Luana Santos vs Karol Rosa
KRKickoff · Sat, Jun 20 · 21:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
73bac6dcb7c9fa10…
- Kickoff
- Sat, Jun 20 · 21:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Method of victory · Goes the distance · Round group
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | method_finish | goes_distance | round_group
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 264,
"sport": "mma",
"venue": null,
"league": "MMA",
"starts_at": "2026-06-20T21:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sat, 20 Jun 2026 21:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Karol Rosa",
"home": "Luana Santos"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-17T05:53:08+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"away": 1.81,
"draw": 33,
"home": 2.2
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
"extra_markets": {
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.64,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.64,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.14,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.72,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 33,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.16,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.81,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.15,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.64,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.64,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.14,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.72,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 33,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.16,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.81,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.15,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.64,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.64,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.14,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.72,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 33,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.16,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.81,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.15,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.64,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.64,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.14,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.72,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 33,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.16,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.81,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.15,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Luana Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Karol Rosa"
}
],
"totals": [
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Over"
}
]
}
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"method_finish",
"goes_distance",
"round_group"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
book: Karol Rosa 55% |
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
|
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
56%
Karol Rosa
~1.81
|
52%
Decision |
58%
Yes |
48%
Round 2–3 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
56%
Karol Rosa Market consensus shows Karol Rosa favored (1.81 vs 2.2 for Santos), implying ~55% implied probability. Rosa's edge in the implied odds and b...
Odds: 1.81
Edge: +0.8%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
52%
Decision Without access to fighter-specific striking or grappling metrics, recent finishes, or stylistic breakdown, I estimate based on typical women...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
58%
Yes MMA women's bouts go the distance (all three rounds, or full duration of a championship fight) roughly 55–60% of the time at the UFC/top pro...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
48%
Round 2–3 MMA fights that don't end in round 1 (which occur ~25–30% of the time) are most likely to be decided in round 2, when fatigue and adjustment... |
|||||
|
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
63%
Luana Santos
~2.20
|
55%
decision |
65%
yes |
50%
rounds 1-2 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
63%
Luana Santos Luana Santos has a strong record of 9 wins and 2 losses, with 5 wins by submission, indicating a solid grappling game. Karol Rosa has a reco...
Odds: 2.20
Edge: +17.6%
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
55%
decision Both fighters have a mix of finishes and decisions in their records. Luana Santos has 5 wins by submission, while Karol Rosa has 4 wins by k...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
65%
yes The Forebet algorithm predicts a 63% chance of Luana Santos winning by points, indicating the fight is likely to go the distance. ([forebet....
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
50%
rounds 1-2 Both fighters have a mix of finishes and decisions in their records. The Forebet algorithm predicts a 63% chance of Luana Santos winning by...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
|
|||||
|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
58%
Karol Rosa
~1.81
|
67%
Decision |
71%
Yes |
74%
3 Rounds |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Karol Rosa Karol Rosa holds a slight edge in experience and recent UFC performances against comparable opposition. Luana Santos is a dangerous prospect...
Odds: 1.81
Edge: +2.8%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
67%
Decision Both fighters prefer controlled striking and wrestling exchanges over wild finishes. Santos has one career finish but tends to go the distan...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
71%
Yes Style matchup favors a measured pace with low finish rates historically for both. Recent form shows Santos and Rosa each going the distance...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
74%
3 Rounds Fight scheduled for three rounds with both athletes showing cardio to reach the final bell. Low finish probability in opening rounds support... |
|||||
|
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
58%
Karol Rosa
~1.81
|
65%
Decision |
65%
Yes |
65%
Decision |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Karol Rosa Karol Rosa holds a significant experience advantage, having consistently faced higher-level competition in the UFC. Her proven durability, h...
Odds: 1.81
Edge: +2.8%
2 sources cited
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
65%
Decision Both Luana Santos and Karol Rosa primarily fight to a decision, especially in their recent UFC bouts. Karol Rosa is renowned for her excepti...
2 sources cited
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
65%
Yes Considering both fighters' history, the fight is highly likely to go the full duration. Karol Rosa's fights frequently go to the judges' sco...
2 sources cited
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
65%
Decision Given the high probability of the fight going to decision, this outcome is the most heavily weighted. If a finish were to occur, it's slight...
2 sources cited
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
57%
Karol Rosa
~1.81
|
55%
Decision |
60%
Yes |
35%
Round 3 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
57%
Karol Rosa Karol Rosa is the more experienced fighter with a stronger professional record, although Luana Santos presents a significant submission thre...
Odds: 1.81
Edge: +1.8%
3 sources cited
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
55%
Decision Both fighters have a significant number of wins by decision on their records. While Santos is a submission threat, Rosa has shown the abilit...
3 sources cited
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
60%
Yes The majority of wins for both fighters come via decision, indicating a tendency for fights to go the distance. Neither fighter has an overwh...
3 sources cited
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
35%
Round 3 Given that a decision is the most likely outcome, the fight is expected to go the full three rounds. Both fighters have shown the capability...
3 sources cited
|
|||||
|
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
60%
Karol Rosa
~1.81
|
65%
Decision |
65%
Yes |
65%
Rd 4 or 5 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Karol Rosa Karol Rosa is the more experienced fighter with a higher level of competition faced. Luana Santos is a prospect but may not be ready for a s...
Odds: 1.81
Edge: +4.8%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
65%
Decision Both fighters have low finishing rates; Rosa has 7 decisions in 10 UFC wins, Santos wins mostly by decision. Neither has a clear power or su...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
65%
Yes As noted, both fighters historically go the distance. Neither is a big finisher, and Santos has not shown one-punch power or dominant grappl...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
65%
Rd 4 or 5 If it ends early it's unlikely; if it goes distance it ends in round 3, so the 'Rd 4 or 5' label (which includes decision) is the most proba... |
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Consensus |
Karol Rosa 5/6 |
Decision 5/6 |
Yes 5/6 |
3 Rounds 1/6 |
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Bookmaker line |
Karol Rosa 55% |
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Bookmaker odds
13 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Luana Santos | Draw | Karol Rosa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.20 | — | 1.71 |
| Draftkings ↗ | 2.20 | — | 1.70 |
| Fanduel ↗ | 2.10 | — | 1.71 |
| Betfair UK | 2.10 | — | 1.73 |
| BetOnline | 2.15 | — | 1.74 |
| Betsson | 2.20 | — | 1.64 |
| Betus | 2.14 | — | 1.74 |
| Betway | 2.05 | — | 1.73 |
| Nordicbet | 2.20 | — | 1.64 |
| Onexbet | 2.16 | 33.00 | 1.81 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10 | — | 1.73 |
| Sport888 | 2.10 | — | 1.73 |
| Unibet | 2.10 | — | 1.72 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Onexbet | 2.5 | 1.22 | 4.00 |
| Book | Luana Santos | Karol Rosa |
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Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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4 tool calls · 4 sources
4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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0 tool calls · 3 sources
3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
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0 tool calls · 2 sources
2 citations captured — unlock with Pro
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