Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 16 · 02:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 14 · 07:33 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    391a562a05b1e6b7…

Sport: Tue, Jun 16 · 02:10 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2797,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T02:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 02:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Tampa Bay Rays",
        "home": "Los Angeles Dodgers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T07:30:05+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	58% Los Angeles Dodgers	54% Over 8.5	56% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5	55% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 58% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers are a consistently strong franchise with superior regular-season depth and payroll, while the Rays typically punch above their w... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% Over 8.5 MLB mid-season matchups typically see moderate run totals; neither team's 2026 offensive profile is known. The Dodgers historically score co... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 56% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 The Dodgers' historical superiority in roster depth and winning consistency supports a mild run-line favorite position at home. The Rays are... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers Early-inning advantage typically correlates with offensive firepower and starting pitcher quality. The Dodgers' deeper batting lineup should... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	55% Los Angeles Dodgers	60% over	55% Los Angeles Dodgers	55% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers The Los Angeles Dodgers have a strong home advantage at Dodger Stadium, with a home record of 21-11. ([baseball-reference.com](https://www.b... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have strong offensive capabilities, with the Dodgers averaging 5.3 runs per game and the Rays 4.8. ([thescore.com](https://www.th... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers' home advantage and recent form suggest they are likely to cover a -1 spread. Their strong home record and recent performance ma... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers' strong home performance and recent form suggest they are likely to lead after the first five innings. Their home advantage and... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	62% Los Angeles Dodgers	53% over	51% home_-1.5	58% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 62% Los Angeles Dodgers Dodgers remain the stronger roster on paper with superior depth and pitching. Rays have shown inconsistency on the road. Training data throu... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over Both offenses project above average. June weather in LA tends to favor hitters. Training data through 2025 shows slight lean to overs in Dod... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% home_-1.5 Dodgers favored by roughly 1.5 runs based on talent gap. Rays bullpen can keep games close but rarely win outright on the road. Training dat... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 58% Los Angeles Dodgers LA's projected starter holds a clear advantage in the early innings. Rays lineup struggles against lefties early. Training data through 2025... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	58% Los Angeles Dodgers	55% Under	52% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5	45% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 58% Los Angeles Dodgers Based on historical performance and general team construction, the Los Angeles Dodgers typically present a strong challenge, especially at h... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Under While both teams can score, the Tampa Bay Rays are typically known for strong pitching and defensive strategies. Assuming a competitive matc... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 If the Dodgers win, their potent offense often leads to victories by more than one run, making the -1.5 run line a plausible outcome for a f... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 45% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers historically field strong starting rotations, giving them an edge in the early innings of a game. While the Rays also prioritize... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	60% Los Angeles Dodgers	55% over	52% Tampa Bay Rays	58% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 60% Los Angeles Dodgers Based on training data through early 2026, the Los Angeles Dodgers generally have a stronger roster and a better historical performance reco... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Interleague games can sometimes see higher run totals due to mismatches in pitching or hitting, and both teams have shown offensive capabili... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Tampa Bay Rays While the Dodgers are favored to win, the Rays often play close games and have a knack for keeping deficits small. Betting against the sprea... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 58% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers often start games strong, especially at home, leveraging their top-tier starting pitchers and consistent lineup to build early l... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	62% Los Angeles Dodgers	65% Over 7.5	55% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5	60% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 62% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers have a superior lineup and home-field advantage at Dodger Stadium. While the Rays are well-coached, their recent form and travel... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 65% Over 7.5 Both teams have potent offenses, and the Dodgers' bullpen has been inconsistent. Dodger Stadium is typically neutral for run-scoring, but wi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 The Dodgers are strong at home, but the Rays are competitive and often keep games close. A -1.5 spread is risky; slight lean to Dodgers cove... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 60% Los Angeles Dodgers Dodgers' starters have better ERA and strikeout rates than Rays' projected starter. First five innings favor the deeper rotation of LA, espe... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Los Angeles Dodgers 7/7	over 4/7	Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 4/7	Los Angeles Dodgers 6/7

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

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