Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB Major League Baseball · Kauffman Stadium
Upcoming · in 88h 10m
Kansas City Royals logo

Kansas City RoyalsvsChicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

Over the last 5 matches, Kansas City averaged 7.8 runs per game and Chicago averaged 4.2 runs per game, suggesting combined scoring around 1...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over

Over 8.5 is my lean because Kauffman's 2026 fence moves materially increase home run probability and the Aug 8 forecast shows warm, southerl...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown a tendency to score multiple runs in recent games, and the weather forecast indicates favorable conditions for hitting...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Both teams' recent scoring trends point to moderate run production. Weather and park factors at Kauffman are neutral. Training data through...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Over 9.5

The recent form data indicates both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring games. The Royals have averaged 7.8 runs scored and...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

While specific starting pitchers are unknown for this future date, both teams have shown an ability to score. The Royals have a higher recen...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both teams have shown decent offensive output recently. The probable starting pitchers are not elite, and the weather conditions in August t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Kansas City Royals -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Kansas City Royals -1

Kansas City's superior run differential (+12 vs -12) and home-field advantage support a modest favourite position. A 1-run spread reflects t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Kansas City Royals -1.5

I give a slight edge to Kansas City -1.5 (win by 2+) because the park and weather favor run production from the Royals while Chicago's rotat...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs' superior overall performance and recent form give them an edge to cover the -1 spread. Their offense and pitching have been more c...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Kansas City Royals

Home team form and ballpark suggest a slight edge on the run line for Kansas City. Cubs recent results have been inconsistent on the road. T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Kansas City Royals -1.5

The Kansas City Royals' strong recent offensive performance (averaging 7.8 runs per game) and home-field advantage make them a strong candid...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Chicago Cubs

Given the slight edge in recent form for the Chicago Cubs and the fact that their recent form, while scoring fewer runs, has been more about...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Kansas City Royals

The game is expected to be close, but home field advantage and recent offensive production give the Royals a slight edge. The run line at -1...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Kansas City Royals

Early-innings outcomes are typically driven by starter quality and early lineup momentum. KC's strong recent form (3W-2L, 7.8 RPG average) s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

I favor the Royals to lead after five innings because the park changes increase early-inning extra-base hit/home-run chances and the Cubs' s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs' starting pitcher has been more effective in the early innings, and their offense tends to start strong. Combined with the Royals'...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Kansas City Royals

Early innings often mirror overall trends with starters dictating pace. Limited platoon and bullpen data available for 2026. Training data t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 50% Kansas City Royals F5

The Royals' recent offensive surge, averaging 7.8 runs per game, is likely to translate to early scoring opportunities. While specific start...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Kansas City Royals

The Royals have a strong starting pitching matchup and typically start well at home. The Cubs have had slow starts in recent games. Training...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Kansas City Royals

Kansas City shows stronger recent form (3W-2L) with a +12 run differential over the last 5 matches, compared to Chicago's marginal 3W-2L rec...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Kansas City Royals

I favor the Royals at Kauffman because the park was altered in 2026 (walls moved in and lowered) which increases run-scoring and helps the h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have a stronger overall season record and have been performing better in recent games compared to the Kansas City Royals. T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Kansas City Royals

Royals have shown strong offensive output in recent form while Cubs have conceded heavily. Kauffman Stadium tends to suppress runs slightly...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Kansas City Royals

Based on the provided recent form, the Kansas City Royals appear to be in better offensive shape, scoring nearly double the runs per game co...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have shown slightly better recent form (3W-2L) compared to the Kansas City Royals (3W-2L), though the Royals have scored mo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Kansas City Royals

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Royals have a strong home record and the Cubs are inconsistent on the road. The Royals' offense...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings totals 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

The prediction for the first five innings is based on the assumption of relatively even starting pitchers, as specific information is unavai...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Kansas City Royals

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Kansas City Royals

57
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Chicago Cubs

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Kansas City Royals

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Chicago Cubs

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Kansas City Royals

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Kansas City Royals

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1032–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 6f87c940513a8a84…
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 8 · 00:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 21158,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Kauffman Stadium",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-08T00:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago Cubs",
        "home": "Kansas City Royals"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWLL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 33
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWWWL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 39,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 27
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 30,
            "home": 30
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →