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MLB Major League Baseball · Daikin Park
Awaiting result · 1233h 01m ago
Houston Astros logo

Houston AstrosvsBaltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks · 16 graded

AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Houston Astros -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Houston Astros -1.5 L

Houston's marginal form edge (3-2 vs 2-3) and home-field advantage support a slight lean to the Astros covering a -1.5 spread, though the co...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% home_ -1.5

A narrow lean to Astros by at least 2 runs: Brown's ability to generate strikeouts and limit damage paired with Houston's home lineup gives...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Baltimore Orioles W

The Orioles' recent form and better away record suggest they are more likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% Houston Astros

Houston's home record and scoring edge support covering a spread. Orioles have allowed equal runs recently without clear defensive edge. Tra...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Houston Astros -1.5 L

Building on the H2H prediction, the Astros' slightly better form and home-field advantage suggest a reasonable chance for them to win by mor...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Baltimore Orioles W

While the recent form is close, the Orioles have shown a slightly better ability to win games outright. Considering the tight nature of the...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Houston Astros -1.5 L

The run line is difficult to predict given the even matchup. The Astros have home field and a slight edge in recent form, suggesting they co...

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Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Houston Astros L

Houston shows marginally better recent form (3W-2L vs Baltimore's 2W-3L over the last 5 matches) and a neutral run differential. Both teams...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Houston Astros L

MLB's official probable pitchers page lists Kyle Bradish (Orioles) vs. Hunter Brown (Astros) for July 19; Brown has shown stronger recent ru...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Baltimore Orioles W

The Orioles have shown a stronger recent form, winning 7 of their last 10 games, compared to the Astros' 4 wins in the same span. Additional...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Houston Astros L

Astros hold home advantage at Daikin Park and show stronger recent scoring output. Orioles form is mixed with equal goals scored and concede...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Houston Astros L

The Houston Astros hold a slight edge in recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 games compared to the Baltimore Orioles' 2 wins. Coupled wit...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Baltimore Orioles W

The Baltimore Orioles have a slightly better recent form (LLLWW) compared to the Houston Astros (LWLWW). Although both teams are coming off...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Houston Astros L

Both teams are evenly matched with similar recent form. However, the Astros have home-field advantage at Daikin Park, which slightly tips th...

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Bookmaker line: Houston Astros 56%

First 5 innings

Consensus
Houston Astros 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

Early-inning totals typically reflect starting-pitcher quality and the absence of long-relief usage in the first 5 innings. Given that both...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Houston Astros

Hunter Brown's strikeout ability and early-inning control makes Houston likelier to hold a lead through five innings, and Bradish is more ho...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles' recent form and better away record suggest they are more likely to lead after the first five innings in this matchup.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Houston Astros

Starting pitcher and home lineup advantage typically decides early innings. Both clubs have comparable rest but Houston shows better early s...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 45% Houston Astros

The first five innings outcome is heavily influenced by starting pitchers, which are unknown for this 2026 event. However, based on the Astr...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

The early innings often set the tone, and with both offenses capable of scoring and the potential for early pitching struggles, we predict t...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Houston Astros

In the first five innings, the starting pitchers and bullpen are less of a factor. The Astros have a stronger starting rotation and the home...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 8.5 W

Both teams have identical run differentials (31 scored, 31 conceded) and modest offensive outputs in their last 5 games (Houston 31 runs, Ba...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under_8.5 W

Closed-roof conditions at Daikin Park in midsummer historically lower wind carry and suppress extra-run scoring compared to open-air games;...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have been scoring and conceding runs at similar rates, with the Orioles averaging 4.6 runs per game and the Astros averaging 4.6...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams average high run totals in recent games with 10+ runs per side across last five. Ballpark factors at Daikin Park lean slightly hi...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5

Both teams have shown a propensity for higher-scoring games recently, with the Astros averaging over 6 runs and the Orioles over 4 runs in t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over W

Both teams have demonstrated a tendency to score and concede a significant number of runs in their recent matches, with combined scores ofte...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 8.5

Both teams have shown high-scoring tendencies recently, with the Astros averaging over 6 runs per game in their last five and the Orioles sc...

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Bookmaker line: 8.0 · Over 53%

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Houston Astros

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Houston Astros

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Houston Astros

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Baltimore Orioles

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Houston Astros

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Baltimore Orioles

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Houston Astros

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1223–997 · 55%
-800.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 737–629 · 54%
-408.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 1439–1533 · 48%
-1,291.5u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1065–1142 · 48%
-979.0u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1798–1929 · 48%
-1,743.7u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1786–1978 · 47%
-1,669.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 1481–1738 · 46%
-1,536.8u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Bookmaker odds

1 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted

Book Houston Astros Draw Baltimore Orioles
Draftkings 1.79 — 2.06
Book Line Over Under
Draftkings 8.0 1.88 1.95
Book Houston Astros Baltimore Orioles

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 1eda8ef89f15cb63…
Kickoff
Sun, Jul 19 · 18:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 13432,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Daikin Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-19T18:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 19 Jul 2026 18:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "home": "Houston Astros"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLWW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWLWW",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 31,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 31
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 10,
            "home": 10
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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