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MLB
Final 5–7
Detroit Tigers logo

Detroit TigersvsHouston Astros

Houston Astros logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final5–7 Locked 28picks · 15 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Detroit Tigers 5–7 Houston Astros

6 of 7 AIs leaned Houston Astros — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Houston Astros 6/7
Correct calls
6/7
Final
5–7

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Houston Astros W

Houston has been a stronger franchise than Detroit over the past several seasons, with better roster construction and more consistent playof...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Houston Astros W

Probable starting matchup favors Houston: Hunter Brown has been sharp in recent starts while Jack Flaherty has been uneven and was recently...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Houston Astros W

The Houston Astros have demonstrated superior performance metrics compared to the Detroit Tigers in recent seasons, including higher batting...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Houston Astros W

Astros maintain deeper pitching and lineup talent based on historical patterns through 2024. Tigers show improvement but remain less consist...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Houston Astros W

Based on general historical performance from my training data through 2025-09, the Houston Astros typically field a stronger team than the D...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Houston Astros W

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Houston Astros generally have a stronger roster and pitching staff than the Detroit Tigers, givi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Detroit Tigers L

Based on training data through 2025, the Tigers have a slight home-field advantage and improved roster. However, the Astros remain a strong...

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Spread

Consensus
Houston Astros 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Houston Astros -1.5 W

Houston's structural advantages and deeper recent playoff history suggest a slight edge in a neutral setting. A -1.5 spread reflects a modes...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% away_ -1.5

Given the Astros' stronger recent H2H results, the matchup advantage (Brown over Flaherty) and Detroit bullpen vulnerability, Houston has a...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros W

The Astros' superior overall performance and favorable head-to-head record suggest they are likely to win by at least two runs. While the Ti...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Houston Astros

Houston's edge in overall roster quality supports a small road spread lean. Detroit home advantage narrows the margin but does not flip it....

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 45% Houston Astros -1.5 W

Given the Astros' historical strength over the Tigers from my training data through 2025-09, they are more likely to win by multiple runs wh...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Houston Astros

Considering the Astros are typically favored, the spread would likely be in their favor. Even with a moderate spread, their ability to win b...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Detroit Tigers -1.5 L

The run line is risky as games are often close. Detroit's edge is modest, so covering -1.5 is less likely. The push chance is significant.

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Houston Astros 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Houston Astros

Early-inning advantage typically correlates with offensive firepower and starting pitcher quality. Houston's deeper talent historically tran...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Houston Astros

Hunter Brown's recent starts show strong early-inning performance (low ER through 5), while Flaherty has given up early runs in a number of...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Houston Astros

The Astros' offense is expected to start strong, capitalizing on the Tigers' pitching early in the game. The favorable weather conditions an...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Houston Astros

Astros rotation depth historically produces better early-game results. First-five markets amplify starting-pitcher edges over full-game outc...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Houston Astros

The Astros typically feature strong starting pitching and an offense capable of scoring early. Based on general team profiles from my traini...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Houston Astros

The Astros' starting pitchers have historically performed well in the early innings, and their offense is often strong from the start. This...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 34% Draw

First five innings are often tightly contested, especially when starting pitchers are evenly matched. With no clear ace on either side, a ti...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5 W

Both Detroit and Houston have historically fielded offenses capable of run production. Houston's lineup depth typically supports higher-scor...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Over W

Recent games in the series have been high-scoring (8-6, 8-0) and both bullpens have been worked; Flaherty's inconsistent starts and Detroit'...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have potent offenses capable of generating runs. The Astros' lineup, featuring several power hitters, is likely to exploit the Ti...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% under

Typical MLB scoring environments favor unders slightly in inter-league matchups. Both clubs trend toward solid starting pitching depth in re...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Over 8.5 W

Assuming a standard line of 8.5 runs, I lean towards the over, considering the Astros' historically strong offense and the potential for a d...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Training data suggests games involving the Astros often have a moderate to high number of runs due to their potent offense. The Tigers' pitc...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both offenses have been productive in recent seasons, and the starting pitchers are not elite. With no weather concerns, a moderately high-s...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Houston Astros

65
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Houston Astros

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Houston Astros

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Houston Astros

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Houston Astros

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Detroit Tigers

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Houston Astros

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 9cac8c741e9db5ab…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 28 · 17:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7566,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-28T17:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 28 Jun 2026 17:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Houston Astros",
        "home": "Detroit Tigers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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