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MLB Major League Baseball · Daikin Park
Upcoming · in 88h 24m
Houston Astros logo

Houston AstrosvsBaltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles logo
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Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Houston Astros

Houston enters with slightly better recent form (3W-2L vs Baltimore 2W-3L) and equal rest (9 days). Home-field advantage at Daikin Park is m...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Houston Astros

Probable starter edge to Houston: Hunter Brown (returned from the IL and has produced quality, multi-inning outings in recent starts) vs. Tr...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have shown a slight edge in recent form, with a 2W-0D-3L record compared to the Astros' 3W-0D-2L. Both teams have scored and con...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Houston Astros

Astros play at home in Daikin Park with a slight edge in recent form (3W-2L vs 2W-3L). Training data through 2025-09 shows Houston typically...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Houston Astros

Based on provided recent form, the Houston Astros show a slight edge with a 3W-2L record compared to the Baltimore Orioles' 2W-3L, and a mor...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles have a slight edge due to their recent offensive surge, indicated by scoring 22 runs in their last 5 games. While the...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Houston Astros

Both teams are on extended rest (9 days), which could disrupt rhythm, but the Astros have home-field advantage at Daikin Park. Baltimore's r...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have scored 31 and 22 runs respectively over their last 5 matches (roughly 4.4 and 4.4 runs per game). July weather in Houston ty...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% over

Both teams have averaged noticeable run production in their recent five-game samples and the matchup pairs a mid-rotation arm (Rogers) who h...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have demonstrated high-scoring games recently, with the Orioles scoring 22 runs and conceding 22 in their last five matches, and...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams scored and allowed 22+ runs in last 5 games each. Warm July weather at Daikin Park typically inflates totals. Training knowledge...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5 Runs

The Astros' recent games have been high-scoring, with 31 runs scored and 31 conceded in their last five, indicating offensive prowess and po...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Both teams have demonstrated significant offensive capabilities recently, averaging over 4 runs per game. The venue, Daikin Park, is known t...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Daikin Park is known for being neutral to slightly hitter-friendly, and both offenses have decent power. Extended rest can lead to rust in p...

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Spread

Consensus
Baltimore Orioles 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Houston -1.5

Houston's 3-2 recent record and home-field advantage support a modest run-line pick. The -1.5 spread is reasonable given Houston's form edge...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% home_cover

Given Hunter Brown's status as Houston's frontline starter (and his recent multi-inning returns), the Astros are likelier to win by multiple...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Baltimore Orioles

Given the Orioles' slight edge in recent form and the high-scoring nature of both teams, the Orioles are expected to cover the -1 spread. Th...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% home_ -1.5

Houston favored at home with better recent record. Spreads favor the stronger home side in MLB per historical patterns. Limited to training...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Houston Astros -1.5

Given the Astros are slightly favored to win outright based on recent form and historical strength, taking them to cover the -1.5 spread is...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Baltimore Orioles

Given the Orioles' recent offensive form and slight edge in head-to-head performance, they are more likely to cover a -1 spread. Their abili...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Houston Astros -1.5

While the Astros are favored to win, a two-run margin is not guaranteed given Baltimore's ability to score. The spread requires a convincing...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Houston Astros 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 4.5

First five innings typically account for 50–55% of game totals in modern MLB. If the full-game total leans Over 8.5, the first-five split su...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Houston Astros

First-five advantage to Houston: Hunter Brown has shown the ability to work through the lineup effectively in early innings since his return...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles' recent form and offensive output suggest they may take an early lead in the first five innings. Their recent performance indica...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Houston Astros

Early game edge to Astros at home before bullpens factor in. Form and venue support home side through first five. Prediction based solely on...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 50% Houston Astros

Without specific 2026 starting pitcher information, this pick relies on the general team strength and recent offensive performance. The Astr...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles' starting pitchers have shown more consistency in recent outings compared to the Astros. This pitching advantage, combined with...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Houston Astros

Home teams often have advantage in first five innings due to batting last, and Astros have strong early-game performance historically. Witho...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Houston Astros

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Houston Astros

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Houston Astros

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Baltimore Orioles

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Baltimore Orioles

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Houston Astros

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Houston Astros

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1043–787 · 57%
-590.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 678–576 · 54%
-356.7u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1116–1095 · 50%
-909.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 735–738 · 50%
-496.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1012–1021 · 50%
-712.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 864–915 · 49%
-713.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1004–1080 · 48%
-917.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 99117c991c99eaf4…
Kickoff
Sat, Jul 18 · 00:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 12996,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Daikin Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-18T00:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 18 Jul 2026 00:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "home": "Houston Astros"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLWW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWLWW",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 31,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 31
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 9,
            "home": 9
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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