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MLB
Final 4–3
Miami Marlins logo

Miami MarlinsvsSan Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final4–3 Locked 24picks · 14 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus missed

Miami Marlins 4–3 San Francisco Giants

3 of 6 AIs leaned San Francisco Giants — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
San Francisco Giants 3/6
Correct calls
3/6
Final
4–3

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 8.5 W

Late Friday night baseball typically sees softer offensive production due to fatigue and reduced visibility. Miami's bullpen has been solid...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities this season, and the warm Miami weather is conducive to higher-scoring games. The over...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Miami home games have trended slightly higher scoring in recent seasons; both clubs feature lineups capable of multi-run innings. Training d...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5 W

Both the Marlins and Giants historically tend to play in lower-scoring games, often featuring good pitching and sometimes inconsistent offen...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over L

Historically, games between these two teams tend to be moderately scoring. Considering the offensive capabilities and pitching styles presen...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both offenses are average but pitching staffs are middle-tier; Miami's park is neutral. Expect moderate scoring, slight lean to over due to...

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Match winner

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Miami Marlins W

Miami enters as home favorite in a late Friday night matchup. Both teams have been middling in 2026; the Marlins' home-field advantage and s...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Miami Marlins W

The Miami Marlins have a home advantage at loanDepot park and have shown a slightly better home record this season. The San Francisco Giants...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% San Francisco Giants L

Giants have historically been the stronger franchise with better pitching depth; Marlins remain rebuilding. Training knowledge through 2025-...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% San Francisco Giants L

Based on general historical team profiles from training data through early 2023, the San Francisco Giants often demonstrate slightly more co...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% San Francisco Giants L

Based on training data, the San Francisco Giants generally hold a historical advantage over the Miami Marlins. The Giants typically exhibit...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Miami Marlins W

Training data suggests the Marlins have a slight home-field advantage and decent recent form, while the Giants are competitive but inconsist...

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Spread

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% San Francisco Giants +1.5 W

While Miami is favored in the match, the +1.5 underdog pricing for the Giants offers slight value. San Francisco's rotation depth and defens...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Miami Marlins

Given the Marlins' home advantage and the Giants' road struggles, the Marlins are likely to cover a -1 spread in this matchup.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% San Francisco Giants

Run-line value favors the Giants given superior rotation depth in historical matchups. Marlins bullpen volatility often allows visiting team...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Miami Marlins +1.5 W

While the Giants might have a slight edge historically based on training data through early 2023, baseball games are often decided by one ru...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% San Francisco Giants L

The Giants' historical edge, combined with a tendency for them to win by a margin when favored, suggests they are more likely to cover a -1....

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Miami Marlins -1.5 L

Run line -1.5 is tough for a near-coin flip game. Marlins would need to win by 2+, which is less likely than a close game. Giants covering t...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Miami Marlins 2/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 4.5

Opening pitching matchups tend to feature strong early execution, especially in night games where lineups are less settled. Both Miami and S...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Miami Marlins

The Marlins' home advantage and the Giants' road performance suggest the Marlins may lead after the first five innings.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% San Francisco Giants

Giants' starting pitching has historically held early leads against Miami; first-five outcomes track closely with full-game moneyline. Absen...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% San Francisco Giants

The first five innings often heavily reflect the starting pitching matchup and early offensive execution. Historically, based on training da...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% Miami Marlins

Early innings often favor the home team and starting pitchers. With even matchups, slight edge to Marlins in first five.

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First five innings over 3.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

In the early innings, games often see moderate scoring as pitchers settle in. A total of 3.5 runs for the first five innings presents a slig...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Miami Marlins

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Miami Marlins

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

San Francisco Giants

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

San Francisco Giants

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

San Francisco Giants

53
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Miami Marlins

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 77adb818ae0a1756…
Kickoff
Fri, Jun 19 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 3794,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-19T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 19 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "San Francisco Giants",
        "home": "Miami Marlins"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T06:04:55+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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