Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles

Kickoff · Sat, Jun 20 · 02:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 16 · 06:31 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    d2795ce81454cca0…

Sport: Sat, Jun 20 · 02:10 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4362,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-20T02:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 20 Jun 2026 02:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "home": "Los Angeles Dodgers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T06:29:24+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -30.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -27.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 201-251 -196.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 232-276 -221.0u	58% Los Angeles Dodgers	55% Over 8.5	56% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5	57% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 58% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers are a historically stronger franchise with superior payroll and depth, though both teams compete in different leagues (NL West v... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 MLB games in mid-June typically average 8–9 runs per game across both teams. Without access to current pitcher matchups, bullpen health, or... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 56% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 The Dodgers' historical advantage, home-field benefit, and organizational depth support a modest spread favorite position. A -1.5 line is re... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 57% Los Angeles Dodgers Early-inning matchups often reflect starting pitcher quality and early offensive rhythm. The Dodgers' investment in pitching and consistent... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 51-65 -9.6u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 52-117 -86.0u	65% Los Angeles Dodgers	60% over	55% Los Angeles Dodgers	60% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 65% Los Angeles Dodgers The Los Angeles Dodgers have been performing strongly in recent games, with a solid home record. The Baltimore Orioles have shown inconsiste... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have potent offenses, and recent games have seen high-scoring outcomes. The combination of strong batting and favorable hitting c... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers' home advantage and recent form make them likely to cover the -1 spread. However, the Orioles' potential for an upset keeps the... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 60% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers have a strong starting lineup and have been dominant in the first five innings of recent games, suggesting an early lead in this... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 145-303 -211.3u	62% Los Angeles Dodgers	53% over	55% home_-1.5	58% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 62% Los Angeles Dodgers Dodgers historically field stronger rosters than the Orioles through 2025. Home field advantage and pitching depth favor Los Angeles in this... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over Both offenses rank above average in power hitting per historical trends. June night games at Dodger Stadium often play neutral to hitter-fri... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% home_-1.5 Los Angeles bullpen depth supports covering the run line at home. Orioles struggle on the road against elite pitching staffs historically. T... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 58% Los Angeles Dodgers Dodgers typically deploy top starters early and control the first five innings. Baltimore lineup has shown slower starts on the road in past... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 14-46 -31.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 176-261 -223.1u	58% Los Angeles Dodgers	52% Over 8.5	56% Baltimore Orioles +1.5	48% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 58% Los Angeles Dodgers Based on historical performance and general team strength within my training data, the Los Angeles Dodgers are a consistently strong contend... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 MLB scoring trends, even without specific pitching matchups for June 2026, often see games exceed 8-9 runs, especially with two historically... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 56% Baltimore Orioles +1.5 While the Dodgers are favored in the moneyline, covering a -1.5 run spread can be challenging even for strong teams, especially against anot... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 48% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers historically field strong starting rotations and typically perform well in the early innings, especially at home. Without specif... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 84-212 -157.8u	60% Los Angeles Dodgers	55% over	52% Baltimore Orioles	53% over
Match winner ? 60% Los Angeles Dodgers The Los Angeles Dodgers are historically a strong team with a winning culture, and while specific lineups and pitcher matchups aren't availa... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Baseball games, particularly involving strong offenses like the Dodgers are known for, tend to have a moderate number of runs scored. Withou... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Baltimore Orioles While the Dodgers are favored to win, betting against the spread often favors the underdog to keep the game closer. Without specific details... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% over The first five innings often reflect the initial momentum and pitching dominance. Given the general offensive capabilities of the Dodgers an... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 201-294 -242.4u	65% Los Angeles Dodgers	55% Over 8.5	50% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5	60% Los Angeles Dodgers
Match winner ? 65% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers have a strong home record and superior lineup depth, while the Orioles are solid but less experienced. Dodgers' starting pitchin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 Both offenses are potent, and the Dodgers' ballpark favors hitting. Starting pitchers are solid but not dominant, and bullpens have been inc... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 The Dodgers are favored to win, but covering a 1.5-run spread is less certain due to the Orioles' competitiveness. Expect a close game where... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 60% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers' strong starting pitchers typically give them an early lead at home. The Orioles have a solid offense but may struggle early aga... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Los Angeles Dodgers 6/6	over 3/6	Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 2/6	Los Angeles Dodgers 5/6

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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