	—
Match winner ? 58% Texas Rangers Texas Rangers are favored in this matchup based on their stronger 2026 season trajectory. Miami Marlins have struggled with inconsistent pit... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both teams have moderate offensive capability in mid-2026, and a day game in late June typically favors hitters slightly. Neither team's pit... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Texas Rangers -1.5 The Rangers' depth and pitching consistency give them a slight edge to win by more than a run in this matchup. Miami's tendency to play one-... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Texas Rangers Early-inning advantage favors the Rangers, who typically start strong with reliable starter performance and disciplined early-game at-bats.... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 6-12 -10.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 144-116 -10.9u	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 255-240 -152.0u	60% Texas Rangers	55% over	60% Texas Rangers	55% Texas Rangers	—
Match winner ? 60% Texas Rangers The Texas Rangers have shown strong performance this season, with a solid record on the road. The Miami Marlins have struggled against top-t... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have potent offenses capable of scoring multiple runs. The Marlins' home ballpark is known for favoring hitters, which could lead... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 60% Texas Rangers The Rangers' strong performance and favorable head-to-head record suggest they can win by at least two runs. The Marlins have had difficulty... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Texas Rangers The Rangers' starting pitcher has been dominant in the early innings, and their offense tends to start strong. The Marlins have struggled to... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 3-7 -4.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 17-22 -9.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 335-345 -208.9u	55% Texas Rangers	52% over	51% Texas Rangers -1.5	53% Texas Rangers	—
Match winner ? 55% Texas Rangers Texas Rangers have held a stronger overall roster profile in training data through 2025 compared to the Marlins. Home advantage for Miami is... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Typical MLB run environment favors slight over in June day games. Marlins pitching has been inconsistent in prior seasons. Rangers lineup te... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Texas Rangers -1.5 Rangers projected as the better club overall so a small run-line lean to the visitor. Limited rest or injury data for 2026 forces reliance o... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Texas Rangers Early-game edge stays with the stronger Texas rotation and lineup in historical matchups. Miami has struggled to score in first five innings... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 13-25 -13.8u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 36-83 -55.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 312-348 -284.8u	60% Texas Rangers	55% Under 7.5	55% Texas Rangers -1.5	58% Texas Rangers	—
Match winner ? 60% Texas Rangers Based on historical team performance and general strength, the Texas Rangers are typically the stronger side compared to the Miami Marlins.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Under 7.5 The Miami Marlins often feature strong pitching, contributing to lower-scoring contests, even against potent offenses like the Texas Rangers... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Texas Rangers -1.5 Given the Texas Rangers' historical offensive power and overall team strength, they are favored to win by more than one run against the Miam... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 58% Texas Rangers The Texas Rangers typically feature a strong lineup and competitive starting pitching, giving them an edge in the early innings. Against the... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 284-382 -275.2u	55% Texas Rangers	52% over	51% Texas Rangers	—	53% over
Match winner ? 55% Texas Rangers The Texas Rangers have a stronger historical performance and a more consistent roster, giving them a slight edge over the Miami Marlins. Whi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Both teams possess offenses capable of scoring runs, and their recent games have shown a tendency towards moderate scoring. Considering the... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Texas Rangers Given the slight advantage of the Texas Rangers in head-to-head matchups and their generally more potent offense, they are predicted to cove... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? 53% over The early innings of baseball games often see teams establish momentum. Both the Miami Marlins and Texas Rangers have demonstrated the capac... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 359-406 -225.6u	55% Miami Marlins	52% Over 2.5	48% Texas Rangers -1.5	50% Miami Marlins	—
Match winner ? 55% Miami Marlins Marlins have a slight edge at home, but Rangers have a strong pitching staff. Without live injury/lineup data, I lean home based on historic... Unlock reasoning · Pro 1 source cited Over / Under ? 52% Over 2.5 Both teams have average offenses, but Marlins park can be hitter-friendly. Without live data, I slightly favor Over due to league-wide scori... Unlock reasoning · Pro 1 source cited Spread ? 48% Texas Rangers -1.5 Rangers have a deeper roster, but run line covers are tough. I give slight edge to the Marlins covering the spread at home, but low confiden... Unlock reasoning · Pro 1 source cited First 5 innings ? 50% Miami Marlins First five innings are unpredictable; I lean home due to starting pitcher advantage but with no data I call it even. Training data through S... Unlock reasoning · Pro 1 source cited First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	Texas Rangers 5/6	over 3/6	Texas Rangers -1.5 4/6	Texas Rangers 4/5	over 1/1

Match winner

Consensus
Texas Rangers 5/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers are favored in this matchup based on their stronger 2026 season trajectory. Miami Marlins have struggled with inconsistent pit...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have shown strong performance this season, with a solid record on the road. The Miami Marlins have struggled against top-t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 55% Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers have held a stronger overall roster profile in training data through 2025 compared to the Marlins. Home advantage for Miami is...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Texas Rangers

Based on historical team performance and general strength, the Texas Rangers are typically the stronger side compared to the Miami Marlins....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have a stronger historical performance and a more consistent roster, giving them a slight edge over the Miami Marlins. Whi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 55% Miami Marlins

Marlins have a slight edge at home, but Rangers have a strong pitching staff. Without live injury/lineup data, I lean home based on historic...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

1 source cited

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Both teams have moderate offensive capability in mid-2026, and a day game in late June typically favors hitters slightly. Neither team's pit...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have potent offenses capable of scoring multiple runs. The Marlins' home ballpark is known for favoring hitters, which could lead...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Typical MLB run environment favors slight over in June day games. Marlins pitching has been inconsistent in prior seasons. Rangers lineup te...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 7.5

The Miami Marlins often feature strong pitching, contributing to lower-scoring contests, even against potent offenses like the Texas Rangers...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Both teams possess offenses capable of scoring runs, and their recent games have shown a tendency towards moderate scoring. Considering the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 52% Over 2.5

Both teams have average offenses, but Marlins park can be hitter-friendly. Without live data, I slightly favor Over due to league-wide scori...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

1 source cited

Spread

Consensus
Texas Rangers -1.5 4/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Texas Rangers -1.5

The Rangers' depth and pitching consistency give them a slight edge to win by more than a run in this matchup. Miami's tendency to play one-...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% Texas Rangers

The Rangers' strong performance and favorable head-to-head record suggest they can win by at least two runs. The Marlins have had difficulty...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% Texas Rangers -1.5

Rangers projected as the better club overall so a small run-line lean to the visitor. Limited rest or injury data for 2026 forces reliance o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Texas Rangers -1.5

Given the Texas Rangers' historical offensive power and overall team strength, they are favored to win by more than one run against the Miam...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Texas Rangers

Given the slight advantage of the Texas Rangers in head-to-head matchups and their generally more potent offense, they are predicted to cove...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 48% Texas Rangers -1.5

Rangers have a deeper roster, but run line covers are tough. I give slight edge to the Marlins covering the spread at home, but low confiden...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

1 source cited

First 5 innings

Consensus
Texas Rangers 4/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Texas Rangers

Early-inning advantage favors the Rangers, who typically start strong with reliable starter performance and disciplined early-game at-bats....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Texas Rangers

The Rangers' starting pitcher has been dominant in the early innings, and their offense tends to start strong. The Marlins have struggled to...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 53% Texas Rangers

Early-game edge stays with the stronger Texas rotation and lineup in historical matchups. Miami has struggled to score in first five innings...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers typically feature a strong lineup and competitive starting pitching, giving them an edge in the early innings. Against the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 50% Miami Marlins

First five innings are unpredictable; I lean home due to starting pitcher advantage but with no data I call it even. Training data through S...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

1 source cited

First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 —

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini —

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast —

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash —

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

The early innings of baseball games often see teams establish momentum. Both the Miami Marlins and Texas Rangers have demonstrated the capac...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 1 source

1 citation captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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