Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB
Final 4–1
Detroit Tigers logo

Detroit TigersvsChicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final4–1 Locked 28picks · 15 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Detroit Tigers 4–1 Chicago White Sox

5 of 7 AIs leaned Detroit Tigers — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Detroit Tigers 5/7
Correct calls
5/7
Final
4–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Detroit Tigers -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Detroit Tigers -1.5 W

A -1.5 run line for Detroit reflects modest home-field advantage and slight quality gap between franchises. Without pitching matchups, weath...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 42% Detroit Tigers -1.5 W

The market (Fox Sports) shows Detroit favored in the betting lines despite the worse season record — that reflects a perceived starting-pitc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Detroit Tigers W

The Tigers have a strong home record, but the White Sox have been competitive in recent games, making this a closely contested matchup.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Detroit Tigers

Tigers are expected to start a stronger pitcher and have better bullpen depth giving them the edge to cover a typical run line at home. Whit...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Chicago White Sox +1.5 L

While I lean towards the Tigers for a straight win due to home advantage, covering a -1.5 run line is difficult against a competitive oppone...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Chicago White Sox

Considering the historical head-to-head advantage and general performance trends from training data, the White Sox are slightly favored to c...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Detroit Tigers -1.5 W

While the Tigers are favored to win, covering a 1.5-run spread is challenging given the White Sox's ability to score. The Tigers have won by...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Detroit Tigers W

Detroit has historically been the stronger franchise and typically fields a more competitive roster than Chicago. Without access to live 202...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Chicago White Sox L

Chicago enters this game with the stronger overall record and a deeper lineup mix while Detroit slots Troy Melton into the start — Melton is...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Detroit Tigers W

The Detroit Tigers have a strong home record this season, while the Chicago White Sox have struggled on the road. Additionally, the Tigers h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 68% Detroit Tigers W

Detroit Tigers have shown stronger overall roster depth and pitching staff stability in recent seasons compared to the rebuilding Chicago Wh...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Detroit Tigers W

Given no specific 2026 team data, this prediction relies on a general understanding from my training data, which suggests that home-field ad...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Chicago White Sox L

Based on training data, the Chicago White Sox have historically performed better against the Detroit Tigers. This prediction assumes this tr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Detroit Tigers W

The Detroit Tigers have been performing solidly at home this season, while the Chicago White Sox have struggled with inconsistency. The Tige...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

MLB June games typically feature offensive activity in the 8–9 run range depending on pitching matchups and park factors. Without confirmed...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Under 8.5 W

Bookmakers have the total at 8.5; both probable starters profile as effective in 2026 and Comerica Park plus a modest breeze (Fox: 72°F, W 8...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% under W

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups, and the starting pitchers have solid ERAs, suggesting...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

White Sox pitching has been inconsistent allowing higher run totals while Tigers offense provides enough production for games to exceed typi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Over 8.5 L

Without specific starting pitching matchups, bullpen strength, or weather conditions for June 2026, predicting game totals is challenging. H...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Given the offensive capabilities often seen in matchups between these two teams in training data, there's a slight tendency towards a higher...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% over 8.5

Both teams have average to below-average pitching staffs this season, with the Tigers and White Sox ranking near the middle in ERA. The Tige...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 4.5

First five innings are typically lower-scoring than full-game totals; pitchers are fresher and bullpens are intact in the early game. A lean...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Detroit Tigers

Troy Melton projects to give a lengthier, quality outing and suppress early offense, increasing the chance Detroit leads after five innings;...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have been strong in the first five innings at home, while the White Sox have struggled early in games on the road.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 59% Detroit Tigers

Early game advantage goes to Detroit with superior starting pitching matchups projected. White Sox lineups have been slow starters in away g...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 48% Detroit Tigers

Similar to the full game prediction, the Detroit Tigers are given a slight edge for the first five innings due to home-field advantage and t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have shown a stronger early-game performance against the Tigers in training data, suggesting they are more likely to be leadin...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have a strong starting pitcher who has been effective early in games, giving them an advantage in the first five innings. The Whi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Detroit Tigers

68
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Detroit Tigers

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Detroit Tigers

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Chicago White Sox

56
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Chicago White Sox

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Detroit Tigers

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Detroit Tigers

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: b6590207f261a3b5…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 20 · 17:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4403,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-20T17:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 20 Jun 2026 17:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago White Sox",
        "home": "Detroit Tigers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-17T05:47:58+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →