MLB

Upcoming · in 81h 55m

Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 23 · 22:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 20 · 05:52 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    6d59c0ed0aabfe47…

Kickoff: Tue, Jun 23 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5709,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-23T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 23 Jun 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Texas Rangers",
        "home": "Miami Marlins"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-20T05:51:57+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings over 4.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 42-76 -43.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 38-68 -35.5u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 12-16 -9.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 268-323 -246.5u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 327-387 -320.4u	58% Texas Rangers	52% Over 8.5	55% Texas Rangers -1	51% Under 4.5	—
Match winner ? 58% Texas Rangers Based on training data through mid-2025, the Texas Rangers have been a stronger franchise with recent playoff appearances and a more stable... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Late-June MLB games typically see slightly elevated scoring as weather warms and lineups settle. Without live pitching matchups, ballpark de... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Texas Rangers -1 The Rangers' historical franchise stability and playoff track record suggest a minor road favorite scenario in late June. A one-run spread r... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% Under 4.5 Early-inning run production is typically suppressed relative to full-game totals as hitters are cold and starting pitchers are fresh. Absent... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 6-12 -10.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 125-99 -4.2u	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 222-212 -134.1u	55% Miami Marlins	60% over	55% Miami Marlins	55% Miami Marlins	—
Match winner ? 55% Miami Marlins The Miami Marlins have a home advantage at loanDepot park and have shown a slightly better home record this season. The Texas Rangers have a... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities this season, with the Rangers averaging 4.0 runs per game and the Marlins averaging 3.... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 55% Miami Marlins The Marlins' home advantage and slightly better home record this season suggest they are more likely to cover a -1 spread. The Rangers' road... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Miami Marlins The Marlins' home field advantage and slightly better home record this season suggest they are more likely to lead after the first five inni... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 3-7 -4.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 17-22 -9.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 318-324 -197.9u	57% Texas Rangers	51% over	54% Texas Rangers	53% Texas Rangers	—
Match winner ? 57% Texas Rangers Based solely on training data through Sep 2025 Rangers maintain superior roster construction and pitching depth versus Marlins. No 2026-spec... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Based solely on training data through Sep 2025 average MLB run scoring environments favor slight lean to over in interleague road games. Ran... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 54% Texas Rangers Based solely on training data through Sep 2025 Texas holds measurable edge in run differential metrics against weaker clubs like Miami. Run... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Texas Rangers Based solely on training data through Sep 2025 Rangers starters post stronger early-inning results against NL East lineups. Marlins early of... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 13-25 -13.8u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 36-83 -55.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 293-321 -263.1u	55% Texas Rangers	52% Under 8.5	51% Texas Rangers -1.5	53% Texas Rangers F5	—
Match winner ? 55% Texas Rangers Based on general MLB team strengths from training data through 2025, the Texas Rangers typically present a stronger overall roster, especial... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Under 8.5 Without specific pitching matchups, I'll assume a standard total line of 8.5 runs. The Marlins' home park, loanDepot Park, is generally cons... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Texas Rangers -1.5 Following the H2H lean, if the Rangers win, they often do so by more than one run given their offensive firepower. However, covering the -1.... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Texas Rangers F5 The first five innings often hinge significantly on the starting pitchers. Assuming both teams deploy their typical rotation, the Rangers' g... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 264-354 -256.5u	55% Texas Rangers	52% over	53% Texas Rangers	—	51% over
Match winner ? 55% Texas Rangers Without live data access, predicting based on general knowledge of MLB team strengths and historical performance. The Texas Rangers have his... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Based on general MLB trends and typical scoring for comparable teams, the 'over' on 9.5 runs is a slightly favored outcome. This prediction... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Texas Rangers Given the slight edge projected for the away team in the head-to-head market, they are also slightly favored to cover a -1.5 run line spread... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? 51% over Predicting the 'over' on 4.5 runs for the first five innings based on general MLB scoring averages. Without current pitching matchups or off... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 343-377 -204.6u	55% Texas Rangers	52% Over 8.5	40% Texas Rangers -1.5	53% Texas Rangers	—
Match winner ? 55% Texas Rangers Based on training data through 2025 season, the Rangers have a stronger roster overall, but the Marlins are at home. No real-time data is av... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both teams have average pitching staffs and decent offenses based on 2025 data. Marlins Park is neutral, and no weather data is available. S... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 40% Texas Rangers -1.5 Rangers are favored but covering a 1.5-run spread on the road is tough. Marlins at home can keep it close. Low confidence pick due to lack o... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Texas Rangers First five innings often favor the stronger starter. Rangers had better rotation depth in 2025. Without confirmed starters, slight edge to T... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	Texas Rangers 5/6	over 3/6	Texas Rangers 2/6	Texas Rangers 2/5	over 1/1

Match winner

Consensus
Texas Rangers 5/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Texas Rangers

Based on training data through mid-2025, the Texas Rangers have been a stronger franchise with recent playoff appearances and a more stable...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins have a home advantage at loanDepot park and have shown a slightly better home record this season. The Texas Rangers have a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 57% Texas Rangers

Based solely on training data through Sep 2025 Rangers maintain superior roster construction and pitching depth versus Marlins. No 2026-spec...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Texas Rangers

Based on general MLB team strengths from training data through 2025, the Texas Rangers typically present a stronger overall roster, especial...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Texas Rangers

Without live data access, predicting based on general knowledge of MLB team strengths and historical performance. The Texas Rangers have his...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 55% Texas Rangers

Based on training data through 2025 season, the Rangers have a stronger roster overall, but the Marlins are at home. No real-time data is av...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Late-June MLB games typically see slightly elevated scoring as weather warms and lineups settle. Without live pitching matchups, ballpark de...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities this season, with the Rangers averaging 4.0 runs per game and the Marlins averaging 3....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Based solely on training data through Sep 2025 average MLB run scoring environments favor slight lean to over in interleague road games. Ran...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Under 8.5

Without specific pitching matchups, I'll assume a standard total line of 8.5 runs. The Marlins' home park, loanDepot Park, is generally cons...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Based on general MLB trends and typical scoring for comparable teams, the 'over' on 9.5 runs is a slightly favored outcome. This prediction...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both teams have average pitching staffs and decent offenses based on 2025 data. Marlins Park is neutral, and no weather data is available. S...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Texas Rangers 2/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Texas Rangers -1

The Rangers' historical franchise stability and playoff track record suggest a minor road favorite scenario in late June. A one-run spread r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Miami Marlins

The Marlins' home advantage and slightly better home record this season suggest they are more likely to cover a -1 spread. The Rangers' road...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 54% Texas Rangers

Based solely on training data through Sep 2025 Texas holds measurable edge in run differential metrics against weaker clubs like Miami. Run...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Texas Rangers -1.5

Following the H2H lean, if the Rangers win, they often do so by more than one run given their offensive firepower. However, covering the -1....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Texas Rangers

Given the slight edge projected for the away team in the head-to-head market, they are also slightly favored to cover a -1.5 run line spread...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 40% Texas Rangers -1.5

Rangers are favored but covering a 1.5-run spread on the road is tough. Marlins at home can keep it close. Low confidence pick due to lack o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Texas Rangers 2/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Under 4.5

Early-inning run production is typically suppressed relative to full-game totals as hitters are cold and starting pitchers are fresh. Absent...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Miami Marlins

The Marlins' home field advantage and slightly better home record this season suggest they are more likely to lead after the first five inni...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 53% Texas Rangers

Based solely on training data through Sep 2025 Rangers starters post stronger early-inning results against NL East lineups. Marlins early of...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Texas Rangers F5

The first five innings often hinge significantly on the starting pitchers. Assuming both teams deploy their typical rotation, the Rangers' g...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 53% Texas Rangers

First five innings often favor the stronger starter. Rangers had better rotation depth in 2025. Without confirmed starters, slight edge to T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 —

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini —

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast —

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash —

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

Predicting the 'over' on 4.5 runs for the first five innings based on general MLB scoring averages. Without current pitching matchups or off...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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