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MLB Angel Stadium
Upcoming · in 90h 39m
Los Angeles Angels logo

Los Angeles AngelsvsTexas Rangers

Texas Rangers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First 5 innings

Consensus
Texas Rangers 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Over

The first five innings isolate early bullpen and starter performance. Both teams average 4.8 and 4.4 runs over their last 5 full games, sugg...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Texas Rangers

First-five innings favors the Rangers based on team run prevention and starting-staff depth trends; even without a locked-in probable starte...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Los Angeles Angels

The Angels' starting pitcher has been effective in the early innings, and their offense tends to perform well at home. This suggests they ar...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Los Angeles Angels

Early game edges often go to home side in MLB per historical splits. Limited starter info available but equal rest suggests neutral start. T...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 45% Texas Rangers

As this game is set for a future date, I must rely on my training data and the limited brief details. Without specific starting pitcher info...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Texas Rangers

Starting pitching is crucial in the first five innings, but I lack specific information on the probable starters. Based on team form, the Ra...

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Match winner

Consensus
Texas Rangers 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have won 1 of 5 recent matches but show recent momentum in head-to-head play, having crushed Texas 13–1 on 2026-07-09. Texas has...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% Texas Rangers

Texas is the stronger team in August 2026 based on standings and run differential (Rangers ahead of the Angels in the AL West and fewer runs...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels have a strong home advantage, with a recent head-to-head win against the Texas Rangers. Additionally, the Angels have...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Los Angeles Angels

Angels have home advantage at Angel Stadium and the provided H2H shows a blowout win for them in July 2026. Rangers recent form is mixed whi...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Texas Rangers

Due to the future date of this event (2026-08-11), specific real-time data like starting pitchers, lineups, and weather is unavailable. This...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have a recent edge in head-to-head matchups, winning one of the two recent encounters convincingly. While both teams have...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Texas Rangers

Training data through 2025-09 suggests the Rangers have a slightly stronger overall roster. The Angels have struggled recently, losing four...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Over

Both teams have scored 24 and 22 runs respectively over their last 5 matches, averaging ~4.8 runs per team per game. Angel Stadium is a hitt...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% over

Combined team recent form and season run totals point to a higher-run game: Angels have been poor at preventing runs this year and the forec...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown a tendency to score multiple runs in recent games. The Angels' home advantage and the Rangers' need to improve their o...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams have conceded heavily in last 5 games with 29 runs allowed each. Warm August conditions at Angel Stadium typically allow average...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Over

With no live data for this future game, the prediction is based on the provided brief's team form and head-to-head results. Both teams have...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Over

Both teams have allowed a significant number of runs in their last five games, averaging nearly 6 runs conceded per game. Despite recent off...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 9.5

Both teams have shown decent offensive output in recent games, averaging around 4.5 runs per game combined. The Angels have scored 24 runs i...

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Spread

Consensus
Texas Rangers -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Los Angeles Angels

The Angels are slight favorites at home, reinforced by their dominant 13–1 win over Texas on 2026-07-09. However, both teams' recent form is...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 44% Texas Rangers -1.5

I favor Texas to win but covering a -1.5 runline (win by 2+) is less likely than the moneyline because single-run MLB variance and possible...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Los Angeles Angels

The Angels' home advantage and recent performance suggest they are likely to win by at least one run. The Rangers' recent form indicates the...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Los Angeles Angels

Home team covers the run line more often in this matchup per recent H2H and venue. Angels bullpen usage unknown but rest days equal. Trainin...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Texas Rangers -1.5

Given the lack of current game-specific data for this future event, the pick aligns with the slight H2H lean towards the Rangers, supported...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Texas Rangers

While the recent head-to-head record is split, the Rangers' ability to score runs and their slightly better recent form (despite both being...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Texas Rangers -1.5

The Rangers are favored to win, and their offense has been more consistent. However, the Angels have the potential to keep it close, especia...

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First five innings 4.5

Consensus
Over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Over

Both teams have been struggling to consistently start games strong, and their recent concession rates are high. The early innings often refl...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Texas Rangers

65
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Los Angeles Angels

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Los Angeles Angels

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Los Angeles Angels

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Texas Rangers

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Texas Rangers

52
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Texas Rangers

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 575ad68a91d81b1b…
Kickoff
Tue, Aug 11 · 01:38 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 22187,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Angel Stadium",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-11T01:38:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 11 Aug 2026 01:38:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Texas Rangers",
        "home": "Los Angeles Angels"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 29
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WLLLL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 24,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 29
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 33,
            "home": 33
        },
        "head_to_head": {
            "recent": [
                "2026-07-09: Texas Rangers 1–13 Los Angeles Angels",
                "2026-07-08: Texas Rangers 8–3 Los Angeles Angels"
            ],
            "matches": 2
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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