Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox

Kickoff · Fri, Jun 19 · 22:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 16 · 05:57 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    9829bc937686026a…

Sport: Fri, Jun 19 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 3785,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-19T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 19 Jun 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago White Sox",
        "home": "Detroit Tigers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T05:56:26+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -30.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -27.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 201-251 -196.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 232-276 -221.0u	58% Detroit Tigers	52% Over 8.5	55% Detroit Tigers -1.5	53% Under 4.5
Match winner ? 58% Detroit Tigers The Tigers are favored as the home team in early-season June baseball. Without access to live 2026 rosters, injuries, or real-time form data... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 MLB Friday night games in mid-June typically fall in the 8–9 run range on average. Without pitcher matchups or ballpark-specific data for 20... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Detroit Tigers -1.5 The Tigers at home should be slight favorites on the run line. A -1.5 spread reflects modest home-field advantage and general competitive pa... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Under 4.5 First-five-inning totals in MLB typically skew toward the Under (~4.3 runs combined on average) because starting pitchers are fresh and stri... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 51-65 -9.6u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 52-117 -86.0u	60% Chicago White Sox	55% over	60% Chicago White Sox	55% Chicago White Sox
Match winner ? 60% Chicago White Sox The Chicago White Sox have a stronger overall record and have been performing better recently compared to the Detroit Tigers. Their recent f... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, and the game is expected to be competitive, leading to a higher likelihood of a total... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 60% Chicago White Sox The White Sox's superior performance and recent form suggest they are likely to win by at least one run, covering the spread. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Chicago White Sox The White Sox's consistent performance in the early innings suggests they are likely to lead after the first five innings. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 145-303 -211.3u	62% Detroit Tigers	53% over	55% home -1.5	58% Detroit Tigers
Match winner ? 62% Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers have shown stronger overall roster construction and pitching depth than the White Sox through 2025. Head-to-head trends favor... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over White Sox pitching has been weak allowing high run totals while Tigers offense provides consistent scoring. Historical games between these c... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% home -1.5 Detroit holds a clear talent edge and home advantage expected to produce a multi-run victory. Spread value leans toward the stronger Tigers... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 58% Detroit Tigers Tigers starting pitching typically keeps early innings close or in their favor against weaker lineups like the White Sox. Home field provide... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 14-46 -31.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 176-261 -223.1u	52% Detroit Tigers	55% Under 8.5	53% Chicago White Sox +1.5	38% Draw
Match winner ? 52% Detroit Tigers Based on historical trends and general MLB dynamics, the home team usually holds a slight edge in closely matched division games. Without sp... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Under 8.5 Historically, games involving both the Tigers and White Sox often feature struggling offenses and pitcher-friendly conditions, especially at... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Chicago White Sox +1.5 Baseball games, particularly divisional matchups, are frequently decided by one run. Even if the Tigers secure a victory, a +1.5 run line fo... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 38% Draw With potentially evenly matched starting pitchers and historically inconsistent offenses from both teams, a low-scoring affair through the f... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 84-212 -157.8u	52% Chicago White Sox	51% over	50% Chicago White Sox	51% Chicago White Sox
Match winner ? 52% Chicago White Sox Based on training data, the Chicago White Sox have historically held a slight edge over the Detroit Tigers. While specific recent form is no... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Without specific pitching matchups or recent offensive/defensive performances, it's difficult to make a strong call. However, general baseba... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Chicago White Sox Given the lack of specific information about starting pitchers, bullpens, or recent team performance, predicting the spread is highly specul... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% Chicago White Sox The first five innings often reflect the starting pitcher matchup and early game momentum. Without specific data, we defer to the general hi... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 201-294 -242.4u	60% Detroit Tigers	55% over 8.5	50% home -1.5	55% Detroit Tigers
Match winner ? 60% Detroit Tigers Based on training knowledge through 2025, the Tigers have generally been a slightly stronger team than the White Sox in recent years. Home f... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over 8.5 Both teams have had mid-tier offenses in 2025, but the pitching matchups are uncertain. The game is in June which generally favors offense d... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% home -1.5 The Tigers are expected to win but not necessarily by multiple runs. A one-run margin is common in MLB, making the -1.5 spread risky. Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Detroit Tigers Home teams tend to perform better in early innings, and Detroit's likely starting pitcher should give them an edge. The White Sox bullpen mi... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Detroit Tigers 4/6	over 3/6	home -1.5 2/6	Detroit Tigers 2/6

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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