MexicovsEcuador

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 8. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 8, in this order): h2h | draw_no_bet | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

{
    "event": {
        "id": 8277,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": "Estadio Banorte",
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-01T01:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 01 Jul 2026 01:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Ecuador",
        "home": "Mexico"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Weight CONFIRMED team news heavily: a missing first-choice striker, creator, or centre-back swings a match more than season-long form.",
        "Compare attacking vs defensive quality directly — clean-sheet rate and goals-conceded trend often predict unders/BTTS better than the win line.",
        "Set pieces decide tight games: note corner/free-kick threat and aerial mismatches.",
        "Account for fixture congestion + likely rotation (midweek European or cup games before this one) and the home/away form split.",
        "For outdoor venues, factor heavy rain or strong wind — both suppress goals and favour the under.",
        "Tactical style matters: a high-press side vs a possession side, or two defensive setups, shapes the goals expectation."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWDDL",
            "record": "2W-2D-1L",
            "scored": 4,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 3
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWWW",
            "record": "5W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 10,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 0
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 5,
            "home": 6
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": {
            "away": 3.9,
            "draw": 3.14,
            "home": 2.35
        },
        "note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
        "extra_markets": {
            "h2h": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.8,
                    "outcome": "Ecuador"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.1,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.21,
                    "outcome": "Mexico"
                }
            ],
            "btts": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.18,
                    "outcome": "No"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.45,
                    "outcome": "Yes"
                }
            ],
            "totals": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.36,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.95,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.3,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.2,
                    "outcome": "Under 6.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.2,
                    "outcome": "Over 6.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.39,
                    "outcome": "Under 5.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.85,
                    "outcome": "Over 5.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.1,
                    "outcome": "Under 7.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 6.2,
                    "outcome": "Over 7.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.75,
                    "outcome": "Under 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "Over 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.01,
                    "outcome": "Under 10.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 12.5,
                    "outcome": "Over 10.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.02,
                    "outcome": "Under 9.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 11,
                    "outcome": "Over 9.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.05,
                    "outcome": "Under 8.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 8.5,
                    "outcome": "Over 8.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 12,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.02,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.45,
                    "outcome": "Under 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.52,
                    "outcome": "Over 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.9,
                    "outcome": "Under 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.23,
                    "outcome": "Over 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 7.1,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.08,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.09,
                    "outcome": "Under 6.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 6.6,
                    "outcome": "Over 6.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.2,
                    "outcome": "Under 5.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.25,
                    "outcome": "Over 5.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.03,
                    "outcome": "Under 7.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 9.75,
                    "outcome": "Over 7.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.45,
                    "outcome": "Under 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.65,
                    "outcome": "Over 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.01,
                    "outcome": "Under 8.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 12.5,
                    "outcome": "Over 8.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 11.75,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.02,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.98,
                    "outcome": "Under 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.78,
                    "outcome": "Over 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.2,
                    "outcome": "Under 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.32,
                    "outcome": "Over 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 6.1,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.1,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.16,
                    "outcome": "Under 6.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.75,
                    "outcome": "Over 6.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.34,
                    "outcome": "Under 5.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.05,
                    "outcome": "Over 5.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.07,
                    "outcome": "Under 7.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 7.4,
                    "outcome": "Over 7.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.72,
                    "outcome": "Under 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "Over 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.01,
                    "outcome": "Under 9.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 12.5,
                    "outcome": "Over 9.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.03,
                    "outcome": "Under 8.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 10.25,
                    "outcome": "Over 8.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 13,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.01,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.5,
                    "outcome": "Under 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.5,
                    "outcome": "Over 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.3,
                    "outcome": "Under 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.19,
                    "outcome": "Over 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 8.25,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.05,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.65,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.47,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.09,
                    "outcome": "Under 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 7.1,
                    "outcome": "Over 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.37,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.05,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.39,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.05,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.55,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.45,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.35,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.6,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.01,
                    "outcome": "Under 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 14,
                    "outcome": "Over 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.06,
                    "outcome": "Under 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 8.5,
                    "outcome": "Over 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.29,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.6,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.01,
                    "outcome": "Under 5.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 16,
                    "outcome": "Over 5.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.05,
                    "outcome": "Under 4.5"
                }
            ],
            "spreads": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.07,
                    "outcome": "Away +0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.7,
                    "outcome": "Home +0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.1,
                    "outcome": "Away +1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.33,
                    "outcome": "Home +1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.9,
                    "outcome": "Away +0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Home +0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.35,
                    "outcome": "Away -0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.05,
                    "outcome": "Home -0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.29,
                    "outcome": "Away -2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.2,
                    "outcome": "Home -2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.4,
                    "outcome": "Away +1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.26,
                    "outcome": "Home +1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.52,
                    "outcome": "Away -1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.32,
                    "outcome": "Home -1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.5,
                    "outcome": "Away +0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.45,
                    "outcome": "Home +0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.88,
                    "outcome": "Away -0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.78,
                    "outcome": "Home -0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.1,
                    "outcome": "Away +0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.24,
                    "outcome": "Home +0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.4,
                    "outcome": "Away +0.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.33,
                    "outcome": "Home +0.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.62,
                    "outcome": "Away -0.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.32,
                    "outcome": "Home -0.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.39,
                    "outcome": "Away -0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3,
                    "outcome": "Home -0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.24,
                    "outcome": "Away -0.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.1,
                    "outcome": "Home -0.75"
                }
            ]
        }
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "draw_no_bet",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft",
        "correct_score"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}