Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros

Final: 7 – 8

Picks locked at Jun 13 · 00:58 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded · 10 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    ebb505a04e4f1e2f…

Sport: Sat, Jun 13 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2689,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Houston Astros",
        "home": "Kansas City Royals"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T18:28:26+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

4 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Over / Under ?	Match winner ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	54% Over 8.5 W	58% Houston Astros W	52% Houston Astros -1.5 V	51% Under 5 Innings V
Over / Under ? 54% Over 8.5 MLB totals in regular season games typically average 8–9 runs with modern offensive environments. Without pitcher matchup details or weather... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 58% Houston Astros The Houston Astros are structurally stronger than the Royals based on historical franchise strength and roster depth. While I lack real-time... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Houston Astros -1.5 The Astros' structural strength suggests a modest edge sufficient to cover a 1.5-run spread at home or on a neutral field. However, with no... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% Under 5 Innings First five innings totals are typically set tight (4.5–5) and tend slightly under because early-game lineups face fresh pitchers with better... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	60% under L	55% Houston Astros L	55% Houston Astros V	55% Houston Astros V
Over / Under ? 60% under Both teams have struggled offensively this season, with the Royals ranking near the bottom in runs scored per game. The starting pitchers, M... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched Match winner ? 55% Houston Astros The Houston Astros have a slightly better overall record and have been more consistent in recent games compared to the Kansas City Royals. A... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched Spread ? 55% Houston Astros Given the Astros' slight edge in overall performance and recent form, they are more likely to cover the -1 spread. The Royals' home losing s... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched First 5 innings ? 55% Houston Astros The Astros' recent form and overall performance suggest they are more likely to lead after the first five innings. The Royals' struggles at... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	52% over V	55% Houston Astros L	53% Houston Astros V	51% Houston Astros V
Over / Under ? 52% over Both teams typically play in moderate run environments at Kauffman Stadium. Houston's lineup produces consistent offense while Royals bullpe... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Houston Astros Astros have been the stronger franchise historically with better pitching depth. Royals remain in a rebuild phase with inconsistent offense.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Houston Astros Astros are the better overall team and road favorites in most projections from past seasons. Royals struggle to cover run lines against qual... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% Houston Astros Houston's starting pitching has been more reliable early in games per historical patterns. Royals early offense remains streaky. Training da... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	55% Over 8.5 W	65% Houston Astros W	58% Houston Astros -1.5 V	60% Houston Astros F5 V
Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 The Houston Astros possess a potent offense capable of scoring multiple runs, and MLB games frequently exceed 8.5 runs. While Astros pitchin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 65% Houston Astros Based on training data through my last update, the Houston Astros have consistently been a more dominant team with stronger overall talent.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 58% Houston Astros -1.5 Following the H2H prediction, the Houston Astros are expected to win, and their historical performance against less dominant teams often res... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 60% Houston Astros F5 The Houston Astros typically have a stronger starting rotation and a more consistent offense in the early stages of a game. Their overall te... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	55% over V	65% Houston Astros L	60% Houston Astros V	62% Houston Astros V
Over / Under ? 55% over MLB games, on average, tend to have a moderate number of runs scored. Without specific pitching matchups or offensive trends, leaning toward... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 65% Houston Astros Based on general MLB team performance trends and historical strengths, the Houston Astros have typically been a stronger franchise than the... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 60% Houston Astros Given the assumed slight advantage for the Houston Astros in head-to-head matchups, they are more likely to cover a standard spread. This pr... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 62% Houston Astros If the Houston Astros have a stronger overall team, this advantage often translates to the early stages of the game. They are more likely to... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	52% Over 8.5 V	55% Houston Astros W	40% Houston Astros -1.5 V	53% Houston Astros V
Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both teams have offenses capable of scoring, and Kauffman Stadium plays fairly neutral. Pitching matchups are not dominant, so total runs ar... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Houston Astros The Astros have historically outperformed the Royals, with stronger pitching and a deeper lineup. However, the Royals have shown improvement... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 40% Houston Astros -1.5 Astros are favored but covering a 1.5-run spread requires a multi-run win, which is less certain. The Royals can be competitive at home. Low... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Houston Astros Early innings favor the Astros due to superior starting pitching depth. However, the Royals have been competitive early in games recently. S... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Over 8.5 3/7	Houston Astros 6/7	Houston Astros -1.5 3/7	Houston Astros 4/7

Ask the AIs · Post-match analysis

Reverse-engineer the match

Ask any AI to explain what happened or grade the consensus call.

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 0 sources

Used research tools but didn't cite specific sources in its JSON.

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