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MLB
Final 2–1
Colorado Rockies logo

Colorado RockiesvsPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final2–1 Locked 24picks · 11 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus missed

Colorado Rockies 2–1 Pittsburgh Pirates

3 of 6 AIs leaned Pittsburgh Pirates — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Pittsburgh Pirates 3/6
Correct calls
3/6
Final
2–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Over L

Coors Field is one of the most prolific scoring environments in MLB due to thin air and ball-flight physics. Games at Coors typically see el...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% over W

Coors Field is known for high-scoring games due to its altitude, which favors hitters. Both teams have potent offenses, suggesting a high to...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% over

Coors Field altitude historically inflates run totals by 15-20%. Both pitching staffs project to allow above-average ERAs in 2026. Expect ga...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Over 10.5 L

Coors Field is notoriously a high-scoring environment due to its altitude, leading to inflated run totals for both teams. Both the Rockies a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both the Rockies and Pirates have offenses that can score, and their recent games suggest a tendency towards higher-scoring affairs. The par...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Over 8.5

Coors Field historically inflates scoring, and both bullpens are average. The total of 8.5 is low for this venue, and recent trends show bot...

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Spread

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Colorado Rockies -1

Home-field advantage in baseball is real but modest (typically 3–4% win-rate boost). Coors Field adds another layer of offensive advantage....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Colorado Rockies

Given the Rockies' home advantage and the Pirates' road struggles, the Rockies are likely to cover a -1 spread.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Pittsburgh Pirates

Run-line pricing typically favors the road dog in Denver. Pittsburgh's bullpen projects marginally stronger late, supporting a small lean to...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Colorado Rockies -1.5 L

When the Rockies win at home, they often do so by a margin of more than one run, leveraging the Coors Field offensive environment. This pick...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

Considering the Pirates' slight advantage in head-to-head and overall team strength, they are favored to cover a small spread. The Rockies'...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 L

With a slight edge in h2h expected, the run line of -1.5 for Pittsburgh is achievable. The Pirates have won by multiple runs in several rece...

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Match winner

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Colorado Rockies W

Colorado plays at home in Denver's high-altitude Coors Field, which traditionally favors hitters and inflates run production. The Rockies' h...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Colorado Rockies W

The Rockies have a strong home-field advantage at Coors Field, historically performing better there. The Pirates have struggled on the road,...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Pittsburgh Pirates L

Both clubs enter 2026 as rebuilding teams with sub-.500 projected records. Pittsburgh's slightly better rotation depth gives them a narrow e...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Colorado Rockies W

Based on historical team tendencies and the significant home-field advantage at Coors Field, the Rockies are often favored in home games, es...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Pittsburgh Pirates L

The Pirates have generally been the stronger team over recent seasons and have a slight edge in head-to-head matchups. While home advantage...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Pittsburgh Pirates L

Pittsburgh has shown slightly better recent form than Colorado in my training data, and the Rockies struggle at high altitude later in the s...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Over 4.5

Early-inning scoring at Coors Field is typically elevated because the altitude effect is immediate and felt from pitch one. Both teams shoul...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Colorado Rockies

The Rockies' home advantage and the Pirates' road performance suggest the Rockies may lead after the first five innings.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Pittsburgh Pirates

Starting pitching matchup leans slightly toward Pittsburgh's projected opener. First-five results have followed full-game trends in recent R...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Colorado Rockies (FFI)

The Coors Field effect tends to manifest early in games, with offenses often starting strong. Home-field advantage and the altitude often gi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates tend to start games strong, and their pitching staff has shown more consistency in the early innings. While the Rockies can scor...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 54% Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh's starting rotation has been more consistent early in games compared to Colorado's. First five innings favor the better pitching...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Colorado Rockies

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Colorado Rockies

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Colorado Rockies

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Pittsburgh Pirates

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Pittsburgh Pirates

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Pittsburgh Pirates

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 81303abf44414a56…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 21 · 01:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4896,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-21T01:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 01:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Pittsburgh Pirates",
        "home": "Colorado Rockies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-17T05:56:16+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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