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MLB Major League Baseball · Angel Stadium
Upcoming · in 89h 45m
Los Angeles Angels logo

Los Angeles AngelsvsSt. Louis Cardinals

SL
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
St. Louis Cardinals 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis arrives with 38 rest days vs Angels' 12, a significant fatigue edge for the away team. The Angels are in severe form collapse (1W-...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals are the more complete team and are sending Kyle Leahy (solid recent stretch with multiple 5+ IP outings) to face a rookie Angel st...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals have a better overall record (50-45) compared to the Los Angeles Angels (38-59). The Angels have struggled recently,...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% St. Louis Cardinals

Training data through 2025-09 shows Cardinals with stronger recent form and pitching depth. Angel Stadium tends to suppress scoring but favo...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% St. Louis Cardinals

Based on the limited information for this future event and general baseball knowledge from training data, the St. Louis Cardinals appear to...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have slightly better recent form and a more consistent pitching rotation despite some injuries. The Angels' recent struggles a...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have better recent form (LLW vs WLLLL) and more rest. However, the Angels play at home and the baseball market is volatile. Ma...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 8.5

Angels' fatigue and poor recent form (averaging 4.8 runs over last 5 games) suggest reduced offensive output. Cardinals' slightly better run...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% under

Both probable starters suppress runs effectively in 2026 (Ureña's ~2.88 ERA and Leahy's recent five-inning, low-run outings), and Angel Stad...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances, with the Angels averaging 4.4 runs per game and the Cardinals averaging 4.5 runs...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Training data through 2025-09 indicates average run totals around 9.0 at Angel Stadium in July. Both lineups project average offense; bullpe...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

Assuming a typical MLB total line of 8.5 runs for this future event, the combined recent scoring trends suggest an 'Over' outcome. The Cardi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

While both teams have injuries impacting their offenses, the starting pitchers have shown inconsistency. The weather forecast is favorable f...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both teams have scored and conceded plenty recently (Cardinals 21 scored/16 conceded in 3, Angels 24 scored/29 conceded in 5). Angel Stadium...

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Spread

Consensus
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% St. Louis Cardinals -1.5

Rest disparity (38 vs 12 days) and form gap (Angels 1-4 vs Cardinals 1-2) support a Cardinals win by 1–2 runs. Angels' offensive drought and...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 38% St. Louis Cardinals -1.5

Cardinals winning by 2+ is plausible given Leahy's reliable recent starts and a stronger lineup, but the runline is harder to hit in a game...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% St. Louis Cardinals

Considering the Cardinals' superior overall record and the Angels' recent struggles, the Cardinals are likely to cover a -1 spread. The Ange...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% St. Louis Cardinals -1.5

Training data through 2025-09 shows Cardinals road teams cover the run line slightly more than 50 percent against weaker home pitching staff...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% St. Louis Cardinals +1.5

For this future event, and assuming a standard MLB spread of -1.5 runs, I lean towards the St. Louis Cardinals to cover +1.5. The Angels' po...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals' slightly better form and more stable lineup, despite injuries, give them a marginal edge to cover a small spread. The Angels'...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% St. Louis Cardinals -1.5

While the Cardinals have a slight edge to win outright, covering a -1.5 run line is much harder. Angels at home with plus money offer better...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
St. Louis Cardinals 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring typically reflects fresh bullpen strength and starter sharpness; fatigue effects accumulate late. Angels' recent offens...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% St. Louis Cardinals

For the first five innings, Leahy's recent pattern of 5-inning, low-run performances gives the Cardinals a slight edge to be leading or tied...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals' starting pitcher, K. Leahy, has a solid ERA of 3.73, suggesting a strong start. The Angels' starter, R. Johnson, has a higher...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% St. Louis Cardinals

Training data through 2025-09 indicates starting-pitcher advantage usually decides the first five. Cardinals rotation depth gives a modest e...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% St. Louis Cardinals

Without specific starting pitcher information for this future game, the prediction for the first five innings relies on the available team f...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% St. Louis Cardinals

The first five innings depend heavily on the starting pitchers. Without confirmed starters, the Cardinals' recent form gives a slight edge....

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First five innings over 3.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% over

Early game scoring potential is influenced by the starting pitchers' ability to settle in. Given the inconsistency of both starters and favo...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

St. Louis Cardinals

65
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

St. Louis Cardinals

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

St. Louis Cardinals

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

St. Louis Cardinals

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

St. Louis Cardinals

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

St. Louis Cardinals

52
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

St. Louis Cardinals

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1043–787 · 57%
-590.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 678–576 · 54%
-356.7u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1116–1095 · 50%
-909.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 735–738 · 50%
-496.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1017–1031 · 50%
-722.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 864–915 · 49%
-713.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1004–1080 · 48%
-917.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: e2150c8aa8e510fb…
Kickoff
Tue, Jul 21 · 02:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 13757,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Angel Stadium",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-21T02:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 21 Jul 2026 02:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "St. Louis Cardinals",
        "home": "Los Angeles Angels"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 3,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WLLLL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 24,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 29
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 38,
            "home": 12
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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