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MLB
Final 1–12
Los Angeles Dodgers logo

Los Angeles DodgersvsBaltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final1–12 Locked 24picks · 12 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Los Angeles Dodgers 1–12 Baltimore Orioles

All 6 AIs backed Los Angeles Dodgers — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Los Angeles Dodgers 6/6
Correct calls
0/6
Final
1–12

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Los Angeles Dodgers 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 L

The Dodgers' superior franchise depth and home-field advantage at Dodger Stadium support a modest spread favorite position. A 1.5-run spread...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Los Angeles Dodgers L

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a strong home record of 24-12 and are leading the NL West division with a 41-23 record as of June 16, 2026. The...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Los Angeles Dodgers

Training data through 2025-09 shows Dodgers routinely cover run lines at home against AL East visitors. Orioles bullpen inconsistencies allo...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 L

Based on historical performance captured in my training data (pre-2026), the Los Angeles Dodgers, especially at home, frequently win by marg...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Los Angeles Dodgers

Given the prediction that the Dodgers are slightly favored in head-to-head matchups, they are also more likely to cover a standard spread. T...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Baltimore Orioles +1.5 W

Dodgers are strong but may not cover a 1.5-run spread; Orioles often keep games close. In 2024, Orioles were competitive against top teams....

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Match winner

Consensus
Los Angeles Dodgers 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Los Angeles Dodgers L

The Dodgers are a strong franchise with consistent winning culture and deeper roster resources. Baltimore has shown competitiveness in recen...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Los Angeles Dodgers L

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a strong home record of 24-12 and are leading the NL West division with a 41-23 record as of June 16, 2026. The...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Los Angeles Dodgers L

Training data through 2025-09 shows Dodgers as consistent contenders with superior pitching depth against most opponents. Orioles are compet...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Los Angeles Dodgers L

Based on my training data up to my last update (pre-2026), the Los Angeles Dodgers consistently exhibit superior team strength, especially w...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Los Angeles Dodgers L

Based on general baseball knowledge, the Los Angeles Dodgers are typically a strong team with a competitive roster, often performing well at...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 82% Los Angeles Dodgers L

Dodgers have a strong home record and superior roster even without key players. Orioles are rebuilding and struggle on the road. Based on tr...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

MLB games in late June typically see elevated offensive output as weather warms and hitters find rhythm mid-season. Both the Dodgers and Ori...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% over W

The Los Angeles Dodgers lead MLB with an OPS of .789, indicating a potent offense. The Baltimore Orioles have a 3-4 record since June 1, 202...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Training data through 2025-09 indicates Dodgers games trend slightly over the total due to offensive firepower. Orioles offense adds varianc...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5 W

Drawing from my training data (pre-2026), both the Dodgers and Orioles possess strong offensive lineups capable of scoring multiple runs. Wh...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Baseball games can be unpredictable, but with two potentially competitive offenses and a moderate number of runs expected in a typical MLB g...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Under 8.5

Pitching matchups likely favor both teams' starters; Dodgers bullpen is solid. Recent head-to-head at Dodger Stadium has seen moderate scori...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Los Angeles Dodgers 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers' lineup depth typically provides early-inning scoring advantage, particularly if facing a non-elite Baltimore starter. First-fiv...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a strong home record of 24-12 and are leading the NL West division with a 41-23 record as of June 16, 2026. The...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 60% Los Angeles Dodgers

Training data through 2025-09 highlights Dodgers starters often establishing leads in the opening innings. Orioles lineups have historically...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 45% Los Angeles Dodgers

Based on general team profiles from my training data (pre-2026), the Los Angeles Dodgers consistently feature top-tier starting pitching. Th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 57% Los Angeles Dodgers

The prediction favors the Dodgers to be leading after five innings, aligning with the expectation that they are the stronger team overall. T...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers have strong early-game offense and solid starting pitching. Orioles' bullpen is reliable, but early innings favor home team. Trainin...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Los Angeles Dodgers

82
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Los Angeles Dodgers

75
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Los Angeles Dodgers

65
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Los Angeles Dodgers

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Los Angeles Dodgers

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Los Angeles Dodgers

58

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1032–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 64483a42281215c4…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 21 · 20:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5454,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-21T20:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 20:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "home": "Los Angeles Dodgers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-18T05:52:27+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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