Jean Do Santos vs Demba Seck
DSKickoff · Sat, Jun 13 · 18:30 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
0264d4caf4646d7c…
- Sport
- Sat, Jun 13 · 18:30 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · method_finish · goes_distance · round_group
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | method_finish | goes_distance | round_group
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 3337,
"sport": "mma",
"venue": null,
"league": "MMA",
"starts_at": "2026-06-13T18:25:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 18:25:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Demba Seck",
"home": "Jean Do Santos"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-12T19:07:44+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"away": 1.65,
"home": 2.35
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
"extra_markets": {
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.63,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.63,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.63,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.63,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.34,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.35,
"outcome": "Jean Do Santos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Demba Seck"
}
],
"totals": [
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.77,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.95,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.87,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.8,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
}
]
}
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"method_finish",
"goes_distance",
"round_group"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
AI predictions
4 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
book: Demba Seck 64% |
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
|
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic · 4-5 -1.2u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 5-5 -0.3u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 125-128 -87.1u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u |
58%
Jean Do Santos
~2.35
|
52%
Decision |
55%
Yes |
48%
Round 1-2 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Jean Do Santos Market consensus prices Jean Do Santos at 2.35 and Demba Seck at 1.65, implying roughly 43% and 61% implied probabilities respectively. The...
Odds: 2.35
Edge: +15.4%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
52%
Decision Without fighter-specific striking accuracy, submission rate, or grappling proficiency data, I apply baseline MMA finish rates. Roughly 45–50...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
55%
Yes MMA bouts reach the distance (all rounds completed) in approximately 50–55% of cases across professional organizations. The over-1.5-rounds...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
48%
Round 1-2 Round_group typically segments early (R1), mid (R2), late (R3+) finishes. Absent explicit odds for this market in the brief, I estimate base... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4 Heavy FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u |
59%
Demba Seck
~1.65
|
52%
Decision |
55%
Yes |
61%
3 Rounds |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
59%
Demba Seck Bookmaker consensus heavily favors Demba Seck at 1.63-1.65. No recent form or head-to-head data available in training knowledge for either f...
Odds: 1.65
Edge: -1.6%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
52%
Decision Limited data on both fighters suggests low finishing rates. Training knowledge shows no standout power or submission threats for either. Con...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
55%
Yes Totals market consensus around 1.5 rounds with slight lean to over implies competitive early action but potential for full fight. No known f...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
61%
3 Rounds Standard non-title MMA bouts default to 3 rounds. Limited evidence either fighter forces early stoppage. Training data through 2023-09 shows... |
|||||
Gemini 2.5 Pro FlagshipGoogle · 4-7 -1.8u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u |
58%
Demba Seck
~1.65
|
45%
Decision |
55%
No |
45%
Decision |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Demba Seck Based on the provided market consensus, Demba Seck is a clear favorite with odds of 1.65. Without specific fighter data from live research,...
Odds: 1.65
Edge: -2.6%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
45%
Decision As I do not have specific fighter records or styles available from live research, this prediction relies on general MMA finish rate statisti...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
55%
No Drawing from general MMA statistics in my training data through 2025-09, roughly 55% of fights typically end in a finish (KO/TKO or Submissi...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
45%
Decision Based on general MMA fight duration patterns from my training data through 2025-09, fights ending by decision are the most frequent single o... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u |
65%
Demba Seck
~1.65
|
55%
Decision |
60%
Yes |
40%
Round 3 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
65%
Demba Seck Demba Seck is the favorite in this matchup according to the bookmaker odds. While no specific fight data is available, the odds suggest Seck...
Odds: 1.65
Edge: +4.4%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
55%
Decision Given the market favors Demba Seck, but neither fighter's specific finishing styles are known from the provided data, predicting a decision...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
60%
Yes The odds for the fight to go the distance are competitive, with a slight lean towards 'Yes'. This suggests that while a finish is possible,...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
40%
Round 3 Without information on fighter stamina or typical fight pacing, it's difficult to pinpoint a specific round for a finish. However, consideri... |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u |
60%
Demba Seck
~1.65
|
50%
KO/TKO |
60%
No |
40%
Round 1 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Demba Seck Demba Seck is the favorite with odds around 1.65, indicating implied probability near 60%. Training data suggests Seck has superior striking...
Odds: 1.65
Edge: -0.6%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
50%
KO/TKO Both fighters have KO power, but Seck is known for striking finishes. Santos has been stopped in recent fights, increasing KO likelihood. Su...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
60%
No Given both fighters' finishing tendencies and Seck's power, the fight is likely to end before the final bell. Santos has been finished early...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
40%
Round 1 Seck's explosive style often leads to early finishes. Santos is vulnerable early, making a first-round stoppage the most likely single round... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Demba Seck 5/6 |
Decision 4/6 |
No 3/6 |
Round 1 2/6 |
|
|
Bookmaker line |
Demba Seck 64% |
— |
— |
— |
|
Ask the AIs · Post-match analysis
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Bookmaker odds
2 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Jean Do Santos | Draw | Demba Seck |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fanduel ↗ | 2.50 | — | 1.49 |
| BetOnline | 2.55 | — | 1.56 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 1.5 | 1.77 | 2.10 |
| Book | Jean Do Santos | Demba Seck |
|---|
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Jean Do Santos Demba Seck
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