MLB

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Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees

Kickoff · Mon, Jun 22 · 22:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 19 · 05:46 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    6eee60e93c529fe3…

Kickoff: Mon, Jun 22 · 22:10 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5122,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-22T22:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 22 Jun 2026 22:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Yankees",
        "home": "Detroit Tigers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-19T05:46:18+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 42-76 -43.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 38-68 -35.5u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 12-16 -9.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 268-323 -246.5u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 298-369 -308.4u	58% New York Yankees	52% Over 8.5	48% New York Yankees	54% New York Yankees
Match winner ? 58% New York Yankees The Yankees have historically been the stronger franchise with deeper talent, though Detroit has shown competitiveness in recent seasons. Wi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both the Tigers and Yankees have offenses capable of generating runs, and late June weather in Detroit is typically favorable for scoring. W... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% New York Yankees The Yankees' overall roster depth and recent performance history suggest slight edge, but covering a 1.5-run spread on the road in late June... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% New York Yankees The Yankees' offensive approach and lineup depth typically translate to early scoring advantage. The first five innings isolate starting pit... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 6-12 -10.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 107-95 -7.9u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 176-198 -138.6u	65% New York Yankees	55% over	60% New York Yankees	55% New York Yankees
Match winner ? 65% New York Yankees The New York Yankees have a strong recent performance, with a 4-1 record in their last five games, while the Detroit Tigers have struggled,... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent games, with the Yankees averaging 5.5 runs per game and the Tigers averaging 4.2 runs... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 60% New York Yankees The Yankees' superior form and lineup health suggest they are likely to win by at least one run. Their recent performance and head-to-head a... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% New York Yankees The Yankees have been strong in the early innings, often taking an early lead. Their offensive prowess in the first five innings makes them... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 3-7 -4.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 17-22 -9.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 290-317 -200.2u	53% New York Yankees	51% over	52% New York Yankees	51% New York Yankees
Match winner ? 53% New York Yankees Yankees have historically held an edge in talent and payroll depth over Detroit. Tigers showed improvement in 2024-2025 but remain inconsist... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over June MLB games at outdoor venues trend slightly higher scoring. Both offenses have shown power potential in recent seasons. Training data th... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% New York Yankees Yankees maintain superior depth and bullpen strength entering future seasons. Detroit still developing consistency against elite AL East clu... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% New York Yankees Starting pitching matchups in 2025 favored New York early in games. Tigers bullpen and late offense remain areas of inconsistency. Training... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 13-25 -13.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 36-83 -55.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 256-310 -262.4u	62% New York Yankees	53% Over 8.5 runs	51% New York Yankees -1.5	58% New York Yankees
Match winner ? 62% New York Yankees Based on historical performance and general team strength from training data through 2025-09, the New York Yankees are typically a stronger... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Over 8.5 runs Assuming a standard MLB total line of 8.5 runs, the New York Yankees' offensive power often leads to higher-scoring games. While the Tigers... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% New York Yankees -1.5 Given the Yankees' general advantage and the common MLB run line of -1.5, they often win games by more than one run, making this a plausible... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 58% New York Yankees The New York Yankees are expected to establish an early lead due to their stronger overall team composition, particularly in starting pitchi... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 244-329 -236.9u	60% New York Yankees	55% over	58% New York Yankees	56% New York Yankees
Match winner ? 60% New York Yankees The New York Yankees are historically a stronger franchise with a better overall record and more consistent success than the Detroit Tigers.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over MLB games often feature a good number of runs, especially when two teams with capable offenses are involved. Without specific pitching match... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 58% New York Yankees Given the Yankees' historical advantage and general strength, they are more likely to win by a margin greater than or equal to a standard ru... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 56% New York Yankees The Yankees' stronger historical performance suggests they are more likely to be leading after the first five innings. This reflects their g... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 302-355 -215.8u	62% New York Yankees	53% under	40% New York Yankees -1.5	55% New York Yankees
Match winner ? 62% New York Yankees Based on training data through 2025-09, the Yankees have a stronger recent form and deeper roster. The Tigers are improving but lack the off... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% under Comerica Park suppresses home runs and scoring, and Tigers pitching staff can be effective at home. Yankees offense is potent but may face a... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 40% New York Yankees -1.5 Yankees are favorites to win, but covering the run line on the road is difficult. The Tigers are competitive at home and often keep games cl... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% New York Yankees Yankees' starting rotation typically fares well early, and their lineup is deep. Tigers often struggle against lefty starters if Yankees thr... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	New York Yankees 6/6	over 3/6	New York Yankees 4/6	New York Yankees 6/6

Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 6/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 58% New York Yankees

The Yankees have historically been the stronger franchise with deeper talent, though Detroit has shown competitiveness in recent seasons. Wi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 65% New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have a strong recent performance, with a 4-1 record in their last five games, while the Detroit Tigers have struggled,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Yankees

Yankees have historically held an edge in talent and payroll depth over Detroit. Tigers showed improvement in 2024-2025 but remain inconsist...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% New York Yankees

Based on historical performance and general team strength from training data through 2025-09, the New York Yankees are typically a stronger...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% New York Yankees

The New York Yankees are historically a stronger franchise with a better overall record and more consistent success than the Detroit Tigers....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 62% New York Yankees

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Yankees have a stronger recent form and deeper roster. The Tigers are improving but lack the off...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Both the Tigers and Yankees have offenses capable of generating runs, and late June weather in Detroit is typically favorable for scoring. W...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent games, with the Yankees averaging 5.5 runs per game and the Tigers averaging 4.2 runs...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% over

June MLB games at outdoor venues trend slightly higher scoring. Both offenses have shown power potential in recent seasons. Training data th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5 runs

Assuming a standard MLB total line of 8.5 runs, the New York Yankees' offensive power often leads to higher-scoring games. While the Tigers...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

MLB games often feature a good number of runs, especially when two teams with capable offenses are involved. Without specific pitching match...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 53% under

Comerica Park suppresses home runs and scoring, and Tigers pitching staff can be effective at home. Yankees offense is potent but may face a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
New York Yankees 4/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 48% New York Yankees

The Yankees' overall roster depth and recent performance history suggest slight edge, but covering a 1.5-run spread on the road in late June...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees' superior form and lineup health suggest they are likely to win by at least one run. Their recent performance and head-to-head a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 52% New York Yankees

Yankees maintain superior depth and bullpen strength entering future seasons. Detroit still developing consistency against elite AL East clu...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% New York Yankees -1.5

Given the Yankees' general advantage and the common MLB run line of -1.5, they often win games by more than one run, making this a plausible...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% New York Yankees

Given the Yankees' historical advantage and general strength, they are more likely to win by a margin greater than or equal to a standard ru...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 40% New York Yankees -1.5

Yankees are favorites to win, but covering the run line on the road is difficult. The Tigers are competitive at home and often keep games cl...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 6/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 54% New York Yankees

The Yankees' offensive approach and lineup depth typically translate to early scoring advantage. The first five innings isolate starting pit...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees

The Yankees have been strong in the early innings, often taking an early lead. Their offensive prowess in the first five innings makes them...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% New York Yankees

Starting pitching matchups in 2025 favored New York early in games. Tigers bullpen and late offense remain areas of inconsistency. Training...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% New York Yankees

The New York Yankees are expected to establish an early lead due to their stronger overall team composition, particularly in starting pitchi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% New York Yankees

The Yankees' stronger historical performance suggests they are more likely to be leading after the first five innings. This reflects their g...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 55% New York Yankees

Yankees' starting rotation typically fares well early, and their lineup is deep. Tigers often struggle against lefty starters if Yankees thr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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