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Boxing
Awaiting result · 1047h 50m ago
LG

Lasha GurulivsLiam Dillon

LD
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Kickoff Locked 27picks

AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Lasha Guruli 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Lasha Guruli

Lasha Guruli is a Georgian professional boxer with a strong track record in middleweight/super middleweight divisions, known for technical p...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 74% Lasha Guruli

Guruli arrives with a high-level amateur pedigree (2024 Olympic bronze) and an eye-catching pro debut/early pro win (RTD at Wembley, July 19...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Lasha Guruli

Lasha Guruli is an undefeated boxer with a record of 3-0, including a knockout victory in his second fight. Liam Dillon has a record of 16-5...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Lasha Guruli

Lasha Guruli is listed as the home fighter with no public form data available beyond training cutoff. Slight edge given to home in the absen...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Lasha Guruli

Predicting from training data through late 2024. Lasha Guruli is an Olympic bronze medalist known for his technical prowess and amateur boxi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Liam Dillon

Liam Dillon has a stronger professional record and more recent activity than Lasha Guruli. Dillon's experience against higher-caliber oppone...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Lasha Guruli

Guruli has a slight edge in recent experience and momentum, having fought tougher opposition. Dillon is solid but may lack the power to trou...

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Method of victory

Consensus
Decision 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Decision

In professional boxing, decisions are the most common outcome, especially at middleweight where both boxers tend to have solid defensive fun...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% Decision

Bookmakers strongly favour the fight going the distance (Oddschecker 'Yes' 2/7) and both fighters show relatively low pro-level KO percentag...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% KO/TKO

Guruli has demonstrated knockout power in his professional career, including a stoppage victory in his second fight. Dillon has been stopped...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% decision

Both fighters lack knockout power reputation in available records. Expect points win more likely than stoppage. Training data through 2025-0...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Decision/Technical Decision

Predicting from training data through late 2024. Liam Dillon is a tough and durable professional who often goes the distance. Guruli, while...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% decision

While both fighters have knockout power, Dillon's last three wins have been by decision, indicating he can go the distance and outpoint oppo...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Points / Decision

Both fighters tend to go the distance; Guruli has a low KO rate and Dillon is durable. A decision is the most likely outcome unless late fat...

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Goes the distance

Consensus
Yes 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Yes

The match going the distance (completing all scheduled rounds) is more likely than an early stoppage, given Guruli's technical, defensive pr...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 73% Yes

The sportsbooks price 'Yes' strongly (2/7 on Oddschecker) and both fighters display profiles that point to a measured contest rather than a...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% no

Given Guruli's knockout power and Dillon's history of stoppage losses, it is likely that the fight will not go the distance. Guruli's aggres...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Yes

Predicting from training data through late 2024. Given Liam Dillon's known durability and Lasha Guruli's technical, rather than overwhelming...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 70% yes

Given that Dillon has gone to decision in his recent wins and Guruli has shown resilience in some of his fights, it's likely this bout will...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Yes

Both fighters are known for going the distance; neither has a high KO percentage. The fight is scheduled for 10 rounds and likely to see the...

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Round group

Consensus
Distance 1/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Later (Rounds 7-12)

If the bout goes to a decision or reaches later rounds, Guruli's technical advantage and conditioning typically manifest more clearly in the...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 73% Distance

Round-group markets on Oddschecker show longer-priced early rounds and the distance outcome priced as the market favourite; combining that w...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% 1-3

Considering Guruli's knockout power and Dillon's defensive vulnerabilities, a stoppage in the early rounds is probable. Guruli's previous kn...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% 9-12

Decision outcome and distance lean point to later rounds. No early finish indicators present. Training data through 2025-09.

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Decision

Predicting from training data through late 2024. As a decision is the most probable outcome based on the fighters' known styles and resilien...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 45% group_4_5

Both fighters have shown the ability to finish fights, but also to go into the later rounds. Dillon's recent tendency for decisions and Guru...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Rounds 7-12

If a stoppage occurs, it is more likely in the second half when fatigue sets in. However, a decision is still probable. The 7-12 group cover...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Lasha Guruli

75
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Lasha Guruli

74
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Lasha Guruli

68
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Lasha Guruli

65
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Lasha Guruli

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Liam Dillon

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Lasha Guruli

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1032–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 832a10e33384e985…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 20 · 18:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Method of victory · Goes the distance · Round group
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | method_finish | goes_distance | round_group

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4982,
        "sport": "boxing",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Boxing",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-20T18:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 20 Jun 2026 18:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Liam Dillon",
        "home": "Lasha Guruli"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-20T05:46:21+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "method_finish",
        "goes_distance",
        "round_group"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

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