Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB
Upcoming · in 80h 49m
Detroit Tigers logo

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros

Houston Astros logo

Kickoff · Sat, Jun 27 · 17:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 24 · 05:46 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded
Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 9dd8ad2d732a2237…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 27 · 17:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7037,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-27T17:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 17:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Houston Astros",
        "home": "Detroit Tigers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-24T05:46:05+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Houston Astros

Houston has been the stronger franchise in recent years with consistent playoff appearances and a robust roster, while Detroit is in a rebui...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have demonstrated superior performance in recent seasons compared to the Detroit Tigers, with a higher win percentage and...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Houston Astros

Astros have maintained superior roster construction and pitching depth through 2025. Tigers remain in rebuild phase with inconsistent offens...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Houston Astros

Based on historical performance within my training data (up to early 2023), the Houston Astros have consistently been a top-tier MLB team, w...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are generally a stronger team than the Detroit Tigers based on historical performance within my training data. While spec...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Detroit Tigers

Training data through 2025 September. The Tigers have shown strong home performance and improved pitching depth, while the Astros have been...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Both the Astros and Tigers have offenses capable of generating runs, and June typically sees elevated run-scoring as weather warms. Houston'...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have potent offenses capable of generating runs. The Astros have a strong batting lineup, and the Tigers have shown improvement i...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

June outdoor games trend slightly higher scoring. Both clubs feature lineups capable of multi-run innings. Training data through 2025-09 sho...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

Given the historical offensive capabilities of the Houston Astros and the general scoring environment in MLB, an 8.5 total is frequently sur...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both teams possess offenses that can generate runs, and pitching matchups can be variable. An over bet on a total of 8.5 reflects a common s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both bullpens have been average, and Comerica Park has played neutral this season. The projected starters have moderate ERA, and the lineups...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Houston Astros 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Houston Astros -1.5

Houston's superior roster depth and recent competitive success suggest they edge Detroit by a run or more in a typical matchup. A -1.5 sprea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Astros' superior performance and head-to-head advantage suggest they are likely to win by at least two runs. The Tigers have struggled a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Houston Astros

Houston's bullpen and rotation edges give them a slight edge on the run line. Tigers bullpen has historically been a liability late. Trainin...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Houston Astros -1.5

Historically, the Houston Astros frequently win their games by more than a single run, especially when facing teams that are not considered...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Houston Astros

Given the Astros' slight historical advantage in head-to-head matchups and overall team strength, they are more likely to cover a small spre...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Tigers are slight favorites but winning by multiple runs is less likely. Astros have the experience to keep games close. The -1.5 spread is...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Houston Astros 4/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Houston Astros

Early-inning advantage typically goes to the team with the stronger starting pitcher and leadoff hitter quality. Houston's organizational re...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Houston Astros

The Astros have a strong starting lineup and have been effective in the early innings. Their ability to score early runs gives them an advan...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Houston Astros

Starting pitching matchup favors Astros through the first five. Detroit's early offense has been slow historically. Training data through 20...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have historically demonstrated strong starting pitching and an effective early-game offense, allowing them to often build...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Detroit Tigers

Tigers' starting pitcher has been solid early in games, while Astros' opener has struggled in first innings. Slight edge to Tigers in the fi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

Early game scoring can be influenced by starting pitchers. Without specific starter information, assuming a moderate scoring pace in the fir...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 3 sources

    3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Share this prediction

Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →