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MLB Angel Stadium
Upcoming · in 89h 07m
Los Angeles Angels logo

Los Angeles AngelsvsCleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Cleveland Guardians

Both teams are in poor form (1-4 in last 5), but Cleveland's recent win and slightly better run differential (-5 vs Angels -5 but with one f...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Cleveland Guardians

Probable starters favor Cleveland: LHP Parker Messick has been excellent this season and has produced multiple multi-inning, low-run outings...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians have shown a slight edge in recent form, with a 1W-0D-4L record in their last five matches, compared to the Los Ange...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Los Angeles Angels

Both teams enter with poor recent form but the Angels benefit from home field at Angel Stadium. Training data through 2024 shows Cleveland s...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Los Angeles Angels

Both teams are in poor recent form (1W-4L). The Angels have shown a slightly better offensive output over their last five games and will ben...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians are in a better overall position in the standings and have a slightly better recent pitching matchup. Despite both t...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Los Angeles Angels

Despite both teams being in poor form, the Angels have a slight edge at home and have scored more runs overall. The game is a coin flip, but...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

Both teams' last-5 offensive output is weak: Angels scored 24 runs in 5 games (4.8/game), Guardians 17 (3.4/game). Combined scoring average...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 64% under

Both probable starters (Messick and Urena) have legitimate sub-3.00 ERAs and recent form showing multi-inning efficiency, which reduces the...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under

Both teams have struggled offensively in recent games, with the Guardians scoring 17 runs and the Angels scoring 24 runs in their last five...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Angel Stadium plays neutral to slightly hitter-friendly in summer. Both clubs have allowed high run totals in recent games per the provided...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

The Los Angeles Angels' recent games have been high-scoring, with both their offense scoring 24 runs and their pitching conceding 29 runs ov...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent scoring and conceding patterns recently. The Angels' recent games have been higher scoring, while the Gua...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% over

Angel Stadium has neutral park factors, but both teams have been scoring and conceding runs at a high rate recently. The absence of specific...

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Spread

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

The Guardians' modest h2h edge (+18% confidence) carries into the spread market, but the spread is tight and reflects uncertainty. Angels' h...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

Given Messick's ability to go deep and limit runs and Cleveland's superior overall roster/record, there's a better-than-even chance the Guar...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

Given the close nature of the matchup, the Guardians are expected to cover the -1 spread, indicating a narrow victory margin.

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Los Angeles Angels

Home underdogs in MLB often cover small spreads when the visitor is also in poor form. Rest days are equal at 47 so no fatigue edge. Trainin...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 35% Los Angeles Angels -1.5

While the Los Angeles Angels are slightly favored to win outright, covering a -1.5 run line against any MLB team is challenging. Many baseba...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians are in a better league position and have a slightly better matchup on the mound. Although both teams are struggling, the Guard...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 25% Los Angeles Angels -1.5

This is an inaccurate representation of spread markets, which typically have two outcomes. Assuming the spread is -1.5 for the home team, th...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring typically lags total scoring; both teams' weak offensive form in the last 5 games (combined ~8.2 runs/game across 9 inn...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Cleveland Guardians

Messick's recent starts indicate he frequently limits damage through five innings and often completes 5–7 innings; that makes Cleveland more...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians' recent form suggests they may have a slight edge in the early innings, leading to a potential lead after the first five innin...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Los Angeles Angels

First-five results track closely to full-game home advantage in neutral parks. Limited starter data for 2026 forces reliance on overall team...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% Los Angeles Angels

Assuming a competitive pitching matchup and without specific starter information for this future date, the first five innings are expected t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have a slightly better starting pitcher in their recent outings, which should give them an advantage in the early part of the...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Cleveland Guardians

Early innings are unpredictable, but the Guardians may start stronger with their typical aggressive approach. However, both teams have poor...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Cleveland Guardians

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Cleveland Guardians

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Cleveland Guardians

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Cleveland Guardians

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Los Angeles Angels

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Los Angeles Angels

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Los Angeles Angels

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1151–929 · 55%
-732.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 694–590 · 54%
-369.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1228–1245 · 50%
-1,059.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 851–876 · 49%
-634.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1225–1281 · 49%
-972.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 977–1065 · 48%
-863.8u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 8cac6b739c7980be…
Kickoff
Tue, Aug 25 · 01:38 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 28396,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Angel Stadium",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-25T01:38:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:38:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "home": "Los Angeles Angels"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 17,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WLLLL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 24,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 29
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 47,
            "home": 47
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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