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MLB Kauffman Stadium
Upcoming · in 87h 56m
Kansas City Royals logo

Kansas City RoyalsvsDetroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Kansas City Royals

Kansas City shows superior recent form (3-2 in last 5 vs Detroit's 4-1) and plays at home in Kauffman Stadium, a pitcher-friendly park that...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Detroit Tigers

Detroit is the stronger club (RunsLeft shows 60-64 vs KC 51-74) and enters with better recent results and lineup balance; Detroit's top-end...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals have a strong home advantage at Kauffman Stadium, with a recent home record of 3 wins and 2 losses. The Detroit Tiger...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Kansas City Royals

Royals have scored heavily in recent form (39 runs in last 5) while Tigers allowed 16. Kauffman Stadium favors pitchers but home scoring edg...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Kansas City Royals

Based on training data up to 2025, the Kansas City Royals often perform well at home, backed by their recent high-scoring offensive form (7....

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have shown slightly better recent form compared to the Kansas City Royals, despite the Royals' home-field advantage. Rece...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Kansas City Royals

Based on training data through mid-2025. The Royals have shown strong offensive potential recently, scoring 39 runs in their last five games...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

Kauffman Stadium is notorious for suppressing scoring due to its expansive outfield and elevation that limits carry. Kansas City's defensive...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over

Both teams have shown elevated run production in recent samples (brief + RunsLeft: DET scored 25 in their last 5; KC 39 in their last 5) and...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown a tendency to score high in recent games, with the Royals averaging 7 runs per game in their last 5 matches and the Ti...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Both offenses active in last 5 matches with combined 107 runs. Warm August weather at Kauffman often boosts totals slightly. Training data t...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

The Kansas City Royals have shown a high-scoring trend in their last five games, averaging 7.8 runs scored and 5.4 runs conceded, pushing to...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

The Kansas City Royals' recent offensive surge, combined with their tendency to concede a significant number of runs, suggests a higher-scor...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 8.5

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games lately, with Detroit conceding 16 and Kansas City scoring 39 in their last five. The bal...

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Spread

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Kansas City -1.5

Kansas City's home-field advantage and pitcher-friendly stadium create a modest edge in run differential. Detroit's superior recent form (4-...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 44% Detroit Tigers -1.5

I expect Detroit to be the more likely winner but predicting a 2+ run margin is less certain because KC's bullpen depth and home offense can...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

The Royals have a strong home record and have been winning by an average of 2 runs in their recent home games. The Tigers have struggled on...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Kansas City Royals

Royals recent scoring surge and home venue give slight edge on run line. Tigers strong record but road splits historically weaker. Training...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Detroit Tigers +1.5

Despite leaning towards a Royals H2H win, the Detroit Tigers' recent defensive solidity (conceding only 3.2 runs/game) suggests they can kee...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Detroit Tigers

While the head-to-head record is not explicitly provided, the Tigers' slightly better recent form and offensive potential suggest they could...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Kansas City Royals -1.5

The Royals are riding good offensive form and have home advantage. However, the spread is tight; I give an even chance they win by 2 or more...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 4.5

Early-game totals are even more sensitive to ballpark effects and starting-pitcher quality. Kauffman Stadium's spacious design suppresses ea...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Detroit Tigers

First-five outcomes hinge on the starting pitchers; Detroit's rotation has a clearer top option (Tarik Skubal when active) and tends to gene...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Kansas City Royals

The Royals have been strong in the first five innings at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 3 runs. The Tigers have struggled early...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Kansas City Royals

Starting pitchers unknown but form suggests low-scoring first 5. Royals home advantage minimal early. Training data through 2024 shows even...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 45% Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals' potent recent offense (7.8 runs/game) at home provides a slight edge in the early innings. While the Tigers' pitchin...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

Given the offensive potential of both teams and the neutral ballpark, it's plausible that runs will be scored early. The Royals' tendency to...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Kansas City Royals

Starting pitchers are key, but with no specific data, I lean on the Royals' recent offensive output. They have scored early often, and home...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Detroit Tigers

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Kansas City Royals

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Kansas City Royals

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Detroit Tigers

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Kansas City Royals

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Kansas City Royals

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Kansas City Royals

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1058–806 · 57%
-609.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 694–590 · 54%
-369.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1132–1113 · 50%
-927.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 743–746 · 50%
-504.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1109–1141 · 49%
-832.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 878–934 · 48%
-732.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 7601c5cecd946871…
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 22 · 00:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 27481,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Kauffman Stadium",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-22T00:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 22 Aug 2026 00:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Detroit Tigers",
        "home": "Kansas City Royals"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWWL",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 25,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWWWL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 39,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 27
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 44,
            "home": 44
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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