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MLB Comerica Park
Upcoming · in 87h 22m
Detroit Tigers logo

Detroit TigersvsCleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Detroit Tigers

Detroit enters this matchup in excellent form (4W-1L over last 5, +9 run differential) while Cleveland is in sharp decline (1W-4L, -5 run di...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Detroit Tigers

Detroit is playing at Comerica Park where the run environment is roughly neutral and their recent home form is stronger than Cleveland's; De...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have a stronger home record (6-1) compared to the Cleveland Guardians' away record (6-7). Additionally, the Tigers have w...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Detroit Tigers

Detroit enters with superior recent form (WWWWL) compared to Cleveland's LLLLW, and Comerica Park favors the home side. The two June 2026 he...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Detroit Tigers

Based on the provided recent form, the Detroit Tigers are in significantly better shape, winning four of their last five games compared to t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have significantly better recent form (4 wins in last 5) compared to the Cleveland Guardians (1 win in last 5). While hea...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Detroit Tigers

Detroit has won four of their last five and is playing at home, while Cleveland has dropped four of five. The Tigers' recent form and home a...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over 8.5

Detroit's recent run-scoring rate (5.0 RPG) and Cleveland's run-conceding rate (4.4 RCPG over last 5) both point toward a moderately elevate...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Both probable starters (Gavin Williams for CLE and Casey Mize for DET) provide quality length and have suppressed runs in many recent starts...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have relatively low batting averages (.229 for Guardians, .235 for Tigers) and have scored a similar number of runs per game (4.0...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams have combined for high run totals in recent games, with Detroit scoring 25 and allowing 16 in their last five. Comerica Park dime...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5

Detroit's offense has been scoring well, averaging 5 runs per game over their last five, and while Comerica Park can be pitcher-friendly, th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities recently, with the Tigers scoring 25 runs in their last 5 games and the Guardians scoring 17. W...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over_8.5

Both teams have shown offensive capability recently, with Cleveland scoring 17 runs in five games and Detroit 25. Comerica Park is neutral f...

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Spread

Consensus
Detroit Tigers -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Detroit's 4-run run differential advantage over the last 5 matches, combined with home-field advantage, makes a 1.5-run spread a slight lean...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% Detroit Tigers -1.5

A Detroit -1.5 (win by two+) is plausible because their pitching matchup (likely Casey Mize) and home offense can produce an early lead and...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Detroit Tigers

The Tigers' home advantage and recent form (2-game winning streak) make them more likely to cover a -1 spread against the Guardians, who hav...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Detroit Tigers

Tigers' strong home form and recent offensive output support a run-line cover at home. Cleveland's poor road results and recent losses make...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Detroit Tigers -1.5

With Detroit's strong recent performance (4 wins in 5 games) and home-field advantage, they are well-positioned to win this game by more tha...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Cleveland Guardians

While the Tigers are in better recent form, the Guardians have been competitive in their losses, often losing by a single run. The Tigers' w...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% away_ +1.5

The Tigers are favored and have better form, but the Guardians have won both recent head-to-head meetings, keeping games close. A one-run ma...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 4.5

First-five-innings markets are typically lower-scoring because relief bullpen depth is not yet deployed and starters are more effective earl...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Detroit Tigers

First-five outcomes are driven primarily by the starters' early-inning performance; Casey Mize has shown strong early-inning results this se...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Detroit Tigers

The Tigers' home advantage and recent form suggest they may lead after the first five innings. However, the Guardians' pitching staff has a...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Detroit Tigers

Starting pitcher matchups and platoon advantages lean slightly toward Detroit early in the game at Comerica. Both clubs show scoring in the...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers' strong recent form and offensive output suggest they are likely to perform well in the early innings, building a lead or...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

Both teams have had strong offensive stretches in their recent games, suggesting they can score early. The specified total for the first fiv...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Detroit Tigers

Home teams often perform better in the early innings, and Detroit's strong recent form suggests they may get out to an early lead. Cleveland...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Detroit Tigers

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Detroit Tigers

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Detroit Tigers

60
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Detroit Tigers

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Detroit Tigers

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Detroit Tigers

57
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Detroit Tigers

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 2438d3a747c1f69a…
Kickoff
Tue, Aug 11 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 23340,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Comerica Park",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-11T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 11 Aug 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "home": "Detroit Tigers"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 17,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWWL",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 25,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 33,
            "home": 34
        },
        "head_to_head": {
            "recent": [
                "2026-06-13: Cleveland Guardians 3–1 Detroit Tigers",
                "2026-06-12: Cleveland Guardians 3–2 Detroit Tigers"
            ],
            "matches": 2
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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