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MLB
Upcoming · in 82h 00m
Colorado Rockies logo

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates logo

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 21 · 19:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 18 · 05:51 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: d7e5a90ae782f25e…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 21 · 19:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5450,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 19:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Pittsburgh Pirates",
        "home": "Colorado Rockies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-18T05:51:27+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Colorado Rockies 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Colorado Rockies

Colorado plays at home (Coors Field) where they typically have elevated run production due to altitude and thin air, which historically favo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have a strong home-field advantage at Coors Field, which is known for favoring hitters. The Pirates have struggled on the road t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Colorado Rockies

Both teams are projected to be below .500 clubs in 2026 based on historical trends through 2024. Colorado holds home-field advantage at Coor...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Colorado Rockies

Based on historical performance, the Colorado Rockies typically enjoy a significant home-field advantage at Coors Field, which tends to boos...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a stronger recent record and are favored in this matchup based on general historical performance trends. Colorad...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have a stronger recent form and better run differential, while the Rockies are near the bottom of the standings. Home field adva...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Over 8.5

Coors Field is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB, consistently producing totals in the 9–11 range. Even a mid-June matchup betwee...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Coors Field is known for high-scoring games due to its altitude and hitter-friendly conditions. Both teams have potent offenses, and the Roc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% over

Coors Field is the highest-scoring park in MLB and favors the over. Both lineups project as average or below-average offenses that still pro...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 9.5

Coors Field is notoriously a hitter's park due to the high altitude, consistently leading to higher scoring games. Both teams have historica...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

Both teams have shown a tendency for higher scoring games recently, suggesting an 'over' is more likely. The Rockies' pitching can be incons...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Coors Field inflates scoring due to high altitude and large outfield. Both bullpens are below average, and the weather forecast for June 21...

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Spread

Consensus
Colorado Rockies 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Colorado Rockies -1.5

Colorado's home-field advantage at Coors combined with historically stronger run production should generate a margin win. Pittsburgh is unli...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Colorado Rockies

While the Rockies have a home-field advantage, the spread of -1.5 is challenging to cover consistently. The Pirates have shown resilience in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Colorado Rockies

Home underdog status at altitude gives Colorado a slight edge on the run line. Pirates bullpen depth has historically been thin, increasing...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5

While the Rockies might win at home, winning by two or more runs against another team of similar historical caliber is less certain, especia...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Pittsburgh Pirates

Given the Pirates are favored in head-to-head and have a better recent form, they are likely to cover a standard spread. The Rockies have a...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5

The run line adds risk; maximizing confidence means assigning higher probability to Rockies covering +1.5 due to home field and potential cl...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Colorado Rockies 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Over 4.5

The first five innings at Coors Field typically see elevated scoring as both teams' offenses adjust early without deep bullpen fatigue. Pitt...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Colorado Rockies

The Rockies' offense tends to start strong at home, often leading after the first five innings. The Pirates' starting pitchers have struggle...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Colorado Rockies

Starting pitching matchups in 2024-25 tended to favor home teams early before bullpens took over. Coors Field inflates early scoring which t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Colorado Rockies

The home-field advantage at Coors Field, which benefits offensive production, is still relevant in the first five innings before bullpens be...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates' starting pitchers often perform better early in games, and their offense has been more consistent. Expect them to establish an...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates' starting rotation is better than Rockies', and early innings favor the better starter. Rockies often struggle early in games, while...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 3 sources

    3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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