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MLB Kauffman Stadium
Upcoming · in 88h 28m
Kansas City Royals logo

Kansas City RoyalsvsAthletics

Athletics logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Kansas City Royals

Kansas City has posted a 3-2 record over their last five matches with +12 run differential (39 scored, 27 conceded), while Oakland has colla...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Kansas City Royals

Home (Royals) moneyline is the better play based on the available signals: Oakland arrives in a severe slump (brief provided form LLLLL) and...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals have a stronger home record and have shown better recent form compared to the Athletics. The Royals' lineup is more c...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Kansas City Royals

Royals show stronger recent form with a 3-2 record versus Athletics' 0-5 skid. Home advantage at Kauffman Stadium plus platoon splits favor...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Kansas City Royals

Predictions are based on general baseball knowledge, historical team tendencies, and the provided recent form, as I do not have access to li...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Athletics

The Kansas City Royals have a significantly better recent record and their starting pitcher, Brady Singer, has a much lower ERA and more win...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Athletics

The Athletics have struggled recently, losing their last five, but they have had extended rest and are facing a Royals team that has been in...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

Oakland's offensive drought (18 runs over 5 games, 3.6 per game) is severe and unlikely to reverse in a road game. Kansas City has conceded...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% over

Given Oakland's recent defensive/pitching collapse (40 runs allowed in their last five) combined with warm mid‑August conditions at Kauffman...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under

Both teams have been struggling offensively, with the Athletics scoring only 18 runs in their last 5 games and the Royals averaging just und...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Athletics poor pitching has allowed 40 runs in last 5 games. Kauffman is neutral but summer temps boost offense. Training data through 2025-...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Over 8.5

Predictions are based on general baseball knowledge, historical team tendencies, and the provided recent form, as I do not have access to li...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

While the Athletics' recent scoring has been low, their opponents have been scoring heavily against them. The Royals have a strong offense,...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% under 8.5

Both teams have had extended rest, which can lead to rust in the batters' box, and starting pitchers are typically sharper after rest. The A...

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Spread

Consensus
Kansas City Royals -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Kansas City Royals -1.5

The Royals' +12 run differential over five games and home-field advantage should translate to a narrow victory, likely in the 6-3 or 7-4 ran...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Kansas City Royals -1.5

Royals covering a -1.5 runline is slightly favored because Oakland's recent run allowance and rotation/injury instability raise the chance o...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

The Royals' home advantage and the Athletics' recent struggles suggest a potential for the Royals to win by at least 2 runs. However, the At...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Kansas City Royals

Royals' better record and home field give them the edge on the run line. Athletics' recent collapse suggests they will struggle to cover. Tr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Kansas City Royals -1.5

Predictions are based on general baseball knowledge, historical team tendencies, and the provided recent form, as I do not have access to li...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Athletics

Given the pitching advantage for the Royals and their stronger recent form, they are favored to win by more than one run. The Athletics' str...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Athletics -1.5

At even odds, this is essentially a coin flip. The Athletics have been bad lately, but they have the better overall roster and likely starti...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 4/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 64% Kansas City Royals

Early-inning scoring is heavily influenced by starting-pitcher matchup and the first-inning lineup. Kansas City's recent offensive form (39...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Kansas City Royals

Royals lead after five innings is the strongest single-period edge because Oakland's recent starters and rotation uncertainty (plus Ginn IL)...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Kansas City Royals

The Royals have been starting games strong at home, and the Athletics have struggled early in games on the road. The Royals' starting pitche...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 60% Kansas City Royals

Starting pitcher advantage and home crowd give Royals edge through five innings. Athletics offense has been anemic lately. Training data thr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% Athletics

In the first five innings, starting pitchers dominate, and I expect the Athletics' starter to outduel the Royals' starter. The Athletics hav...

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First five innings 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% over

The Royals' starting pitcher, Brady Singer, has been solid, but the Athletics' offense, despite recent struggles, has the potential to score...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

First five innings h2h

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Kansas City Royals

Predictions are based on general baseball knowledge, historical team tendencies, and the provided recent form, as I do not have access to li...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Kansas City Royals

70
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Kansas City Royals

68
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Kansas City Royals

65
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Kansas City Royals

62
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Kansas City Royals

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Athletics

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Athletics

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1107–1136 · 49%
-827.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0ace5e31a0c07664…
Kickoff
Wed, Aug 19 · 23:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 27125,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Kauffman Stadium",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-19T23:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Athletics",
        "home": "Kansas City Royals"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLLL",
            "record": "0W-0D-5L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 40
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWWWL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 39,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 27
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 42,
            "home": 42
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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