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MLB Bundesliga
Final 11–1
Dornbirn logo

DornbirnvsHard Bulls

Hard Bulls logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final11–1 Locked 26picks · 13 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Dornbirn 11–1 Hard Bulls

4 of 6 AIs leaned Dornbirn — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Dornbirn 4/6
Correct calls
4/6
Final
11–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Dornbirn 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Dornbirn W

Both teams are Austrian baseball clubs competing in what appears to be an Austrian regional or summer league. Without access to current 2026...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Dornbirn W

Dornbirn plays at home with typical Bundesliga home-field edge. Training data through 2025-09 shows Austrian clubs rarely dominate road game...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Hard Bulls L

Based on general knowledge from my training data through 2025-09, the Hard Bulls have historically been one of the stronger teams in the Aus...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Hard Bulls L

Based on my training data, the Hard Bulls are generally a stronger team in this league. While specific recent form is unavailable, historica...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Dornbirn W

Dornbirn has historically been the stronger side in the Australian Baseball League. As home team, they have an advantage. However, lack of r...

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Spread

Consensus
Dornbirn -1 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Dornbirn -1 W

With no current standings or recent form available, the spread of 1 run favors the home team marginally. This reflects typical home-field ad...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Home edge provides narrow spread value. Training data through 2025-09 indicates favorites cover lightly more than half the time in this leag...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Hard Bulls -1.5 L

My training data through 2025-09 indicates that the Hard Bulls typically defeat Dornbirn by more than a single run, reflecting their superio...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Hard Bulls

Given the slight perceived advantage of the Hard Bulls in head-to-head matchups from my training data, they are more likely to cover a small...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Dornbirn -1 W

Dornbirn's home advantage and slightly better form give them a good chance to win by at least 2 runs. The spread is reasonable given the exp...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Dornbirn 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Under 5.5

Early-game scoring in regional Austrian baseball tends to be conservative, with pitchers settling in and defenses tighter in the first few f...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Dornbirn

First-five outcomes track full-game home edge in low-scoring leagues. Training data through 2025-09 shows early leads often held by home sid...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Hard Bulls

Based on my training data through 2025-09, stronger teams in baseball often establish leads early in games due to better starting pitching a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 57% Hard Bulls

The Hard Bulls' historical advantage, even early in the game, suggests they are likely to have a stronger first five innings. This is a cont...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Dornbirn

Early innings often favor the home team with last bat advantage. Dornbirn's historical strength suggests they can lead after 5 innings. Draw...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 9.5

Austrian regional baseball typically features moderate offensive output. Without current pitcher data, defensive stats, or weather condition...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Austrian league games average moderate run totals. Training data through 2025-09 shows slight lean toward overs in early-season matchups. We...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 9.5 W

Drawing from my training data through 2025-09, games involving stronger offensive teams like the Hard Bulls in the Austrian Bundesliga often...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Without specific data on team scoring trends or pitching matchups, predicting the total is difficult. However, general league tendencies and...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 7.5

Baseball generally sees moderate scoring. Historical ABL games average around 8 runs per game. Without specific pitching data, slight lean t...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Hard Bulls

65
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Hard Bulls

60
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Dornbirn

58
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Dornbirn

55
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Dornbirn

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Dornbirn

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: dadc78b3cf511497…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 13 · 11:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2635,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Bundesliga",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T11:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 11:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Hard Bulls",
        "home": "Dornbirn"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T18:37:49+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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