Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins
Kickoff · Wed, Jul 1 · 00:10 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
368f23ac856d4169…
- Kickoff
- Wed, Jul 1 · 00:10 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 8043,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-07-01T00:10:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:10:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Minnesota Twins",
"home": "Houston Astros"
},
"version": "v1",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 7 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
58%
Houston Astros |
52%
Over 8.5 |
51%
Houston Astros -1.5 |
54%
Houston Astros |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Houston Astros This prediction is based on training knowledge through April 2025 and cannot account for roster changes, injuries, or form shifts between Ma...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over 8.5 Baseball mid-summer (July) typically sees elevated offensive output as hitters' timing improves and weather warms. Both the Astros and Twins...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Houston Astros -1.5 Home-field advantage in baseball is modest (roughly 54% win rate historically), so laying -1.5 runs is a slight lean rather than a strong co...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
54%
Houston Astros Early-inning dominance often correlates with starting pitcher quality and top-of-order hitter discipline. The Astros' historical strength at... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
57%
Houston Astros |
62%
over |
48%
Houston Astros -1.5 |
54%
Minnesota Twins |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
57%
Houston Astros Houston gets the home-field edge at Daikin Park (retractable roof) and fields a deeper lineup at the moment; CBS lists the scheduled starter...
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
62%
over Both rotations have shown run allowance (team ERAs and the two probable starters' 2026 numbers show Bradley has been hittable recently and I...
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Houston Astros -1.5 The Astros covering a -1.5 runline is plausible because of their stronger lineup at home and the ability to add runs late with a deeper benc...
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
54%
Minnesota Twins First-five-inning outcome leans to the Twins (away) because Taj Bradley has been better in the aggregate and Imai has shown bouts of early-i...
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
|
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
55%
Minnesota Twins |
60%
under |
50%
Minnesota Twins |
55%
Minnesota Twins |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Minnesota Twins The Minnesota Twins have shown strong performance in recent matchups against the Houston Astros, with a 3-2 record in their last five encoun...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
under Both teams have been averaging low-scoring games recently, with the Twins averaging 4.2 runs per game and the Astros 3.8 runs per game in th...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
50%
Minnesota Twins The Twins have been winning by an average margin of 2 runs in their recent games, indicating a potential for covering the -1.5 spread. Howev...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Minnesota Twins The Twins have been strong in the first five innings, often taking early leads. Their starting pitcher has a solid first-inning ERA, which c...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
|
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
58%
Houston Astros |
53%
over |
51%
home_ -1.5 |
55%
Houston Astros |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Houston Astros Astros maintain strong home record and pitching depth based on historical patterns. Twins show inconsistency on the road in recent seasons....
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over Both teams have lineups capable of scoring in summer conditions. Historical games between these clubs trend slightly over the total. Trainin...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
home_ -1.5 Houston's home advantage and bullpen edge support covering a modest run line. Twins road performance has been uneven. Training data through...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Houston Astros Astros typically strong early with starting pitching. Twins have struggled to score in first five on road recently. Training data through 20... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
60%
Houston Astros |
52%
Under 8.5 |
55%
Houston Astros -1.5 |
58%
Houston Astros |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Houston Astros Based on historical team performance and consistent strength, the Houston Astros typically have an edge, especially when playing at home. Th...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Under 8.5 While both teams can score, strong pitching often dictates lower-scoring games in competitive matchups. Assuming a typical MLB game with sol...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Houston Astros -1.5 If the Astros win as expected at home, they often do so by more than one run, demonstrating their offensive power and ability to close out g...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
58%
Houston Astros The Houston Astros typically boast strong starting pitching, which gives them an advantage in the early innings, especially at home. Their d... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
55%
Minnesota Twins |
60%
over |
52%
Minnesota Twins |
53%
Minnesota Twins |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Minnesota Twins Based on training data, the Minnesota Twins have historically performed well against the Houston Astros, particularly in recent seasons. Whi...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
over Both teams possess strong offenses capable of scoring, and their recent games suggest a tendency towards higher scoring affairs. The Astros'...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Minnesota Twins While the Astros are a formidable opponent at home, the Twins' ability to win close games and their strong pitching make them a capable bet...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
53%
Minnesota Twins The Minnesota Twins have shown a strong ability to start games effectively, with their top pitchers often performing well in the early innin... |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
62%
Houston Astros |
55%
Over 7.5 |
48%
Houston Astros -1.5 |
58%
Houston Astros |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Houston Astros Training data through 2025-09. Astros have strong home-field advantage at Minute Maid Park. Twins have a slightly weaker pitching rotation,...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Over 7.5 Both lineups feature power hitters; Astros and Twins rank above average in runs per game. Pitching matchups likely to be average, leading to...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Houston Astros -1.5 Astros are strong but winning by 2+ runs is not guaranteed against a competitive Twins team. Twins have decent bullpen depth, making cover l...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
58%
Houston Astros Astros starting pitchers have been reliable early in games; Twins tend to start slower. Astros first-five record at home is strong. Edge to... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Houston Astros 5/7 |
over 3/7 |
Houston Astros -1.5 4/7 |
Houston Astros 4/7 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusHouston Astros 5/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Houston Astros
This prediction is based on training knowledge through April 2025 and cannot account for roster changes, injuries, or form shifts between Ma...
GPT-5 Mini
57%
Houston Astros
Houston gets the home-field edge at Daikin Park (retractable roof) and fields a deeper lineup at the moment; CBS lists the scheduled starter...
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have shown strong performance in recent matchups against the Houston Astros, with a 3-2 record in their last five encoun...
Grok 4 Fast
58%
Houston Astros
Astros maintain strong home record and pitching depth based on historical patterns. Twins show inconsistency on the road in recent seasons....
Gemini 2.5 Flash
60%
Houston Astros
Based on historical team performance and consistent strength, the Houston Astros typically have an edge, especially when playing at home. Th...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
Minnesota Twins
Based on training data, the Minnesota Twins have historically performed well against the Houston Astros, particularly in recent seasons. Whi...
DeepSeek V3
62%
Houston Astros
Training data through 2025-09. Astros have strong home-field advantage at Minute Maid Park. Twins have a slightly weaker pitching rotation,...
Over / Under
Consensusover 3/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Over 8.5
Baseball mid-summer (July) typically sees elevated offensive output as hitters' timing improves and weather warms. Both the Astros and Twins...
GPT-5 Mini
62%
over
Both rotations have shown run allowance (team ERAs and the two probable starters' 2026 numbers show Bradley has been hittable recently and I...
GPT-4o Mini
60%
under
Both teams have been averaging low-scoring games recently, with the Twins averaging 4.2 runs per game and the Astros 3.8 runs per game in th...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
over
Both teams have lineups capable of scoring in summer conditions. Historical games between these clubs trend slightly over the total. Trainin...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
Under 8.5
While both teams can score, strong pitching often dictates lower-scoring games in competitive matchups. Assuming a typical MLB game with sol...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
over
Both teams possess strong offenses capable of scoring, and their recent games suggest a tendency towards higher scoring affairs. The Astros'...
DeepSeek V3
55%
Over 7.5
Both lineups feature power hitters; Astros and Twins rank above average in runs per game. Pitching matchups likely to be average, leading to...
Spread
ConsensusHouston Astros -1.5 4/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
51%
Houston Astros -1.5
Home-field advantage in baseball is modest (roughly 54% win rate historically), so laying -1.5 runs is a slight lean rather than a strong co...
GPT-5 Mini
48%
Houston Astros -1.5
The Astros covering a -1.5 runline is plausible because of their stronger lineup at home and the ability to add runs late with a deeper benc...
GPT-4o Mini
50%
Minnesota Twins
The Twins have been winning by an average margin of 2 runs in their recent games, indicating a potential for covering the -1.5 spread. Howev...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
home_ -1.5
Houston's home advantage and bullpen edge support covering a modest run line. Twins road performance has been uneven. Training data through...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Houston Astros -1.5
If the Astros win as expected at home, they often do so by more than one run, demonstrating their offensive power and ability to close out g...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
52%
Minnesota Twins
While the Astros are a formidable opponent at home, the Twins' ability to win close games and their strong pitching make them a capable bet...
DeepSeek V3
48%
Houston Astros -1.5
Astros are strong but winning by 2+ runs is not guaranteed against a competitive Twins team. Twins have decent bullpen depth, making cover l...
First 5 innings
ConsensusHouston Astros 4/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Houston Astros
Early-inning dominance often correlates with starting pitcher quality and top-of-order hitter discipline. The Astros' historical strength at...
GPT-5 Mini
54%
Minnesota Twins
First-five-inning outcome leans to the Twins (away) because Taj Bradley has been better in the aggregate and Imai has shown bouts of early-i...
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Minnesota Twins
The Twins have been strong in the first five innings, often taking early leads. Their starting pitcher has a solid first-inning ERA, which c...
Grok 4 Fast
55%
Houston Astros
Astros typically strong early with starting pitching. Twins have struggled to score in first five on road recently. Training data through 20...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros typically boast strong starting pitching, which gives them an advantage in the early innings, especially at home. Their d...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
53%
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have shown a strong ability to start games effectively, with their top pitchers often performing well in the early innin...
DeepSeek V3
58%
Houston Astros
Astros starting pitchers have been reliable early in games; Twins tend to start slower. Astros first-five record at home is strong. Edge to...
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Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
4 tool calls · 3 sources
3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
72 tool calls · 7 sources
7 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
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