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MLB
Final 6–3
Colorado Rockies logo

Colorado RockiesvsMiami Marlins

Miami Marlins logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final6–3 Locked 28picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Colorado Rockies 6–3 Miami Marlins

5 of 7 AIs leaned Colorado Rockies — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Colorado Rockies 5/7
Correct calls
5/7
Final
6–3

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Colorado Rockies 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Colorado Rockies W

Colorado's home-field advantage at Coors Field is substantial in July, with thin air favoring offensive output and home hitters. Both teams...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Miami Marlins L

Miami enters the finale with the series momentum after a 14-3 win on June 30 (Eury Pérez strong) and the Rockies are lining up Michael Loren...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Colorado Rockies W

The Rockies have a home advantage at Coors Field, where they have a 7-3 record in their last 10 games. The Marlins have a 14-22 away record,...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Colorado Rockies W

Colorado's home Coors Field advantage consistently inflates offense while Miami's recent defensive form has come on the road. Both clubs ent...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Colorado Rockies W

Based on general baseball knowledge from my training data through 2025-09, the Colorado Rockies typically gain a significant advantage playi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Miami Marlins L

The Miami Marlins are in better recent form and have a healthier roster compared to the Colorado Rockies. While Coors Field can inflate offe...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Colorado Rockies W

The Rockies have a slight edge at Coors Field due to altitude and recent offensive output (29 runs in last 5). The Marlins have a better rec...

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Spread

Consensus
Colorado Rockies -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Colorado Rockies -1.5 W

The Rockies' home-field advantage at Coors and recent run production (29 in 5 games vs Miami's 22) support a mild favorite position. However...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Miami Marlins -1.5 L

Given the Marlins' offensive form in this series and a weak-looking Rockies starting option (Lorenzen) at Coors Field, Miami is likelier tha...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Colorado Rockies W

The Rockies' home advantage and recent form give them a slight edge. With a 7-3 record in their last 10 games at Coors Field, they are likel...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Rockies receive a full run of home-field value at Coors, enough to make the -1.5 line slightly positive. Miami's recent wins came against we...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Colorado Rockies -1.5 W

Drawing from my training data through 2025-09, if the Colorado Rockies secure a win at home in Coors Field, it often comes with a margin of...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Miami Marlins L

Given the Marlins' better recent form and the Rockies' injury concerns, the Marlins are slightly favored to cover a small spread. They have...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Miami Marlins +1.5 L

The Marlins are a solid team with a good record, and games at Coors are often close. Even if the Rockies win, it's likely by a narrow margin...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Over 9.5 L

Coors Field is a hitter's park with above-average run environment; July weather (warmer air) increases ball carry. Colorado's recent form sh...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% over L

Coors Field + hot afternoon conditions materially raise run expectation; Lorenzen's season ERA (6.83) and the Marlins' recent offensive outb...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Coors Field is known for its high-scoring games due to its altitude and hitter-friendly dimensions. The Rockies have an average of 4.6 runs...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% over

Coors Field produces the highest run environment in MLB; both teams have averaged over 5 runs per game in recent outings. Four days rest for...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Over L

My training data up to 2025-09 indicates Coors Field is consistently one of the highest-scoring ballparks in MLB due to its altitude. Regard...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% under L

While Coors Field is known for offense, the expected starting pitchers, if they align with recent trends, have shown decent form. The wind b...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 9.5

Coors Field is the highest-scoring park in MLB, and both bullpens have been shaky (Marlins 4.5 ERA last 7, Rockies 5.2). Recent games have t...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Colorado Rockies 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 4.5

Early-game scoring at Coors Field typically favors the over in July due to warm air and fresh bullpen availability. Colorado's recent first-...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Miami Marlins

Early-game outcome correlates strongly with the starting pitchers; Lorenzen's season form (high ERA) at Coors suggests he may yield early ru...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Colorado Rockies

The Rockies' home advantage and recent form suggest they will lead after the first five innings. Their 7-3 record in their last 10 home game...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Colorado Rockies

Early-inning Coors effect still favors the Rockies offense before bullpens are taxed. Miami's recent form edge is concentrated in later inni...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Colorado Rockies

Based on general MLB trends and Coors Field's characteristics as learned from my training data through 2025-09, the home team often starts s...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Colorado Rockies

First five innings often favor the home team at Coors due to pitcher adjustment to altitude. Both teams likely start their best available ar...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Early game scoring can be influenced by starting pitchers. While both teams have shown some recent offensive capability, the potential for t...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Miami Marlins

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Colorado Rockies

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Colorado Rockies

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Colorado Rockies

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Miami Marlins

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Colorado Rockies

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Colorado Rockies

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1062–1080 · 50%
-771.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0a771150d00904d5…
Kickoff
Thu, Jul 2 · 00:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 8228,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-02T00:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Miami Marlins",
        "home": "Colorado Rockies"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWWL",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 11
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WLWLW",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 29,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 27
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 4,
            "home": 4
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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