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MLB
Final 3–9
Los Angeles Angels logo

Los Angeles AngelsvsAthletics

Athletics logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final3–9 Locked 28picks · 16 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Los Angeles Angels 3–9 Athletics

5 of 7 AIs leaned Los Angeles Angels — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Los Angeles Angels 5/7
Correct calls
1/7
Final
3–9

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Los Angeles Angels 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Angels L

Based on training knowledge through early 2025, the Angels have historically been the stronger franchise with better recent winning records...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Los Angeles Angels L

Reid Detmers (LAA) is a substantially steadier long outing option than Jack Perkins (OAK), and MLB/CBS probable-starter listings show Detmer...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Los Angeles Angels L

The Los Angeles Angels have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Athletics have struggled on the road. The...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Los Angeles Angels L

Both clubs are AL West rebuilders with similar overall talent levels in my training data through 2025. Home field for the Angels provides a...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Los Angeles Angels L

Based on general historical team profiles and performance trends from my training data, the Los Angeles Angels typically possess a higher ca...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Athletics W

As of my last knowledge update, the Athletics generally held a competitive edge over the Los Angeles Angels in head-to-head matchups. While...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Los Angeles Angels L

Both teams are struggling, but the Angels have home field advantage and slightly better overall roster quality. The Athletics are in a rebui...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over W

MLB games in late June typically feature warmer weather conducive to higher scoring. Angels and Athletics are mid-table offenses historicall...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% over W

Both clubs have produced middling-to-high run environments this season and the Athletics' probable starter (Perkins) has allowed elevated ru...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have shown inconsistent pitching performances, leading to higher-scoring games. The Angels' offense is potent, and the Athletics'...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Recent form for both clubs showed elevated run totals in 2025; bullpens remain unreliable. Warm-weather June night game tends to favor hitte...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5 L

With no specific pitching matchups or recent offensive statistics for 2026, I am relying on typical MLB scoring patterns and the historical...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Baseball games, particularly between teams with comparable historical performance, tend to have a moderate distribution of scores. I project...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Over 2.5 W

MLB games average over 4 runs per game, and both teams have average to below-average pitching. The Angels' bullpen has been unreliable, and...

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Spread

Consensus
Los Angeles Angels 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Angels -1.5

Angels as home favorites with a -1.5 spread aligns with their historical franchise superiority. Without live injury reports, recent form, or...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 48% Los Angeles Angels L

Angels to cover a -1.5 (win by 2+ runs) is plausible given a stronger projected starter (Detmers) vs. Perkins and home offense advantage, bu...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Los Angeles Angels L

The Angels' home advantage and superior lineup suggest they will win by at least one run. The Athletics' road performance has been poor, mak...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Los Angeles Angels

Athletics have historically struggled on the road against division foes. Angels bullpen depth gives them a late-inning edge if the game stay...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Athletics +1.5 W

While I predict the Angels to win outright, covering a -1.5 run spread in baseball is always challenging, even against a less favored oppone...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 57% Athletics

Given the slight historical advantage of the Athletics over the Angels, I predict they will cover the spread. This is based on the assumptio...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Athletics +1 W

This game is expected to be close, and the Athletics have been competitive in recent matchups. The spread of -1 for the Angels gives them a...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Los Angeles Angels 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Angels

Early-inning advantage often correlates with offensive quality and pitcher matchup strength. The Angels historically have stronger lineups a...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Los Angeles Angels

Over the first five innings Detmers should be expected to work deep enough to keep the A's from piling runs early, while Perkins' higher run...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Los Angeles Angels

The Angels' starting pitcher has been effective in the first five innings, and their offense tends to start strong. The Athletics' starter h...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Los Angeles Angels

Starting pitching matchup projects close through five innings with neither staff dominant. Home offense benefits from familiarity with the p...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Los Angeles Angels

The first five innings often showcase starting pitching and early lineup performance, which tends to favor the team with better overall tale...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 59% Athletics

The Athletics have historically shown a slightly stronger performance in the early innings of games against the Angels. This prediction is b...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have a stronger starting rotation than the Athletics, who often rely on openers or weaker starters. In the first five innings, st...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Los Angeles Angels

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Angels

62
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Los Angeles Angels

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Los Angeles Angels

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Athletics

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Los Angeles Angels

53
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Los Angeles Angels

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: dc2139b758623f40…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 27 · 01:38 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7004,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-27T01:38:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 01:38:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Athletics",
        "home": "Los Angeles Angels"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-23T05:52:25+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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