Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelle Kenema

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 16 · 10:00 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 14 · 07:43 GMT+0000 42 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    3d414f9df87c42b8…

Sport: Tue, Jun 16 · 10:00 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft · correct_score
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 7. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 7, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 1898,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Premier League",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T10:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Mekelle Kenema",
        "home": "Mebrat Hayl"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T07:43:25+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft",
        "correct_score"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

7 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 7 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Both teams to score ?	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	Asian handicap ?	Half-time / Full-time ?	Correct score ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 7 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 7 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 7 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 7 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	56% no	58% Mebrat Hayl	54% under	52% Mebrat Hayl	55% Mebrat Hayl	42% home-home	18% 1-0
Both teams to score ? 56% no BTTS markets typically favor defensive stability in fixture congestion periods. June often sees tactical, lower-scoring matches. Mekelle Ken... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 58% Mebrat Hayl Mebrat Hayl as home team typically enjoys advantage in domestic league play. Without access to current form data, lineups, or recent injury... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% under June league fixtures often feature defensive approaches and tactical caution late in season. Without detailed attacking stats or recent scor... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Mebrat Hayl A -1 home spread requires Mebrat Hayl to win by at least two goals. Home advantage is real, but two-goal margins are relatively rare in comp... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Mebrat Hayl Asian handicap typically favors home teams with a half-goal advantage (e.g., -0.5). Mebrat Hayl as home should have a slight edge over Mekel... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 42% home-home Home-home (Mebrat leading at half and full-time) is the modal outcome for a home-favored fixture but only 42% likely given match variance. M... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? 18% 1-0 1-0 home win is the single most common scoreline in domestic league play, but no team-specific xG, defensive record, or recent match data is... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 7 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 7 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 7 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	58% no	48% Mebrat Hayl	55% under	42% Mebrat Hayl	47% Mebrat Hayl	29% draw/home	18% 1-0
Both teams to score ? 58% no Both teams lack recent profile data; lean no BTTS given expected low-scoring affair in this future fixture from training cutoff knowledge. Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 48% Mebrat Hayl Future match in 2026 with no public data available. Training knowledge through 2023 shows limited H2H for these Ethiopian sides; home side g... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% under Obscure fixture with no recent scoring data; predict under 2.5 goals as conservative default for low-profile league match with unknown attac... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 42% Mebrat Hayl Home team receives -1 spread but limited knowledge favors away covering given uncertainty; training data cutoff prevents deeper analysis. Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 47% Mebrat Hayl Asian handicap leans slightly to home in absence of form; future match forces reliance on generic home bias from pre-2024 knowledge. Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 29% draw/home Most probable half-time full-time outcome estimated as draw then home win based on typical patterns for unknown sides; no live data forces g... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? 18% 1-0 Low-scoring 1-0 predicted as most likely in data-poor future match; probabilities reflect conservative estimates from stale league knowledge... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 7 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	65% No	40% Mekelle Kenema	70% Under 2.5	65% Mekelle Kenema +1	75% Mekelle Kenema +0.5	35% Draw/Draw	18% 0-1
Both teams to score ? 65% No Consistent with the expectation of a low-scoring match in the Ethiopian Premier League, it is more likely that one or neither team will scor... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 40% Mekelle Kenema Based on historical general knowledge from my training data through late 2025, Mekelle Kenema has often been a more competitive side in the... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 70% Under 2.5 The Ethiopian Premier League is typically characterized by low-scoring matches, with a strong emphasis on defensive play. Therefore, based o... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 65% Mekelle Kenema +1 Given the general expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair and the historical competitiveness of Mekelle Kenema, it is highly improbable t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 75% Mekelle Kenema +0.5 Assuming a standard Asian Handicap line where Mekelle Kenema receives a +0.5 goal advantage, this pick aligns with the expectation of a draw... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 35% Draw/Draw In a league known for low-scoring matches and often tight contests, a Draw/Draw outcome is highly probable. Neither team is expected to domi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? 18% 0-1 Given the expectation of a low-scoring match and a slight lean towards Mekelle Kenema based on historical competitiveness, a 0-1 away win is... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	58% no	55% Mebrat Hayl	60% under	55% Mebrat Hayl	55% home_0.0	35% draw-draw	15% 1-1
Both teams to score ? 58% no Given the assumption of a potentially lower-scoring game and the general trend that both teams may struggle to score consistently against ea... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Mebrat Hayl Without access to current team data, I am relying on my training knowledge. Based on general historical performance trends for teams with na... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% under Based on my training data, matches involving teams with less prominent profiles often tend to be lower-scoring affairs due to potential diff... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Mebrat Hayl The home team is slightly favored in the head-to-head prediction. Therefore, a -1 spread is more likely to favor them, assuming they can at... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% home_0.0 With no specific bookmaker odds, I am using the head-to-head prediction. A neutral handicap of 0.0 on the home team suggests they are slight... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 35% draw-draw Considering the overall prediction of a low-scoring, potentially cagey affair, a 'draw-draw' outcome for the half-time/full-time market seem... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? 15% 1-1 Given the prediction of a low-scoring game and a potential draw, a 1-1 scoreline is the most likely outcome. This reflects a match where bot... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	55% no	45% Mebrat Hayl	60% under 2.5	25% Mebrat Hayl -1	55% Mekelle Kenema +0.25	35% draw/draw	30% 1-1
Both teams to score ? 55% no Both teams have defensive records that suggest they struggle to score consistently. The match is likely to be tight, with at least one team... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 45% Mebrat Hayl Mebrat Hayl have home advantage and a slightly better historical record in the Ethiopian Premier League. However, both teams are mid-table s... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% under 2.5 Ethiopian Premier League matches historically tend to be low-scoring, with both teams averaging less than 2.5 goals per game. Lack of recent... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 25% Mebrat Hayl -1 A -1 spread is aggressive for a match between two evenly matched sides. Mebrat Hayl's home advantage is not strong enough to justify a multi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Mekelle Kenema +0.25 Mekelle Kenema are underdogs but expected to keep the match close. The +0.25 handicap offers protection against a narrow loss while providin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 35% draw/draw The most likely scenario is a cautious first half ending in a draw, with the second half also ending in a stalemate given the parity. Other... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? 30% 1-1 A 1-1 draw reflects the balanced nature of the teams and the likely low-scoring outcome. Other scores like 0-0 or 1-0 are also possible, but... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	no 4/6	Mebrat Hayl 5/6	under 4/6	Mebrat Hayl 3/6	Mebrat Hayl 2/6	home/home 1/6	1-0 3/6

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