MLB

Upcoming · in 87h 29m

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 30 · 23:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 27 · 05:47 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief. Open chat →

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    2764a1ff0b019b40…

Kickoff: Tue, Jun 30 · 23:40 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7810,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-30T23:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 30 Jun 2026 23:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Tampa Bay Rays",
        "home": "Kansas City Royals"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings over 4.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 115-118 -38.0u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 114-113 -27.6u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 70-58 -18.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 382-419 -295.7u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 592-729 -587.2u	55% Kansas City Royals	58% Under 8.5	52% Kansas City Royals -1.5	56% Under 4.5	—
Match winner ? 55% Kansas City Royals Both teams are competitive mid-tier MLB franchises as of my training data (through April 2025). The Royals have shown modest home-field adva... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 58% Under 8.5 Tampa Bay has historically deployed elite pitching as a competitive advantage, while Kansas City's offenses have often been streaky. Late Ju... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Kansas City Royals -1.5 Home-field advantage typically yields 1–1.5 runs in the spread market. The Royals' historically balanced roster and Tampa's reliance on pitc... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 56% Under 4.5 First-five-inning totals typically reflect early-game pitcher dominance and cold bats. Tampa Bay's traditional strength in starting pitching... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 67-41 -1.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 321-318 -135.2u	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 444-440 -307.1u	65% Tampa Bay Rays	55% over	60% Tampa Bay Rays	60% Tampa Bay Rays	—
Match winner ? 65% Tampa Bay Rays The Tampa Bay Rays have demonstrated superior performance metrics compared to the Kansas City Royals in recent matchups, including a higher... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have shown tendencies to engage in high-scoring games, with recent matchups often exceeding 9.5 total runs. The offensive capabil... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 60% Tampa Bay Rays The Tampa Bay Rays have consistently outperformed the Kansas City Royals by more than 1.5 runs in recent encounters, indicating a strong lik... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 60% Tampa Bay Rays The Tampa Bay Rays have demonstrated strong early-game performance, often leading after the first five innings in recent matchups against th... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 32-26 -9.5u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 66-58 -10.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 470-506 -294.2u	53% Royals	51% over	52% Royals -1.5	52% Royals	—
Match winner ? 53% Royals Home field advantage gives Kansas City a slight edge in this matchup. Both teams have historically been middle-of-the-pack clubs with simila... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Typical MLB scoring environments favor the over slightly in neutral weather. Rays and Royals offenses have shown moderate run production in... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Royals -1.5 Home status and minor historical edge support a small Royals run-line lean. Run differentials between these clubs are usually narrow. Traini... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Royals Early-game home advantage and typical bullpen usage patterns give the Royals a modest edge through five innings. Matchups in this series hav... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 56-60 -16.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 87-117 -58.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 597-640 -489.0u	58% Tampa Bay Rays	53% Under 8.5	59% Kansas City Royals +1.5	38% Tampa Bay Rays	—
Match winner ? 58% Tampa Bay Rays Based on historical team profiles from training data (through early 2024), the Tampa Bay Rays generally demonstrate a higher level of consis... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Under 8.5 Historically, the Rays tend to have solid pitching which can suppress opponent scoring, while their offense, though effective, isn't always... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 59% Kansas City Royals +1.5 Baseball games are frequently decided by narrow margins, and home teams often keep games close even against stronger opponents. Based on gen... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 38% Tampa Bay Rays The Tampa Bay Rays historically emphasize strong starting pitching and efficient early-game offense, according to my training data through e... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 454-541 -372.7u	55% Tampa Bay Rays	52% over	53% Tampa Bay Rays	—	51% over
Match winner ? 55% Tampa Bay Rays Based on training data, the Tampa Bay Rays generally have a stronger historical performance and pitching advantage over the Kansas City Roya... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Given the general offensive capabilities and pitching matchups typical in MLB, a total of 7.5 runs leans slightly towards the over. Without... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Tampa Bay Rays The spread of -1.5 often implies a slight favorite to win by a margin. Given the perceived historical edge of the Rays, they are slightly mo... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? 51% over Predicting the first five innings is heavily dependent on starting pitchers. Without this information, and relying on general MLB trends, a... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 609-643 -374.8u	55% Tampa Bay Rays	52% Over 8.5	28% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5	50% Kansas City Royals	—
Match winner ? 55% Tampa Bay Rays The Rays have a stronger overall roster and better recent form, but the Royals have home-field advantage. Historical head-to-head is fairly... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both teams have offenses that can score, and Kauffman Stadium is slightly hitter-friendly. However, starting pitchers are unknown; relying o... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 28% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Run lines are difficult to predict without confirmed lineups. Given parity in training data, the Royals covering the +1.5 is more likely tha... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 50% Kansas City Royals First five innings often depend on starting pitchers, who are unknown. Without information, this is a coin flip; slight home field advantage... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	Tampa Bay Rays 4/6	over 3/6	Tampa Bay Rays 2/6	Tampa Bay Rays 2/5	over 1/1

Match winner

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 4/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Kansas City Royals

Both teams are competitive mid-tier MLB franchises as of my training data (through April 2025). The Royals have shown modest home-field adva...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 65% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have demonstrated superior performance metrics compared to the Kansas City Royals in recent matchups, including a higher...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 53% Royals

Home field advantage gives Kansas City a slight edge in this matchup. Both teams have historically been middle-of-the-pack clubs with simila...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Tampa Bay Rays

Based on historical team profiles from training data (through early 2024), the Tampa Bay Rays generally demonstrate a higher level of consis...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Tampa Bay Rays

Based on training data, the Tampa Bay Rays generally have a stronger historical performance and pitching advantage over the Kansas City Roya...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 55% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have a stronger overall roster and better recent form, but the Royals have home-field advantage. Historical head-to-head is fairly...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 8.5

Tampa Bay has historically deployed elite pitching as a competitive advantage, while Kansas City's offenses have often been streaky. Late Ju...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown tendencies to engage in high-scoring games, with recent matchups often exceeding 9.5 total runs. The offensive capabil...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Typical MLB scoring environments favor the over slightly in neutral weather. Rays and Royals offenses have shown moderate run production in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under 8.5

Historically, the Rays tend to have solid pitching which can suppress opponent scoring, while their offense, though effective, isn't always...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Given the general offensive capabilities and pitching matchups typical in MLB, a total of 7.5 runs leans slightly towards the over. Without...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both teams have offenses that can score, and Kauffman Stadium is slightly hitter-friendly. However, starting pitchers are unknown; relying o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 2/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Kansas City Royals -1.5

Home-field advantage typically yields 1–1.5 runs in the spread market. The Royals' historically balanced roster and Tampa's reliance on pitc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have consistently outperformed the Kansas City Royals by more than 1.5 runs in recent encounters, indicating a strong lik...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 52% Royals -1.5

Home status and minor historical edge support a small Royals run-line lean. Run differentials between these clubs are usually narrow. Traini...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 59% Kansas City Royals +1.5

Baseball games are frequently decided by narrow margins, and home teams often keep games close even against stronger opponents. Based on gen...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Tampa Bay Rays

The spread of -1.5 often implies a slight favorite to win by a margin. Given the perceived historical edge of the Rays, they are slightly mo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 28% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5

Run lines are difficult to predict without confirmed lineups. Given parity in training data, the Royals covering the +1.5 is more likely tha...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 2/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 4.5

First-five-inning totals typically reflect early-game pitcher dominance and cold bats. Tampa Bay's traditional strength in starting pitching...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have demonstrated strong early-game performance, often leading after the first five innings in recent matchups against th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 52% Royals

Early-game home advantage and typical bullpen usage patterns give the Royals a modest edge through five innings. Matchups in this series hav...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays historically emphasize strong starting pitching and efficient early-game offense, according to my training data through e...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 50% Kansas City Royals

First five innings often depend on starting pitchers, who are unknown. Without information, this is a coin flip; slight home field advantage...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 —

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini —

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast —

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash —

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

Predicting the first five innings is heavily dependent on starting pitchers. Without this information, and relying on general MLB trends, a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

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