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MLB
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Houston Astros logo

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians logo

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 21 · 18:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 18 · 05:49 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: d171eb9fc062ec24…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 21 · 18:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4946,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-21T18:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 18:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "home": "Houston Astros"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-18T05:49:35+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Houston Astros

Houston Astros are favored as the home team in late June 2026. The Guardians have been competitive but the Astros' home-field advantage and...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have demonstrated strong home performance in recent seasons, while the Cleveland Guardians have struggled in away games....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Houston Astros

Astros hold home-field edge and stronger overall roster depth per historical patterns through 2025. Guardians road performance has been inco...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Houston Astros

Based on historical team performance from my training data through early 2024, the Houston Astros generally possess a stronger overall roste...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Houston Astros

Based on general MLB team performance trends and historical data, the Houston Astros are often a stronger team than the Cleveland Guardians....

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Houston Astros

The Astros have consistently been a strong home team with deep playoff experience, while the Guardians rely on pitching and may struggle aga...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Both Houston and Cleveland have capable offenses. Astros typically feature strong hitters and the Guardians have competitive lineups. Withou...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown tendencies to engage in high-scoring games, with the Astros averaging 5.2 runs per game at home and the Guardians aver...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Both lineups feature power hitters who elevate run totals in summer months. Training data through 2025-09 indicates Astros home games averag...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

Given the Astros' historical offensive capabilities and their home-field advantage, games involving Houston often lean towards higher run to...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Baseball games, especially in MLB, often have a total of 2.5 runs or more, reflecting the scoring potential of professional teams. This pick...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 9.5

Both lineups feature power hitters and ballparks like Minute Maid Park favor offense. Astros' pitching depth is solid but Guardians' starter...

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Spread

Consensus
Houston Astros 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Houston Astros -1.5

The Astros are slight home favorites and -1.5 suggests a close contest. Without live starting pitcher information, bullpen health, or recent...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Houston Astros

The Astros have a strong home record, often winning by multiple runs. In their last 10 home games, they have covered the -1.5 spread 7 times...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Houston Astros

Houston's starting pitching depth gives them a slight edge to cover typical run-line spreads at home. Guardians struggle to score consistent...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Houston Astros -1.5

The Houston Astros, historically strong contenders, are often capable of winning games by more than one run, especially at home against AL c...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Houston Astros

The spread of -1.5 indicates a close game is expected. I am picking the home team to cover the spread, assuming a slight edge due to playing...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Cleveland Guardians +1.5

Guardians are competitive and often keep games close due to strong bullpen and defense. Even in a loss, they are likely to cover a 1.5-run s...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Houston Astros 4/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5 (first 5 innings)

First-five-innings markets often trend toward lower totals because offenses typically need time to establish rhythm against starting pitcher...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Houston Astros

The Astros have been strong in the first five innings at home, leading in 6 of their last 10 home games at the 5-inning mark. The Guardians...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Houston Astros

Early-inning offense tends to favor the Astros at home based on historical splits. Guardians have shown slower starts on the road through 20...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 57% Houston Astros

Historically, the Astros' starting pitching and early-game offense are strong, allowing them to establish leads in the initial innings. Agai...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Houston Astros

Predicting the winner after five innings often reflects early game momentum. I'm predicting the Houston Astros to be slightly ahead, based o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

First five innings away home

Consensus
Houston Astros 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Houston Astros

Astros typically have stronger starting pitching and are aggressive early offensively. Guardians may rely on bullpen later, but early inning...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 6 sources

    6 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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