EnglandvsCroatia
England 4–2 Croatia
All 13 AIs backed England — and reality agreed.
- AI lean
- England 13/13
- Correct calls
- 13/13
- Final
- 4–2
Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.
AI predictions
Featured · open arena7 markets · 13 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
16 models × 7 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
book: 2.5 · Over 47% |
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
book: England -0.5 |
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
book: England 57% |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
No 12/13 models |
1-0 10/13 models |
Under 10/13 models |
England 5/13 models |
England -0.5 4/13 models |
Draw / England 7/13 models |
England 13/13 models |
|
| Bookmaker line | — | — | 2.5 · Over 47% | England -0.5 | — | — | England 57% | |
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
60%
No
~1.84
L
|
16%
1-0
L
|
58%
Under
~1.74
L
|
62%
Croatia +1
~1.81
L
|
55%
England -0.5
~1.73
W
|
28%
Draw / England |
55%
England
~1.85
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
No England have not conceded in their qualifying campaign and are on a 10-match competitive clean sheet streak with Stones-Konsa likely in cent...
Odds: 1.84
Edge: +5.7%
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
16%
1-0 A controlled 1-0 fits the narrative of an England side dominating possession against a deep, organised Croatia back three and grinding out a...
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Under Croatia keep games tight and rarely beat themselves, while England's last six have largely gone Under and BTTS failed in 9 of 10. England's...
Odds: 1.74
Edge: +0.5%
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
62%
Croatia +1 Croatia rarely lose by multiple goals at major tournaments and only conceded four goals across qualifying. England are favored but tournamen...
Odds: 1.81
Edge: +6.8%
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
England -0.5 Equivalent to backing England on the moneyline, which is supported by their form, depth, and Tuchel's 11-wins-from-14 record. Croatia's agei...
Odds: 1.73
Edge: -2.8%
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
Draw / England Croatia are awkward, defensively organised and keep games tight, so a goalless or 0-0 first half is plausible before England's depth tells l...
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
England England arrive in flawless form with eight qualifying wins, 22 goals scored and none conceded, and have won 11 of 14 under Tuchel. Croatia's...
Odds: 1.85
Edge: +0.9%
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
|
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|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Claude Opus 4.6 hasn't run on this match yet.
Unlock this model →
|
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|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
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|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Claude Opus 4.8 hasn't run on this match yet.
Unlock this model →
|
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|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
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|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
55%
No
~1.79
L
|
20%
1-0
L
|
60%
Under
~1.70
L
|
40%
England
~2.45
W
|
55%
Croatia +1
~1.90
L
|
28%
Draw / England |
58%
England
~1.76
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
No While Croatia are capable of scoring — as evidenced by their tournament pedigree — England's defence has shown solidity in recent major tour...
Odds: 1.79
Edge: -0.9%
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
20%
1-0 A 1-0 England win is the single most probable scoreline given the tight, defensive nature expected of this fixture and England's status as f...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
Under The England vs Croatia rivalry has historically produced tight, low-scoring affairs in major tournaments — their Euro 2020 final ended 1-1,...
Odds: 1.70
Edge: +1.2%
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
England England winning by 2 or more goals is less likely given Croatia's defensive discipline and tournament experience. The -1 spread for England...
Odds: 2.45
Edge: -0.8%
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Croatia +1 The Asian Handicap of Croatia +1 offers good value given Croatia's historical resilience against England. If England win by exactly one goal...
Odds: 1.90
Edge: +2.4%
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
Draw / England The most common HT/FT result in major England vs Croatia encounters has been tight first halves with the outcome decided later. England tend...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
England England enter this 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage match as clear favourites, with a squad boasting significant quality across all positions...
Odds: 1.76
Edge: +1.2%
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|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
55%
No
~1.79
L
|
24%
1-0
L
|
58%
Under
~1.70
L
|
51%
England -1
~2.12
W
|
56%
England -0.75
~1.66
W
|
38%
England / England |
62%
England
~1.76
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
No While both teams are capable of scoring, Croatia's conservative defensive setup in tournaments and England's likelihood to sit deeper after...
Odds: 1.79
Edge: -0.9%
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
24%
1-0 England 1-0 is the modal outcome: England wins narrowly, reflecting their slight edge without a second goal. 1-1 draws are common in tournam...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Under Bookmakers price Under 2.5 at ~1.71 and Over at ~2.15, implying a slight lean toward lower-scoring matches. Both England and Croatia have sh...
Odds: 1.70
Edge: -0.8%
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
England -1 England -1 is priced at 2.45, meaning a break-even expectation implies roughly 41% probability. Given England is the favourite outright and...
Odds: 2.12
Edge: +3.8%
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
56%
England -0.75 Asian handicap at -0.75/+0.75 (priced 1.99 and 1.96) is the most balanced spread. England -0.75 wins if England wins by 1+ or draws; Croatia...
Odds: 1.66
Edge: -4.2%
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
38%
England / England England leading at half-time and full-time is the single most likely scoreline path given England's favourite status. However, draw-to-Engla...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
England England is the clear favourite in group-stage odds (1.76), reflecting their stronger recent trajectory and squad depth. Croatia has made two...
Odds: 1.76
Edge: +5.2%
|
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
56%
No
~1.84
L
|
19%
1-0
L
|
59%
Under 2.5
~1.84
L
|
62%
Croatia +1
~1.81
L
|
53%
England -0.25
~1.73
W
|
26%
Draw / England |
53%
England
~1.85
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
56%
No England posted back-to-back clean sheets in Florida and Croatia's attack has been inconsistent against top opposition. With England slight c...
Odds: 1.84
Edge: +1.6%
🔍 researched
14 sources cited
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
19%
1-0 England to edge a low‑event game fits both teams' recent trajectories and the market's under lean. A single‑goal margin is most plausible, w...
🔍 researched
14 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
59%
Under 2.5 England's recent friendlies finished 1-0 and 3-0, and Croatia tend to keep World Cup group games tight, with a conservative midfield core. M...
Odds: 1.84
Edge: +4.7%
🔍 researched
14 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
62%
Croatia +1 While England are rightful favorites, Croatia's tournament nous and compact shape reduce blowout risk, and many England wins profile as by a...
Odds: 1.81
Edge: +6.8%
🔍 researched
14 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
53%
England -0.25 England's overall edge in recent form and squad quality warrants a slight Asian lean while respecting Croatia's resilience. The -0.25 splits...
Odds: 1.73
Edge: -4.8%
🔍 researched
14 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
26%
Draw / England A cautious opening half is likely before England's depth and set‑piece threat tilt the second half. Croatia are adept at disrupting rhythm e...
🔍 researched
14 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
England England arrive with two clean-sheet tune-ups and a perfect qualifying campaign, while Croatia's recent form has been mixed with a loss to Be...
Odds: 1.85
Edge: -1.1%
🔍 researched
14 sources cited
|
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
60%
No
~1.79
L
|
28%
1-0
L
|
60%
Under
~1.70
L
|
62%
Croatia
~3.57
L
|
60%
England
~3.57
|
36%
Draw / England |
65%
England
~1.76
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
No Given the expectation of a tight, low-scoring opener (see totals_2.5 pick) and England's ability to control games without conceding in recen...
Odds: 1.79
Edge: +4.1%
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
28%
1-0 Given the factors above (cautious opener, England slight favourites, Croatia resilient), the modal specific score is a narrow 1-0 England wi...
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
Under Opening group games at major tournaments tend to be cautious and low-scoring; bookmakers already favour Under 2.5. Both teams have tournamen...
Odds: 1.70
Edge: +1.2%
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
62%
Croatia England are favorites but covering a -1 (winning by 2+) against a resilient Croatia is a stretch; Croatia routinely makes games tight and ha...
Odds: 3.57
Edge: +34.0%
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
60%
England A straight-win Asian line for England (-0.5) is reasonable given their form, squad depth and stronger attacking personnel; Asian -0.5 simply...
Odds: 3.57
Edge: +32.0%
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
36%
Draw / England Openers often start cagey: a first-half draw (0-0 or 0-0/1-1) then one side (England) breaks through later is the common tournament pattern....
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
65%
England England are the clear market favourites and arrive with two comfortable warm-up wins (1-0 v New Zealand, 3-0 v Costa Rica) and apparent squa...
Odds: 1.76
Edge: +8.2%
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
56%
No
~1.79
L
|
14%
1-0
L
|
58%
Under
~1.70
L
|
52%
England
~2.45
W
|
54%
England -0.5
~1.66
W
|
50%
England / England |
58%
England
~1.76
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
56%
No England's defense has been solid, and Croatia's attack may find it challenging to break through. The match is expected to be closely contest...
Odds: 1.79
Edge: +0.1%
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
14%
1-0 A narrow 1-0 victory for England is anticipated, reflecting their strong defensive record and Croatia's challenges in attack. ([squawka.com]...
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Under Both teams have strong defensive records, and recent encounters have been low-scoring. England's tactical approach under Thomas Tuchel empha...
Odds: 1.70
Edge: -0.8%
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
England England's superior squad depth and recent form suggest they can win by at least one goal. The match is expected to be competitive, but Engla...
Odds: 2.45
Edge: +11.2%
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
54%
England -0.5 England's attacking prowess and Croatia's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a narrow victory for England. The Asian handicap of -0.5 reflect...
Odds: 1.66
Edge: -6.2%
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
50%
England / England England is expected to take the lead early and maintain it throughout the match, capitalizing on their superior squad and tactical approach....
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
England England's squad depth and recent form make them favorites against Croatia. They have won four of the last six meetings between the nations,...
Odds: 1.76
Edge: +1.2%
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
|
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|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
o4-mini hasn't run on this match yet.
Unlock this model →
|
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|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
55%
No
~1.84
L
|
18%
2-0
L
|
53%
Under
~1.74
L
|
51%
England
~2.45
W
|
58%
England -0.5
~1.73
W
|
34%
England / England |
58%
England
~1.85
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
No England's organized defense limits clear chances for Croatia while England may not always convert dominance into multiple goals against comp...
Odds: 1.84
Edge: +0.7%
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
18%
2-0 Training data through 2025 shows England frequently win 2-0 or 2-1 against mid-tier European sides in tournament play. Low scoring patterns...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Under Both teams tend to be cautious in major tournament openers. Croatia often sits deep and England can struggle to break low blocks early, poin...
Odds: 1.74
Edge: -4.5%
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
England England are expected to win but the margin is often tight in opening World Cup games. The -1 spread is close to a pick em after vig.
Odds: 2.45
Edge: +10.2%
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
58%
England -0.5 Matches the core moneyline lean toward England. Asian line removes the draw outcome and still favors the higher quality side.
Odds: 1.73
Edge: +0.2%
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
34%
England / England England likely establish control after half time once they break down Croatia. Full time England win with half time lead is the single most...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
England England enter as clear favorites with superior squad depth and recent tournament pedigree compared to an aging Croatia side. Historical head...
Odds: 1.85
Edge: +4.0%
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
58%
No
~1.79
L
|
18%
2-0
L
|
53%
Under
~1.70
L
|
51%
England
~2.45
W
|
56%
England -0.5
~1.66
W
|
38%
England / England |
56%
England
~1.76
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
58%
No England keep clean sheets in 55% of matches against mid-tier European sides. Croatia's attack has slowed and rarely scores first away from h...
Odds: 1.79
Edge: +2.1%
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
18%
2-0 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline when England face organized but limited attacks in tournament play. Low-scoring wins dominate their...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Under World Cup group-stage matches between these teams tend to be cagey. England control possession but lack clinical finishing against compact d...
Odds: 1.70
Edge: -5.8%
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
England England are expected to win by two goals or more given the quality gap. Bookmaker consensus prices England -1 around 2.45, implying roughly...
Odds: 2.45
Edge: +10.2%
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
56%
England -0.5 Asian handicap -0.5 aligns with the outright moneyline favorite status. England have covered this line in 60% of home World Cup qualifiers i...
Odds: 1.66
Edge: -4.2%
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
38%
England / England England typically take control after the break. Leading at half-time and full-time is the most probable sequence given their second-half dom...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
56%
England England are the stronger side with superior squad depth and recent results against similar opposition. Croatia have aged since their 2018-20...
Odds: 1.76
Edge: -0.8%
|
||||||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
55%
No
~1.84
L
|
20%
1-0
L
|
60%
Under
~1.74
L
|
60%
Croatia
~3.31
L
|
52%
Croatia
~3.31
|
22%
Draw / England |
55%
England
~1.85
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
No England's qualifying campaign featured zero goals conceded, reflecting Thomas Tuchel's intense focus on defensive solidity. Croatia's aging...
Odds: 1.84
Edge: +0.7%
4 sources cited
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
20%
1-0 A 1-0 victory aligns perfectly with England's recent tactical setups, mirroring their narrow friendly win over New Zealand just weeks prior....
4 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
Under Opening games at major tournaments are notoriously cagey, and both teams know a point is highly valuable in a group where third place can of...
Odds: 1.74
Edge: +2.5%
4 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
Croatia Croatia is a perennial tournament team that rarely gets blown out, anchored by Josko Gvardiol at the back and the ever-reliable Luka Modric...
Odds: 3.31
Edge: +29.8%
4 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
52%
Croatia The Asian Handicap of +0.75 for Croatia requires England to win by two clear goals to secure a full payout on the favorites. Given the high...
Odds: 3.31
Edge: +21.8%
4 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
22%
Draw / England The first half should be highly cautious as both teams settle into the tournament, making a halftime draw the most logical starting point. H...
4 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
England While an opening match stalemate would suit both nations, England boasts a significant talent advantage across the pitch. Thomas Tuchel has...
Odds: 1.85
Edge: +0.9%
4 sources cited
|
||||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
53%
No
~1.84
L
|
18%
1-0
L
|
60%
Under
~1.74
L
|
65%
Croatia
~3.31
L
|
51%
England
~3.31
|
35%
England / England |
55%
England
~1.85
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
53%
No This prediction aligns with a low-scoring game where one team likely keeps a clean sheet. England's perfect defensive record in qualifying i...
Odds: 1.84
Edge: -1.4%
6 sources cited
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
18%
1-0 This scoreline combines all the key predictions: a narrow England win, under 2.5 total goals, and a clean sheet for the Three Lions. It refl...
6 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
Under World Cup opening games between two strong European sides are often tense and low-scoring. Croatia are known for keeping games tight and wil...
Odds: 1.74
Edge: +2.5%
6 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
65%
Croatia Even if England wins, a victory by more than one goal seems unlikely given Croatia's resilience and tactical discipline. The Croatians rarel...
Odds: 3.31
Edge: +34.8%
6 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
51%
England Assuming a common handicap of -0.75 for England, this pick aligns with the predicted narrow England victory. A one-goal win for England woul...
Odds: 3.31
Edge: +20.8%
6 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
England / England England will likely look to start with high intensity to press Croatia's aging midfield. An early goal would allow them to control the game'...
6 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
England England enters this match with a deeper, younger squad and a perfect qualifying record. While Croatia's tournament experience is formidable,...
Odds: 1.85
Edge: +0.9%
6 sources cited
|
||||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
55%
No
~1.79
L
|
18%
1-0
L
|
58%
Under 2.5
~1.84
L
|
65%
Croatia +1
~1.90
L
|
55%
Croatia +0.75
~2.52
L
|
28%
Draw / England |
55%
England
~1.76
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
No Given the expectation of a low-scoring game, it's likely that one team will fail to find the back of the net. England's defense is usually r...
Odds: 1.79
Edge: -0.9%
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
18%
1-0 Consistent with expectations of a low-scoring match where England ultimately triumphs, a 1-0 scoreline is highly plausible. Croatia's strong...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Under 2.5 World Cup group stage matches between two well-structured teams like England and Croatia often become tactical battles. Both teams possess s...
Odds: 1.84
Edge: +3.6%
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
65%
Croatia +1 Croatia's exceptional tournament mentality and defensive discipline make it very difficult for opponents to beat them by a wide margin. Even...
Odds: 1.90
Edge: +12.4%
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Croatia +0.75 Drawing on historical data up to September 2025, Croatia are known for their ability to compete fiercely and avoid heavy defeats against str...
Odds: 2.52
Edge: +15.3%
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
Draw / England Based on my training data up to September 2025, top-tier World Cup group matches often start cautiously, leading to a half-time draw. Englan...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
England Based on general training data through September 2025, England are consistently strong contenders in major tournaments. While Croatia are kn...
Odds: 1.76
Edge: -1.8%
|
||||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
58%
no
~1.79
L
|
20%
2-1
L
|
55%
under
~1.70
L
|
55%
England
~2.45
W
|
60%
home_ -0.5
~6.13
|
45%
England / England |
60%
England
~1.76
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
58%
no England's defense has been relatively strong, and Croatia's attacking output can be inconsistent. It's likely one team will keep a clean she...
Odds: 1.79
Edge: +2.1%
3 sources cited
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
20%
2-1 England is predicted to win, but Croatia is capable of scoring. A 2-1 scoreline reflects England's superiority while acknowledging Croatia's...
3 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
under Both teams have shown defensive solidity in recent matches. While England can score, Croatia tends to play a more measured game, suggesting...
Odds: 1.70
Edge: -3.8%
3 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
England England is favored to win this match. A -1 handicap means England needs to win by at least two goals for this bet to cash. Given England's a...
Odds: 2.45
Edge: +14.2%
3 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
60%
home_ -0.5 England is the favorite and playing at home, they should be able to secure at least a one-goal margin of victory. The odds for England -0.5...
Odds: 6.13
Edge: +43.7%
3 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
45%
England / England England is expected to start strong and maintain their dominance throughout the match. This implies they will likely lead at halftime and go...
3 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
England England is the stronger team on paper and has a slight edge in recent form. While Croatia is a capable side, England's overall squad depth a...
Odds: 1.76
Edge: +3.2%
3 sources cited
|
||||||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
51%
No
~1.79
L
|
12%
1-0
L
|
53%
Under
~1.70
L
|
48%
Croatia
~3.57
L
|
48%
Croatia +1.0
~1.90
L
|
18%
Draw / England |
55%
England
~1.76
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
51%
No Both sides are disciplined defensively; recent head-to-heads have often seen one team shut out. With key attackers potentially missing due t...
Odds: 1.79
Edge: -4.9%
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
12%
1-0 A narrow England win is the most likely outcome given the team strengths and defensive nature of tournament openers. 1-0 and 1-1 are the mos...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Under Both teams have strong defenses and matches between them tend to be tight. Recent matches for both have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of last 5....
Odds: 1.70
Edge: -5.8%
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Croatia England winning by more than 1 goal is not the most likely scenario given Croatia's resilience. England have only won by a 2+ goal margin in...
Odds: 3.57
Edge: +20.0%
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
48%
Croatia +1.0 Asian handicap -1 for England means they need to win by 2 for a full win. Given Croatia's ability to keep it close, backing Croatia +1 offer...
Odds: 1.90
Edge: -4.6%
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
18%
Draw / England Matches between these sides often start cautiously, with England likely to push in the second half. The most probable full-time result is En...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
England England have a stronger squad on paper and home advantage, but Croatia are a resilient tournament side. Based on recent form and head-to-hea...
Odds: 1.76
Edge: -1.8%
|
||||||||
Both teams to score
ConsensusNo 12/13
Claude Opus 4.7
60%
No
~1.84
L
England have not conceded in their qualifying campaign and are on a 10-match competitive clean sheet streak with Stones-Konsa likely in cent...
Claude Sonnet 4.6
55%
No
~1.79
L
While Croatia are capable of scoring — as evidenced by their tournament pedigree — England's defence has shown solidity in recent major tour...
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
No
~1.79
L
While both teams are capable of scoring, Croatia's conservative defensive setup in tournaments and England's likelihood to sit deeper after...
GPT-5
56%
No
~1.84
L
England posted back-to-back clean sheets in Florida and Croatia's attack has been inconsistent against top opposition. With England slight c...
GPT-5 Mini
60%
No
~1.79
L
Given the expectation of a tight, low-scoring opener (see totals_2.5 pick) and England's ability to control games without conceding in recen...
GPT-4o Mini
56%
No
~1.79
L
England's defense has been solid, and Croatia's attack may find it challenging to break through. The match is expected to be closely contest...
Grok 4.3
55%
No
~1.84
L
England's organized defense limits clear chances for Croatia while England may not always convert dominance into multiple goals against comp...
Grok 4 Fast
58%
No
~1.79
L
England keep clean sheets in 55% of matches against mid-tier European sides. Croatia's attack has slowed and rarely scores first away from h...
Gemini 3.1 Pro
55%
No
~1.84
L
England's qualifying campaign featured zero goals conceded, reflecting Thomas Tuchel's intense focus on defensive solidity. Croatia's aging...
Gemini 2.5 Pro
53%
No
~1.84
L
This prediction aligns with a low-scoring game where one team likely keeps a clean sheet. England's perfect defensive record in qualifying i...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
No
~1.79
L
Given the expectation of a low-scoring game, it's likely that one team will fail to find the back of the net. England's defense is usually r...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
58%
no
~1.79
L
England's defense has been relatively strong, and Croatia's attacking output can be inconsistent. It's likely one team will keep a clean she...
DeepSeek V3
51%
No
~1.79
L
Both sides are disciplined defensively; recent head-to-heads have often seen one team shut out. With key attackers potentially missing due t...
Correct score
Consensus1-0 10/13
Claude Opus 4.7
16%
1-0
L
A controlled 1-0 fits the narrative of an England side dominating possession against a deep, organised Croatia back three and grinding out a...
Claude Sonnet 4.6
20%
1-0
L
A 1-0 England win is the single most probable scoreline given the tight, defensive nature expected of this fixture and England's status as f...
Claude Haiku 4.5
24%
1-0
L
England 1-0 is the modal outcome: England wins narrowly, reflecting their slight edge without a second goal. 1-1 draws are common in tournam...
GPT-5
19%
1-0
L
England to edge a low‑event game fits both teams' recent trajectories and the market's under lean. A single‑goal margin is most plausible, w...
GPT-5 Mini
28%
1-0
L
Given the factors above (cautious opener, England slight favourites, Croatia resilient), the modal specific score is a narrow 1-0 England wi...
GPT-4o Mini
14%
1-0
L
A narrow 1-0 victory for England is anticipated, reflecting their strong defensive record and Croatia's challenges in attack. ([squawka.com]...
Grok 4.3
18%
2-0
L
Training data through 2025 shows England frequently win 2-0 or 2-1 against mid-tier European sides in tournament play. Low scoring patterns...
Grok 4 Fast
18%
2-0
L
2-0 is the single most likely scoreline when England face organized but limited attacks in tournament play. Low-scoring wins dominate their...
Gemini 3.1 Pro
20%
1-0
L
A 1-0 victory aligns perfectly with England's recent tactical setups, mirroring their narrow friendly win over New Zealand just weeks prior....
Gemini 2.5 Pro
18%
1-0
L
This scoreline combines all the key predictions: a narrow England win, under 2.5 total goals, and a clean sheet for the Three Lions. It refl...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
18%
1-0
L
Consistent with expectations of a low-scoring match where England ultimately triumphs, a 1-0 scoreline is highly plausible. Croatia's strong...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
20%
2-1
L
England is predicted to win, but Croatia is capable of scoring. A 2-1 scoreline reflects England's superiority while acknowledging Croatia's...
DeepSeek V3
12%
1-0
L
A narrow England win is the most likely outcome given the team strengths and defensive nature of tournament openers. 1-0 and 1-1 are the mos...
Over / Under
ConsensusUnder 10/13
Claude Opus 4.7
58%
Under
~1.74
L
Croatia keep games tight and rarely beat themselves, while England's last six have largely gone Under and BTTS failed in 9 of 10. England's...
Claude Sonnet 4.6
60%
Under
~1.70
L
The England vs Croatia rivalry has historically produced tight, low-scoring affairs in major tournaments — their Euro 2020 final ended 1-1,...
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Under
~1.70
L
Bookmakers price Under 2.5 at ~1.71 and Over at ~2.15, implying a slight lean toward lower-scoring matches. Both England and Croatia have sh...
GPT-5
59%
Under 2.5
~1.84
L
England's recent friendlies finished 1-0 and 3-0, and Croatia tend to keep World Cup group games tight, with a conservative midfield core. M...
GPT-5 Mini
60%
Under
~1.70
L
Opening group games at major tournaments tend to be cautious and low-scoring; bookmakers already favour Under 2.5. Both teams have tournamen...
GPT-4o Mini
58%
Under
~1.70
L
Both teams have strong defensive records, and recent encounters have been low-scoring. England's tactical approach under Thomas Tuchel empha...
Grok 4.3
53%
Under
~1.74
L
Both teams tend to be cautious in major tournament openers. Croatia often sits deep and England can struggle to break low blocks early, poin...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Under
~1.70
L
World Cup group-stage matches between these teams tend to be cagey. England control possession but lack clinical finishing against compact d...
Gemini 3.1 Pro
60%
Under
~1.74
L
Opening games at major tournaments are notoriously cagey, and both teams know a point is highly valuable in a group where third place can of...
Gemini 2.5 Pro
60%
Under
~1.74
L
World Cup opening games between two strong European sides are often tense and low-scoring. Croatia are known for keeping games tight and wil...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
Under 2.5
~1.84
L
World Cup group stage matches between two well-structured teams like England and Croatia often become tactical battles. Both teams possess s...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
under
~1.70
L
Both teams have shown defensive solidity in recent matches. While England can score, Croatia tends to play a more measured game, suggesting...
DeepSeek V3
53%
Under
~1.70
L
Both teams have strong defenses and matches between them tend to be tight. Recent matches for both have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of last 5....
Bookmaker line: 2.5 · Over 47%
Spread
ConsensusEngland 5/13
Claude Opus 4.7
62%
Croatia +1
~1.81
L
Croatia rarely lose by multiple goals at major tournaments and only conceded four goals across qualifying. England are favored but tournamen...
Claude Sonnet 4.6
40%
England
~2.45
W
England winning by 2 or more goals is less likely given Croatia's defensive discipline and tournament experience. The -1 spread for England...
Claude Haiku 4.5
51%
England -1
~2.12
W
England -1 is priced at 2.45, meaning a break-even expectation implies roughly 41% probability. Given England is the favourite outright and...
GPT-5
62%
Croatia +1
~1.81
L
While England are rightful favorites, Croatia's tournament nous and compact shape reduce blowout risk, and many England wins profile as by a...
GPT-5 Mini
62%
Croatia
~3.57
L
England are favorites but covering a -1 (winning by 2+) against a resilient Croatia is a stretch; Croatia routinely makes games tight and ha...
GPT-4o Mini
52%
England
~2.45
W
England's superior squad depth and recent form suggest they can win by at least one goal. The match is expected to be competitive, but Engla...
Grok 4.3
51%
England
~2.45
W
England are expected to win but the margin is often tight in opening World Cup games. The -1 spread is close to a pick em after vig.
Grok 4 Fast
51%
England
~2.45
W
England are expected to win by two goals or more given the quality gap. Bookmaker consensus prices England -1 around 2.45, implying roughly...
Gemini 3.1 Pro
60%
Croatia
~3.31
L
Croatia is a perennial tournament team that rarely gets blown out, anchored by Josko Gvardiol at the back and the ever-reliable Luka Modric...
Gemini 2.5 Pro
65%
Croatia
~3.31
L
Even if England wins, a victory by more than one goal seems unlikely given Croatia's resilience and tactical discipline. The Croatians rarel...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
65%
Croatia +1
~1.90
L
Croatia's exceptional tournament mentality and defensive discipline make it very difficult for opponents to beat them by a wide margin. Even...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
England
~2.45
W
England is favored to win this match. A -1 handicap means England needs to win by at least two goals for this bet to cash. Given England's a...
DeepSeek V3
48%
Croatia
~3.57
L
England winning by more than 1 goal is not the most likely scenario given Croatia's resilience. England have only won by a 2+ goal margin in...
Bookmaker line: England -0.5
Asian handicap
ConsensusEngland -0.5 4/13
Claude Opus 4.7
55%
England -0.5
~1.73
W
Equivalent to backing England on the moneyline, which is supported by their form, depth, and Tuchel's 11-wins-from-14 record. Croatia's agei...
Claude Sonnet 4.6
55%
Croatia +1
~1.90
L
The Asian Handicap of Croatia +1 offers good value given Croatia's historical resilience against England. If England win by exactly one goal...
Claude Haiku 4.5
56%
England -0.75
~1.66
W
Asian handicap at -0.75/+0.75 (priced 1.99 and 1.96) is the most balanced spread. England -0.75 wins if England wins by 1+ or draws; Croatia...
GPT-5
53%
England -0.25
~1.73
W
England's overall edge in recent form and squad quality warrants a slight Asian lean while respecting Croatia's resilience. The -0.25 splits...
GPT-5 Mini
60%
England
~3.57
A straight-win Asian line for England (-0.5) is reasonable given their form, squad depth and stronger attacking personnel; Asian -0.5 simply...
GPT-4o Mini
54%
England -0.5
~1.66
W
England's attacking prowess and Croatia's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a narrow victory for England. The Asian handicap of -0.5 reflect...
Grok 4.3
58%
England -0.5
~1.73
W
Matches the core moneyline lean toward England. Asian line removes the draw outcome and still favors the higher quality side.
Grok 4 Fast
56%
England -0.5
~1.66
W
Asian handicap -0.5 aligns with the outright moneyline favorite status. England have covered this line in 60% of home World Cup qualifiers i...
Gemini 3.1 Pro
52%
Croatia
~3.31
The Asian Handicap of +0.75 for Croatia requires England to win by two clear goals to secure a full payout on the favorites. Given the high...
Gemini 2.5 Pro
51%
England
~3.31
Assuming a common handicap of -0.75 for England, this pick aligns with the predicted narrow England victory. A one-goal win for England woul...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Croatia +0.75
~2.52
L
Drawing on historical data up to September 2025, Croatia are known for their ability to compete fiercely and avoid heavy defeats against str...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
home_ -0.5
~6.13
England is the favorite and playing at home, they should be able to secure at least a one-goal margin of victory. The odds for England -0.5...
DeepSeek V3
48%
Croatia +1.0
~1.90
L
Asian handicap -1 for England means they need to win by 2 for a full win. Given Croatia's ability to keep it close, backing Croatia +1 offer...
Half-time / Full-time
ConsensusDraw / England 7/13
Claude Opus 4.7
28%
Draw / England
Croatia are awkward, defensively organised and keep games tight, so a goalless or 0-0 first half is plausible before England's depth tells l...
Claude Sonnet 4.6
28%
Draw / England
The most common HT/FT result in major England vs Croatia encounters has been tight first halves with the outcome decided later. England tend...
Claude Haiku 4.5
38%
England / England
England leading at half-time and full-time is the single most likely scoreline path given England's favourite status. However, draw-to-Engla...
GPT-5
26%
Draw / England
A cautious opening half is likely before England's depth and set‑piece threat tilt the second half. Croatia are adept at disrupting rhythm e...
GPT-5 Mini
36%
Draw / England
Openers often start cagey: a first-half draw (0-0 or 0-0/1-1) then one side (England) breaks through later is the common tournament pattern....
GPT-4o Mini
50%
England / England
England is expected to take the lead early and maintain it throughout the match, capitalizing on their superior squad and tactical approach....
Grok 4.3
34%
England / England
England likely establish control after half time once they break down Croatia. Full time England win with half time lead is the single most...
Grok 4 Fast
38%
England / England
England typically take control after the break. Leading at half-time and full-time is the most probable sequence given their second-half dom...
Gemini 3.1 Pro
22%
Draw / England
The first half should be highly cautious as both teams settle into the tournament, making a halftime draw the most logical starting point. H...
Gemini 2.5 Pro
35%
England / England
England will likely look to start with high intensity to press Croatia's aging midfield. An early goal would allow them to control the game'...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
28%
Draw / England
Based on my training data up to September 2025, top-tier World Cup group matches often start cautiously, leading to a half-time draw. Englan...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
45%
England / England
England is expected to start strong and maintain their dominance throughout the match. This implies they will likely lead at halftime and go...
DeepSeek V3
18%
Draw / England
Matches between these sides often start cautiously, with England likely to push in the second half. The most probable full-time result is En...
Match winner
ConsensusEngland 13/13
Claude Opus 4.7
55%
England
~1.85
W
England arrive in flawless form with eight qualifying wins, 22 goals scored and none conceded, and have won 11 of 14 under Tuchel. Croatia's...
Claude Sonnet 4.6
58%
England
~1.76
W
England enter this 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage match as clear favourites, with a squad boasting significant quality across all positions...
Claude Haiku 4.5
62%
England
~1.76
W
England is the clear favourite in group-stage odds (1.76), reflecting their stronger recent trajectory and squad depth. Croatia has made two...
GPT-5
53%
England
~1.85
W
England arrive with two clean-sheet tune-ups and a perfect qualifying campaign, while Croatia's recent form has been mixed with a loss to Be...
GPT-5 Mini
65%
England
~1.76
W
England are the clear market favourites and arrive with two comfortable warm-up wins (1-0 v New Zealand, 3-0 v Costa Rica) and apparent squa...
GPT-4o Mini
58%
England
~1.76
W
England's squad depth and recent form make them favorites against Croatia. They have won four of the last six meetings between the nations,...
Grok 4.3
58%
England
~1.85
W
England enter as clear favorites with superior squad depth and recent tournament pedigree compared to an aging Croatia side. Historical head...
Grok 4 Fast
56%
England
~1.76
W
England are the stronger side with superior squad depth and recent results against similar opposition. Croatia have aged since their 2018-20...
Gemini 3.1 Pro
55%
England
~1.85
W
While an opening match stalemate would suit both nations, England boasts a significant talent advantage across the pitch. Thomas Tuchel has...
Gemini 2.5 Pro
55%
England
~1.85
W
England enters this match with a deeper, younger squad and a perfect qualifying record. While Croatia's tournament experience is formidable,...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
England
~1.76
W
Based on general training data through September 2025, England are consistently strong contenders in major tournaments. While Croatia are kn...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
England
~1.76
W
England is the stronger team on paper and has a slight edge in recent form. While Croatia is a capable side, England's overall squad depth a...
DeepSeek V3
55%
England
~1.76
W
England have a stronger squad on paper and home advantage, but Croatia are a resilient tournament side. Based on recent form and head-to-hea...
Bookmaker line: England 57%
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini
England
Claude Haiku 4.5
England
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
England
Claude Sonnet 4.6
England
GPT-4o Mini
England
Grok 4.3
England
Grok 4 Fast
England
Claude Opus 4.7
England
Gemini 3.1 Pro
England
Gemini 2.5 Pro
England
Gemini 2.5 Flash
England
DeepSeek V3
England
GPT-5
England
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Beat the AIs · Predict the score
Picks closed
Match has already kicked off. Picks are permanent — no late entries.
Team news
ProInjuries and confirmed lineups — the same team news the AIs factored into their reads.
Team news is a Pro feature
see exactly who's out and the XIs the AIs reasoned on, before kickoff.
Bookmaker odds
50 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | England | Draw | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.96 |
| Draftkings | 1.71 | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| Fanduel | 1.69 | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| Betmgm | 1.74 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Betfair Exchange UK | 1.76 | 3.95 | 5.40 |
| Betfair Exchange EU | 1.76 | 3.95 | 5.40 |
| Betanysports | 1.74 | 3.85 | 4.85 |
| Betclic FR | 1.70 | 3.83 | 5.00 |
| Betfred | 1.73 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| BetOnline | 1.74 | 3.86 | 5.00 |
| Betrivers | 1.68 | 3.75 | 5.30 |
| Betsson | 1.75 | 3.65 | 5.35 |
| Betus | 1.74 | 3.85 | 4.85 |
| Betvictor | 1.70 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Betway | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Bovada | 1.71 | 3.80 | 4.85 |
| Boylesports | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Casumo | 1.68 | 3.75 | 5.30 |
| Codere It | 1.74 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
| Coolbet | 1.75 | 3.75 | 5.25 |
| Coral | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Everygame | 1.70 | 3.85 | 5.00 |
| Fanatics | 1.71 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.66 | 3.65 | 5.20 |
| Gtbets | 1.71 | 3.88 | 4.81 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Leovegas | 1.68 | 3.75 | 5.30 |
| Leovegas Se | 1.68 | 3.75 | 5.30 |
| Livescorebet | 1.65 | 3.65 | 5.10 |
| LowVig | 1.74 | 3.86 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.82 | 4.95 |
| Matchbook | 1.76 | 3.95 | 5.40 |
| MyBookie | 1.72 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| Nordicbet | 1.75 | 3.65 | 5.35 |
| Onexbet | 1.76 | 3.88 | 5.02 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Pmu | 1.65 | 3.65 | 5.10 |
| Skybet | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Smarkets | 1.75 | 3.90 | 5.40 |
| Sport888 | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Tipico | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Unibet | 1.70 | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| Unibet Nl | 1.70 | 3.85 | 5.50 |
| Unibet Se | 1.70 | 3.85 | 5.50 |
| Unibet | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| Virginbet | 1.65 | 3.65 | 5.10 |
| Williamhill | 1.70 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| Winamax | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.50 |
| Winamax | 1.68 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.3 | 1.93 | 1.96 |
| Betmgm | 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.74 |
| William Hill | 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.70 |
| Betanysports | 2.3 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| BetOnline | 2.5 | 2.21 | 1.73 |
| Betrivers | 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.74 |
| Betsson | 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.70 |
| Betus | 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.74 |
| Bovada | 2.3 | 1.89 | 1.93 |
| Casumo | 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.74 |
| Codere It | 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.66 |
| Coolbet | 2.5 | 2.12 | 1.73 |
| Grosvenor | 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.74 |
| Gtbets | 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.71 |
| Leovegas | 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.74 |
| LowVig | 2.5 | 2.21 | 1.73 |
| Matchbook | 2.5 | 2.26 | 1.77 |
| MyBookie | 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.69 |
| Nordicbet | 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.70 |
| Onexbet | 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.72 |
| Pmu | 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
| Unibet Nl | 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.74 |
| Unibet Se | 2.5 | 2.08 | 1.77 |
| Book | England | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | -0.8 @ 1.97 | +0.8 @ 1.93 |
| Betanysports | -0.5 @ 1.74 | +0.5 @ 2.16 |
| BetOnline | -1.0 @ 2.45 | +1.0 @ 1.61 |
| Betus | -0.5 @ 1.74 | +0.5 @ 2.16 |
| Bovada | -0.8 @ 1.93 | +0.8 @ 1.89 |
| Gtbets | -0.5 @ 1.70 | +0.5 @ 2.12 |
| LowVig | -1.0 @ 2.45 | +1.0 @ 1.61 |
| Matchbook | -0.8 @ 1.99 | +0.8 @ 1.96 |
| MyBookie | -0.5 @ 1.68 | +0.5 @ 2.06 |
| Onexbet | -1.5 @ 3.13 | +1.5 @ 1.37 |
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
9636776bed70ce7e…
- Kickoff
- Wed, Jun 17 · 20:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time · Correct score
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 7. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 7, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 372,
"sport": "football",
"venue": null,
"league": "FIFA World Cup",
"starts_at": "2026-06-17T20:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Wed, 17 Jun 2026 20:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Croatia",
"home": "England"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-15T06:55:50+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"away": 5.5,
"draw": 3.95,
"home": 1.76
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
"extra_markets": {
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.86,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.85,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.85,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.95,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.76,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.4,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.8,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.75,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.75,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.8,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.85,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.85,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.88,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.76,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.02,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.83,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.75,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.35,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.9,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.67,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.88,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.81,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.75,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.35,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.75,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.68,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.3,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.85,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.5,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.75,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.68,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.4,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.8,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.9,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.7,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.72,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.8,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.75,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.1,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.9,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.75,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.4,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.86,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5,
"outcome": "Croatia"
}
],
"totals": [
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.21,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.15,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.66,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 3,
"price": 1.38,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 3,
"price": 3,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.72,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.15,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.2,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.69,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.73,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.21,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.77,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.08,
"outcome": "Over"
}
],
"h2h_lay": [
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.78,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.5,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.78,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.6,
"outcome": "Croatia"
}
],
"spreads": [
{
"point": -1,
"price": 2.45,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": 1,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": -0.5,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": 0.5,
"price": 2.16,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": -0.75,
"price": 1.99,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": 0.75,
"price": 1.96,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": -0.5,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": 0.5,
"price": 2.16,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"price": 3.13,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.37,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": -0.5,
"price": 1.7,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": 0.5,
"price": 2.12,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": -0.5,
"price": 1.68,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": 0.5,
"price": 2.06,
"outcome": "Croatia"
},
{
"point": -1,
"price": 2.45,
"outcome": "England"
},
{
"point": 1,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Croatia"
}
]
}
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft",
"correct_score"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 3 sources
3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
84 tool calls · 8 sources
8 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 6 sources
6 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 4 sources
4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
105 tool calls · 14 sources
14 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
7 tool calls · 7 sources
7 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
7 tool calls · 5 sources
5 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
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