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MLB Comerica Park
Upcoming · in 80h 32m
Detroit Tigers logo

Detroit TigersvsCleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Detroit Tigers

Detroit is in strong form (4W-1L in last 5) with a +9 run differential, while Cleveland is struggling (1W-4L, -5 RD). The Tigers play at hom...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Detroit Tigers

Detroit enters this game with stronger recent home form while Cleveland has a clear dip in form over the last five matches; Comerica Park's...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians have shown a strong performance in recent matchups against the Detroit Tigers, winning both encounters in June 2026....

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Detroit Tigers

Detroit enters with superior recent form (4-1) compared to Cleveland's 1-4 skid. Home advantage at Comerica Park and training data through 2...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers are in superior recent form, winning four of their last five games and demonstrating strong offensive and defensive play....

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Cleveland Guardians

The Detroit Tigers have been in significantly better recent form, winning four of their last five games compared to the Guardians' four stra...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cleveland Guardians

Guardians have won both recent head-to-head meetings (3-1 and 3-2 in June), and while form is mixed, they typically have a solid pitching st...

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Over / Under

Consensus
under 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Detroit has scored 25 runs in its last 5 matches (5.0 RPG) and plays at Comerica Park, which slightly favours fly-ball hitters. Cleveland ha...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Over 8.5

Recent team context shows both clubs combining for a high run-count in their last five matches (Guardians conceded 22 in 5; Tigers scored 25...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

The weather forecast for August 13, 2026, indicates warm temperatures and moderate winds, conditions that typically favor higher scoring gam...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% under

Comerica Park tends to suppress scoring. Both teams show moderate run output recently and training data through 2025-09 suggests pitcher's d...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 57% Under 8.5

Comerica Park is widely known as a pitcher-friendly venue, typically suppressing offensive output. The two most recent head-to-head games be...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

While both teams have struggled offensively at times, the Tigers' offense has been potent recently, and Comerica Park can play moderately fo...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% under

Guardians have allowed only 22 runs in their last 5, and Tigers have scored 25 but against weaker pitching. Comerica Park is often pitcher-f...

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Spread

Consensus
Detroit Tigers -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Detroit's recent form (4-1, +9 RD) and home-field edge at Comerica support a modest favorite bias. Cleveland's weak recent run (1-4, -5 RD)...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 34% Detroit Tigers -1.5

A -1.5 runline requires a multi-run win which is harder than a straight moneyline; Detroit's stronger recent form and home advantage increas...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have demonstrated a stronger recent form, including a win in their last match and victories in both June 2026 matchups against...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Tigers strong home form supports a narrow spread cover. Recent series data and training cutoff through 2025-09 indicate slight edge for Detr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Detroit's strong recent form and home advantage position them as the clear favorites in this matchup. While recent head-to-head games have b...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Cleveland Guardians

Given the Tigers' superior recent form and the strong pitching advantage with Tarik Skubal, they are expected to win by more than one run. T...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 25% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

Guardians have won by 2+ runs in recent meetings, but Tigers are in good form. Without live data, I expect a close game, making the run line...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Under 4.5

The first five innings are typically lower-scoring than full games due to bullpen depth in reserve and starters finding their rhythm. Detroi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% Detroit Tigers

Given Detroit's strong recent start-to-game scoring and the uncertainty/lack of published probable starters (higher chance of a bullpen or a...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have shown a tendency to start games strong, with early scoring in recent matchups. The Tigers' starting pitcher has struggled...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Detroit Tigers

Early innings favor the home starter based on form trends. Training data through 2025-09 and Tigers recent success support a first-five home...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% Detroit Tigers Lead

The Detroit Tigers' excellent recent form and home advantage suggest they are more likely to establish an early lead through the first five...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 62% Cleveland Guardians

The Tigers' ace, Tarik Skubal, is expected to pitch masterfully early in the game, stifling the Guardians' offense, which has been weak. Con...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cleveland Guardians

Starting pitching is key in the first five, and Guardians' rotation has been solid (though I lack specific starters). Tigers' hot bats may b...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Cleveland Guardians

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Detroit Tigers

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Detroit Tigers

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Detroit Tigers

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Detroit Tigers

56
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Cleveland Guardians

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Cleveland Guardians

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: c984bf6d37a56750…
Kickoff
Thu, Aug 13 · 17:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24119,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Comerica Park",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-13T17:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 13 Aug 2026 17:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "home": "Detroit Tigers"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 17,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWWL",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 25,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 35,
            "home": 35
        },
        "head_to_head": {
            "recent": [
                "2026-06-13: Cleveland Guardians 3–1 Detroit Tigers",
                "2026-06-12: Cleveland Guardians 3–2 Detroit Tigers"
            ],
            "matches": 2
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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