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MLB
Upcoming · in 88h 56m
Los Angeles Angels logo

Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles logo

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 23 · 01:38 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 19 · 05:51 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 978f82139454e028…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 23 · 01:38 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5684,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-23T01:38:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 23 Jun 2026 01:38:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "home": "Los Angeles Angels"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-19T05:50:54+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Baltimore Orioles 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Baltimore Orioles

As of my training data (through September 2025), the Orioles have been a stronger franchise with better recent playoff performance and more...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are the pick based on schedule context and overall roster depth shown in pregame previews — MLB and CBS list the series at Angel...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels have a strong home record, and the Baltimore Orioles have struggled on the road this season. Additionally, the Angels...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Baltimore Orioles

Orioles have shown stronger overall roster construction and pitching depth in recent seasons through 2025. Angels continue to struggle with...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles, based on general team development and overall roster depth from my training data (through late 2025), are projected t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Baltimore Orioles

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Baltimore Orioles generally hold a slight edge over the Los Angeles Angels. The Orioles have sho...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Baltimore Orioles

Orioles have a strong offense and slightly better recent form based on training data through 2025. Angels have home advantage but less consi...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

MLB games in June typically see moderate scoring with favorable weather conditions. Both Angels and Orioles have shown reasonable offensive...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% under

With starting rotations and bullpen usage emphasized in the MLB preview and CBS pregame notes, this matchup looks more likely to be a lower-...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have potent offenses and have been involved in high-scoring games recently. The over has hit in several of their recent matchups.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Both teams tend to play in higher-scoring games due to offensive tendencies. June weather in Anaheim typically favors hitters. Training data...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

While specific starting pitcher information for June 23, 2026, is unavailable (relying on training data through late 2025), MLB games typica...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Considering the offensive capabilities of both teams as reflected in my training data up to 2025-09, a moderate to high-scoring game is anti...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 7.5

Both teams have potent lineups; Angels' pitching has been vulnerable. Historical matchups often produce high scores. Training data suggests...

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Spread

Consensus
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Baltimore Orioles -1.5

The Orioles' slight competitive edge translates to a modest run-line advantage. A 1.5-run spread is a tighter proposition, but Baltimore's h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Baltimore -1.5

Given the moneyline lean to Baltimore and the evidence of better pitching depth and more consistent run prevention in recent pregame notes,...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have been winning by multiple runs at home, and the Orioles have had difficulty covering the spread on the road.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore's pitching staff projects to limit Los Angeles to fewer runs on the road. Angels bullpen issues persist into 2026 projections. Tra...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Baltimore Orioles -1.5

Building on the H2H prediction, the Baltimore Orioles are expected to win this game outright due to their superior overall team strength bas...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles are projected to perform slightly better than the Los Angeles Angels, even with a neutral spread. Historical data sugg...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Baltimore Orioles -1.5

Orioles have the better run differential in training data, but winning by 2+ is competitive. Spreads are uncertain without current lineups;...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Baltimore Orioles 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

First five innings typically see lower scoring as pitchers are fresher and batters haven't settled. Neither the Angels nor Orioles are known...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have a strong starting pitcher scheduled for the first five innings, and the Orioles have been slow starters in recent games.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Baltimore Orioles

Starting pitching matchup leans slightly toward Baltimore based on prior season data. Early game script often favors the road team with bett...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Baltimore Orioles F5

The First Five Innings market heavily relies on the starting pitchers, whose specific identities are unknown for this 2026 game (relying on...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles have historically shown a stronger performance in the early innings of games against the Los Angeles Angels, according...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Baltimore Orioles

Orioles' starting pitching is slightly better in training data; early-game performance gives them a narrow advantage. Angels' home field cou...

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First five innings 3.5

Consensus
under 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under

First-five innings lean under because starting pitchers and early-inning matchups (no confirmed high-powered lineups posted on MLB preview)...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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