Football FIFA World Cup

Final 7 – 1

Germany vs Curaçao

Final: 7 – 1

Picks locked at Jun 13 · 07:47 GMT+0000 71 picks recorded · 55 graded CLV +0.1% vs market close

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    616be2cf2f06e3f6…

Kickoff: Sun, Jun 14 · 17:01 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 359,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "FIFA World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T17:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 17:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Curaçao",
        "home": "Germany"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T07:48:23+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": {
            "away": 85,
            "draw": 25,
            "home": 1.06
        },
        "note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
        "extra_markets": {
            "h2h": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 19,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.05,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 33,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 20,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.03,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 41,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 15,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.04,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 26,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 16,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.04,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 51,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 17,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.04,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 35,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 19,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.05,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 35,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 15,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.05,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 40,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 16,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.03,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 36,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 17,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.04,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 31,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 25,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.06,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 44,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 21,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.04,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 60,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 13,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.03,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 56,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 15,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.04,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 34,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 13,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.06,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 85,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 13,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.06,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 85,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 18,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.03,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 46,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 18.75,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.03,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 38,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 15,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.03,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 35,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 15,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.03,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 29,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 15,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.02,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 63,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 17,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.02,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 29,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 17,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.02,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 41,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 23.98,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.06,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 42.02,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 19,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.05,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 33,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                }
            ],
            "totals": [
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 1.77,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 2.14,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 1.74,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 2.15,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 1.66,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 2.04,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.25,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.25,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 1.84,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 2.16,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 1.81,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 2.03,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 4.65,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.2,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 1.73,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 2.09,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 4.65,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.2,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 1.68,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 2.12,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4,
                    "price": 2.03,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4,
                    "price": 1.7,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 1.65,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 2.08,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 1.77,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 4.5,
                    "price": 2.14,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                }
            ],
            "h2h_lay": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 26,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.07,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 48,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 25.97,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.07,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 50,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                }
            ],
            "spreads": [
                {
                    "point": -3.5,
                    "price": 2.08,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": 3.5,
                    "price": 1.81,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": -3.5,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": 3.5,
                    "price": 1.8,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": -3.5,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": 3.5,
                    "price": 1.8,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": -3.5,
                    "price": 2,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": 3.5,
                    "price": 1.94,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": -3.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": 3.5,
                    "price": 1.88,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": -3.5,
                    "price": 1.94,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": 3.5,
                    "price": 1.81,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": -3.5,
                    "price": 1.79,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": 3.5,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                },
                {
                    "point": -3.5,
                    "price": 2.08,
                    "outcome": "Germany"
                },
                {
                    "point": 3.5,
                    "price": 1.81,
                    "outcome": "Curaçao"
                }
            ]
        }
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

Featured · open arena

7 markets · 11 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 7 markets · click a row to see reasoning

High Mid Low

Model	Both teams to score ?	Spread ? book: Germany -3.5	Match winner ? book: Germany 94%	Over / Under ? book: 4.5 · Over 48%	Half-time / Full-time ?	Correct score ?	Asian handicap ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 32-54 -29.9u	72% No ~1.08 L	82% Germany -1 ~1.28	94% Germany ~1.06 W	88% Over 2.5 ~2.22 W	78% Germany / Germany	18% 3-0 L	70% Germany -2.5 ~2.43 W
Both teams to score ? 72% No Curaçao have managed just three goals across their last five matches and face Neuer behind a Tah-led back four. Germany should dominate poss... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Edge: -20.6% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Spread ? 82% Germany -1 Germany are tipped to win by multiple goals; the -3.5 line is priced near even money, so a -1 margin is heavily expected. A two-or-more goal... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.28 Edge: +3.9% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Match winner ? 94% Germany Germany are on a nine-match winning streak with their full first-choice attack (Wirtz, Musiala, Sané, Havertz) available, while Curaçao – th... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: -0.3% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Over / Under ? 88% Over 2.5 Books price Over 2.5 at 1.19 (~84% implied) given Germany's attacking depth versus a defense that shipped nine to Australia and Scotland in... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.22 Edge: +43.0% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 78% Germany / Germany Germany typically start strong and with their stacked front four against a low block they should break the deadlock before half-time. A Germ... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Correct score ? 18% 3-0 Models and tipsters cluster around a 3-0/4-0 Germany win given the talent gulf and Curaçao's recent leakiness. 3-0 sits at the modal scoreli... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Asian handicap ? 70% Germany -2.5 With -3.5 trading near pick'em, the fair spread sits between -3 and -3.5, so a -2.5 line is comfortably in Germany's favor. Expected scoreli... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.43 Edge: +28.9% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 31-55 -28.7u	60% No ~1.08 L	90% Germany -1 ~1.28	94% Germany ~1.06 W	88% Over 2.5 ~2.22 W	78% Germany / Germany	16% 4-0 L	50% Germany -3.5 ~4.85 W
Both teams to score ? 60% No While Germany will dominate possession and create numerous chances, Curaçao's ability to score is questionable — they managed only 3 goals i... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Edge: -32.6% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Spread ? 90% Germany -1 With the spread at -3.5 in the market being close to a coin flip, a -1 spread for Germany is an extremely comfortable cover. Germany's attac... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.28 Edge: +11.9% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Match winner ? 94% Germany Germany have won all five recent friendlies scoring 18 goals, averaging 3.6 goals per game under Nagelsmann's attacking system. Curaçao, mak... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: -0.3% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Over / Under ? 88% Over 2.5 Germany scored 18 goals in 5 pre-tournament friendlies under Nagelsmann's attacking philosophy, averaging 3.6 goals per game. The over 2.5 l... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.22 Edge: +43.0% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 78% Germany / Germany Germany are likely to start aggressively and establish an early lead against Curaçao, who will be nervous in their first-ever World Cup matc... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Correct score ? 16% 4-0 Given Germany's 3.6 goals-per-game average in recent friendlies and Curaçao's porous defense (lost 4-1 to Scotland), a 4-0 scoreline represe... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Asian handicap ? 50% Germany -3.5 The Asian handicap market centers around -3.5 at near even money, reflecting the market's view that this is a genuine toss-up at that line.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 4.85 Edge: +29.4% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 5-3 -1.9u	Claude Opus 4.8 hasn't run on this match yet. Unlock this model →
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 234-279 -217.2u	75% No ~1.08 L	88% Germany ~1.06 W	96% Germany ~1.07 W	93% Over ~1.17 W	88% Germany / Germany	—	52% Germany -3.5 ~4.85 W
Both teams to score ? 75% No While Germany will almost certainly score multiple goals, Curaçao is very unlikely to breach a disciplined German defensive unit in a match... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Spread ? 88% Germany With the spread set at -3.5 for Germany at roughly evens (~2.05), Germany winning by 4+ goals is priced as a coin flip. Given the quality ch... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Match winner ? 96% Germany Germany is a perennial World Cup powerhouse currently ranked in the top 15 globally, while Curaçao is a small Caribbean island nation (FIFA... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.07 Edge: +2.5% Over / Under ? 93% Over The market itself prices Over 2.5 at ~1.21 (implied ~83%), but the true probability is even higher given Germany's attacking depth and Curaç... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.17 Edge: +7.5% Half-time / Full-time ? 88% Germany / Germany Germany leading at half-time and winning at full-time is the overwhelming most likely scenario. Germany will press high from the start, and... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? 52% Germany -3.5 The Asian handicap at -3.5 is near evens (1.94–2.08), reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether Germany wins by 4+. Germany's attack feat... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 4.85
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 273-314 -264.0u	70% No ~1.08 L	82% Germany ~1.06 W	98% Germany ~1.06 W	75% Over ~1.17 W	85% Germany / Germany	—	80% Germany -1.5 ~1.49 W
Both teams to score ? 70% No Curaçao has minimal offensive threat against a world-class German defense. While Curaçao may score a lucky goal or penalty in rare circumsta... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Spread ? 82% Germany Germany winning by 2+ goals (covering -1 spread) is highly probable given the massive gulf in class. Consensus spreads at -3.5 suggest bookm... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Match winner ? 98% Germany Germany is a perennial World Cup powerhouse with far superior squad depth, technical ability, and tournament pedigree compared to Curaçao, a... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: +3.7% Over / Under ? 75% Over Germany typically dominates possession and creates numerous chances against weaker opponents. Curaçao will likely be forced into a defensive... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.17 Edge: -10.5% Half-time / Full-time ? 85% Germany / Germany Germany will almost certainly lead at halftime (given possession dominance and superior finishing) and maintain that advantage through full-... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? 80% Germany -1.5 Germany winning by 2+ goals is the modal outcome; -1.5 Asian handicap aligns with that expectation. The steep odds reflect bookmaker confide... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.49
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 4-0 +0.0u	GPT-5 hasn't run on this match yet. Unlock this model →
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 82-63 +7.3u	65% No ~1.08 L	86% Germany ~1.06 W	92% Germany ~1.06 W	78% Over ~1.18 W	68% Germany / Germany	24% 4-0 L	62% Germany -2 ~1.85 W
Both teams to score ? 65% No While Curaçao can score occasionally, Germany's defence and the return of Neuer raise the likelihood of a German clean sheet, especially if... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Edge: -27.6% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Spread ? 86% Germany A Germany -1 spread requirement (Germany to win by more than one) is very plausible given Germany's attacking form, predicted strong XI and... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: -8.3% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Match winner ? 92% Germany Germany are heavy favourites with excellent pre-tournament form (recent friendly wins and attacking players in form) while Curaçao are tourn... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: -2.3% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Over / Under ? 78% Over Germany's recent friendlies show offensive firepower (4-0 vs Finland, strong attacking midfielders and strikers) while Curaçao conceded mult... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.18 Edge: -6.8% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 68% Germany / Germany Given Germany's quality edge and likely tactical setup to dominate early, the most probable half-time/full-time scenario is Germany leading... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Correct score ? 24% 4-0 Multiple reputable previews and Germany's warm-up form point toward a multi-goal German victory; 4-0 is a logical single-score favourite giv... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Asian handicap ? 62% Germany -2 An Asian handicap of Germany -2 (Germany to win by more than two goals) fits previews and form indicators — Germany look likely to score mul... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.85 Edge: +8.0% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 130-141 -98.2u	80% No ~1.08 L	90% Germany ~1.06 W	95% Germany ~1.06 W	85% Over ~1.18 W	85% Germany / Germany	70% 3-0 L	85% Germany -3.5 ~4.85 W
Both teams to score ? 80% No Curaçao is likely to focus on defense, making it challenging to score against Germany's strong backline. ([squawka.com](https://www.squawka.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Edge: -12.6% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Spread ? 90% Germany Germany is expected to win by at least two goals, given their superior squad and form. ([squawka.com](https://www.squawka.com/us/news/world-... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: -4.3% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Match winner ? 95% Germany Germany enters the match as a four-time World Cup champion, facing debutants Curaçao. The disparity in experience and squad quality heavily... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: +0.7% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Over / Under ? 85% Over Germany's potent attack is expected to overwhelm Curaçao's defense, leading to a high-scoring game. ([squawka.com](https://www.squawka.com/u... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.18 Edge: +0.2% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 85% Germany / Germany Germany is expected to take the lead early and maintain it throughout the match. ([squawka.com](https://www.squawka.com/us/news/world-cup/ma... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Correct score ? 70% 3-0 A 3-0 victory for Germany is anticipated, considering their offensive strength and Curaçao's defensive approach. ([squawka.com](https://www.... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Asian handicap ? 85% Germany -3.5 Germany is favored to win by a large margin, with a -3.5 handicap reflecting their dominance. ([sports.betmgm.com](https://sports.betmgm.com... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 4.85 Edge: +64.4% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited
o4-mini Flagship Openai	o4-mini hasn't run on this match yet. Unlock this model →
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market.
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 1-3 -3.0u	Grok 4.3 hasn't run on this match yet. Unlock this model →
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market.
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 256-277 -179.2u	82% No ~1.08 L	91% Germany ~1.06 W	96% Germany ~1.06 W	88% Over ~1.17 W	85% Germany / Germany	—	79% Germany -3.5 ~4.85 W
Both teams to score ? 82% No Curaçao has failed to score in most games against European sides. Germany keeps clean sheets in 70% of such fixtures per historical data. Ex... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Spread ? 91% Germany Germany should win by 3+ goals based on ranking differential and past results. Spreads at -3.5 are around even money, confirming the market... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Match winner ? 96% Germany Germany is a top-10 FIFA side while Curaçao ranks outside the top 100; the talent gap is enormous. Training data through 2025 shows Germany... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: +1.7% Over / Under ? 88% Over Germany averages 3.8 goals per game against minnows; Curaçao concedes heavily. Expect 4-6 goals total. Training data through 2025 confirms s... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.17 Edge: +2.5% Half-time / Full-time ? 85% Germany / Germany Germany scores early and controls matches; they lead at half-time in 75% of games vs. low-ranked teams. Full-time win is near-certain, makin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? 79% Germany -3.5 Consensus lines sit near -3.5 at even odds, aligning with expected goal differential of 4-5. Germany regularly exceeds this margin against f... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 4.85
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 4-0 +0.0u	Gemini 3.1 Pro hasn't run on this match yet. Unlock this model →
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 28-57 -34.7u	85% No ~1.08 L	94% Germany ~1.06 W	96% Germany ~1.06 W	92% Over ~1.18 W	90% Germany / Germany	18% 4-0 L	52% Germany -3.5 ~4.85 W
Both teams to score ? 85% No While Curaçao has some capable attackers with experience in Europe, they will struggle to create chances against a German defense marshalled... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Edge: -7.6% 6 sources cited Spread ? 94% Germany A one-goal spread is exceptionally low for a match with such a vast quality disparity. Germany is not only expected to win but to win comfor... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: -0.3% 6 sources cited Match winner ? 96% Germany This is a monumental mismatch. Germany, a four-time World Cup champion and perennial powerhouse ranked 10th, faces World Cup debutants Curaç... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: +1.7% 6 sources cited Over / Under ? 92% Over Germany's potent attack, featuring world-class players like Musiala, Wirtz, and Havertz, is expected to overwhelm Curaçao's defense. Germany... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.18 Edge: +7.2% 6 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 90% Germany / Germany Germany will aim to assert dominance from the opening whistle, and it's highly likely they will score in the first half to take control of t... Unlock reasoning · Pro 6 sources cited Correct score ? 18% 4-0 A comfortable, high-scoring win with a clean sheet is the most probable result for Germany. A 4-0 scoreline reflects German dominance withou... Unlock reasoning · Pro 6 sources cited Asian handicap ? 52% Germany -3.5 The market line is set at -3.5, which reflects the massive gap between the teams. While Curaçao, under veteran coach Dick Advocaat, will lik... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 4.85 Edge: +31.4% 6 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 217-268 -235.0u	90% No ~1.08 L	90% Germany -1 ~1.28	95% Germany ~1.06 W	88% Over 2.5 ~2.22 W	85% Germany / Germany	—	55% Germany -3.5 AH ~4.85
Both teams to score ? 90% No It is highly unlikely for Curaçao to score against Germany's robust defense, especially in a competitive World Cup match. Germany will aim f... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Spread ? 90% Germany -1 Germany is expected to dominate and win by a significant margin. A win by two or more goals (Germany -1 handicap) is very likely against a t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.28 Match winner ? 95% Germany This prediction relies on general football knowledge as the match is in the future (2026). Germany is a top-tier football nation with a rich... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: +0.7% Over / Under ? 88% Over 2.5 Given the significant disparity in quality between Germany and Curaçao, Germany is expected to score multiple goals. A strong offensive perf... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.22 Half-time / Full-time ? 85% Germany / Germany Germany is expected to assert their dominance from the outset and lead comfortably at half-time, maintaining their advantage to secure the w... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? 55% Germany -3.5 AH Considering Germany's superior attacking talent and the need for goal difference in a World Cup, they are capable of winning by four or more... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 4.85
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 202-282 -206.8u	80% No ~1.08 L	85% Germany ~1.06 W	98% Germany ~1.06 W	90% Over ~1.18 W	90% Germany / Germany	—	80% Germany -3.5 ~4.87 W
Both teams to score ? 80% No Germany possesses a very strong defense and is expected to dominate possession and limit Curaçao's chances. Curaçao's offensive capabilities... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Edge: -12.6% Spread ? 85% Germany Germany is expected to win by a margin of more than one goal, given the vast difference in quality between the two teams. Their superior att... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: -9.3% Match winner ? 98% Germany Germany is a significantly stronger footballing nation with a rich history in international tournaments, while Curaçao is a much weaker oppo... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: +3.7% Over / Under ? 90% Over Given the significant disparity in quality between Germany and Curaçao, it's highly probable that Germany will score multiple goals. Curaçao... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.18 Edge: +5.2% Half-time / Full-time ? 90% Germany / Germany Germany is expected to assert dominance from the start and maintain it throughout the match. They are likely to score in the first half and... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? 80% Germany -3.5 Considering Germany's historical strength and Curaçao's relative weakness on the international stage, Germany is likely to secure a dominant... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 4.87 Edge: +59.5%
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 262-307 -181.4u	85% No ~1.08 L	93% Germany -1 ~1.28	96% Germany ~1.06 W	88% Over 2.5 ~2.22 W	92% Germany / Germany	—	70% Germany -3.5 ~4.85 W
Both teams to score ? 85% No Curaçao has minimal attacking threat against a top defense like Germany's. Germany's clean sheet is highly probable. Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.08 Spread ? 93% Germany -1 The spread at -1 is extremely favorable as Germany is expected to win by multiple goals. Germany's depth and quality should cover this comfo... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.28 Match winner ? 96% Germany Germany is a top-tier nation with deep World Cup experience, while Curaçao is a minnow with a massive gulf in quality. The odds reflect this... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.06 Edge: +1.7% Over / Under ? 88% Over 2.5 Historically, Germany scores heavily against weaker sides in World Cup group matches, often netting 4+ goals. Curaçao's defense will struggl... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.22 Half-time / Full-time ? 92% Germany / Germany Germany will dominate from the start and lead at halftime, extending their lead in the second half. Curaçao has no realistic chance of leadi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Correct score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? 70% Germany -3.5 Given Germany's attacking prowess and Curaçao's defensive limitations, a 4+ goal margin is plausible. However, such handicaps carry risk if... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 4.85
Consensus	No 11/11	Germany 7/11	Germany 11/11	Over 7/11	Germany / Germany 11/11	4-0 3/5	Germany -3.5 7/11
Bookmaker line	—	Germany -3.5	Germany 94%	4.5 · Over 48%	—	—	—

Ⓟ

Polymarket: tournament odds

Implied probability · live

What real money is betting on each team to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy.

Germany

to win World Cup

5.7%

Curaçao

to win World Cup

0.1%

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Bookmaker odds

51 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted

Book	Germany	Draw	Curaçao
Pinnacle ↗	1.04	21.00	41.00
Draftkings ↗	1.03	16.00	29.00
Fanduel ↗	1.05	20.00	36.00
Betmgm	1.06	14.50	36.00
William Hill	1.05	17.00	36.00
Betfair Exchange UK	1.06	25.00	46.00
Betfair Exchange EU	1.06	25.00	46.00
Betanysports	1.04	18.00	29.00
Betclic FR	1.03	22.00	40.00
Betfair UK	1.03	15.00	41.00
Betfred	1.04	15.00	34.00
BetOnline	1.05	19.00	33.00
Betrivers	1.03	18.00	41.00
Betsson	1.04	18.00	80.00
Betus	1.03	20.00	41.00
Betvictor	1.03	13.00	56.00
Betway	1.04	19.00	41.00
Bovada	1.04	18.00	29.00
Boylesports	1.02	17.00	29.00
Casumo	1.03	18.00	41.00
Codere It	1.04	17.00	35.00
Coolbet	1.06	16.00	45.00
Coral	1.06	15.00	34.00
Everygame	1.03	19.00	34.00
Fanatics	1.04	16.00	51.00
Grosvenor	1.03	17.00	41.00
Gtbets	1.04	17.18	37.99
Ladbrokes	1.06	15.00	34.00
Leovegas	1.03	18.00	41.00
Leovegas Se	1.03	18.00	41.00
Livescorebet	1.02	17.00	41.00
LowVig	1.05	19.00	33.00
Marathonbet	1.04	17.75	48.00
Matchbook	1.06	25.00	46.00
MyBookie	1.02	14.75	55.00
Nordicbet	1.04	18.00	80.00
Onexbet	1.04	21.00	55.00
Paddy Power	1.04	19.00	34.00
Pmu	1.02	17.00	41.00
Skybet	1.03	26.00	29.00
Smarkets	1.05	23.98	46.08
Sport888	1.04	15.00	41.00
Tipico	1.05	19.00	35.00
Unibet	1.03	23.00	40.00
Unibet Nl	1.05	23.00	41.00
Unibet Se	1.05	23.00	41.00
Unibet	1.03	15.00	56.00
Virginbet	1.02	17.00	41.00
Williamhill	1.03	16.00	34.00
Winamax	1.05	15.00	35.00
Winamax	1.03	15.00	30.00

Book	Line	Over	Under
Pinnacle ↗	4.3	1.92	1.92
Betmgm	4.5	2.10	1.74
William Hill	2.5	1.18	4.60
Betanysports	4.3	1.87	1.87
BetOnline	4.5	2.10	1.79
Betrivers	4.5	2.08	1.72
Betsson	2.5	1.19	4.90
Betus	4.5	2.15	1.74
Bovada	4.3	1.91	1.91
Casumo	4.5	2.08	1.72
Codere It	4.5	2.04	1.66
Coolbet	4.0	1.74	2.10
Grosvenor	4.5	2.08	1.72
Gtbets	4.5	2.09	1.73
Leovegas	4.5	2.08	1.72
LowVig	4.5	2.10	1.79
Matchbook	4.5	2.20	1.82
MyBookie	4.0	1.74	2.10
Nordicbet	2.5	1.19	4.90
Onexbet	4.5	2.06	1.78
Pmu	4.5	2.04	1.68
Unibet Nl	4.5	2.08	1.72
Unibet Se	4.5	2.12	1.74

Book	Germany	Curaçao
Pinnacle ↗	-3.5 @ 2.02	+3.3 @ 2.02
Betanysports	-3.5 @ 1.91	+3.5 @ 1.91
BetOnline	-3.5 @ 1.94	+3.5 @ 1.91
Betus	-3.5 @ 1.91	+3.5 @ 1.91
Bovada	-3.5 @ 1.95	+3.3 @ 2.08
Gtbets	-3.5 @ 1.94	+3.5 @ 1.81
LowVig	-3.5 @ 1.94	+3.5 @ 1.91
Matchbook	-3.5 @ 2.04	+3.3 @ 2.06
MyBookie	-3.5 @ 1.89	+3.5 @ 1.92
Onexbet	-3.5 @ 1.97	+3.5 @ 1.86

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-5 Mini
84 tool calls · 6 sources

6 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Claude Opus 4.7
7 tool calls · 7 sources

7 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Pro
0 tool calls · 6 sources

6 citations captured — unlock with Pro
GPT-4o Mini
7 tool calls · 6 sources

6 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Opus 4.6
21 tool calls · 7 sources

7 citations captured — unlock with Pro

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