Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins
Kickoff · Wed, Jul 1 · 00:40 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
0a311b5ddfe78e95…
- Kickoff
- Wed, Jul 1 · 00:40 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 8047,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-07-01T00:40:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:40:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Miami Marlins",
"home": "Colorado Rockies"
},
"version": "v1",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
56%
Colorado Rockies |
62%
Over 9.5 |
54%
Colorado Rockies -1.5 |
55%
Colorado Rockies |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
56%
Colorado Rockies Colorado plays at home in Denver (Coors Field), which historically favors hitters and inflates run production. The Rockies have a significan...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
62%
Over 9.5 Coors Field's extreme elevation (5,280 feet) significantly elevates run-scoring environments relative to league average. Both Colorado and M...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
54%
Colorado Rockies -1.5 Colorado's home-field advantage at Coors Field plus typical offensive superiority at that venue suggests a mild edge of 1–2 runs. Miami is a...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Colorado Rockies Early-inning advantage typically mirrors full-game advantage in MLB; Coors Field's altitude effect applies equally to the first five innings... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
62%
Miami Marlins |
57%
Over 8.5 |
78%
Miami Marlins +1.5 |
65%
Miami Marlins (lead after 5 innings) |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Miami Marlins Probable matchup projects Max Meyer (excellent 2026 numbers, high K rate, low WHIP) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (worse ERA and adjusting to Coors Fie...
🔍 researched
9 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
57%
Over 8.5 Coors Field home run and run environment typically pushes totals up, and Sugano's higher ERA makes him likelier to surrender more runs in Co...
🔍 researched
9 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
78%
Miami Marlins +1.5 Given the pitching matchup (Meyer vs Sugano) and Marlins' stronger season form, the Marlins are the safer cover on the run-line (+1.5) — the...
🔍 researched
9 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
65%
Miami Marlins (lead after 5 innings) First-five heavily favors the team with the better starting pitcher: Meyer's strong 2026 form and strikeout ability makes it likely Miami wi...
🔍 researched
9 sources cited
|
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
60%
Colorado Rockies |
65%
over |
55%
Colorado Rockies |
60%
Colorado Rockies |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Colorado Rockies The Rockies have a home advantage at Coors Field, which is known for its hitter-friendly conditions. Additionally, the Marlins have a slight...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
65%
over Coors Field's high altitude and thin air often lead to high-scoring games. Both teams have been involved in games with high run totals recen...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Colorado Rockies The Rockies' home advantage and recent form give them a slight edge. However, the Marlins' overall record and pitching performance make this...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
60%
Colorado Rockies The Rockies' home advantage and recent form suggest they may lead after the first five innings. However, the Marlins' pitching performance c...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
|
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
Colorado Rockies |
58%
over |
51%
Colorado Rockies |
52%
Colorado Rockies |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Colorado Rockies Rockies play at Coors Field where offensive output is inflated regardless of team quality. Marlins remain a rebuilding club with limited roa...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
over Coors Field produces the highest run totals in MLB year after year. Both lineups feature contact-oriented hitters unlikely to suppress scori...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Colorado Rockies Home run-line value exists because the Rockies rarely lose by multiple runs at altitude even when outmatched. Marlins bullpen remains unreli...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
52%
Colorado Rockies Early innings at Coors favor the home side due to quick offensive outbursts before opposing starters settle in. Marlins starters have shown... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
55%
Colorado Rockies |
65%
Over 10.5 |
52%
Colorado Rockies -1.5 |
50%
Colorado Rockies F5 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Colorado Rockies Based on historical data up to my last training update, the Colorado Rockies typically benefit from a significant home-field advantage at Co...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
65%
Over 10.5 Coors Field is renowned as one of MLB's most hitter-friendly parks, consistently leading to higher-scoring games due to the high altitude. T...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Colorado Rockies -1.5 Considering the Rockies' typical home advantage at Coors Field, they are more likely to secure a multi-run victory there than on the road. W...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
50%
Colorado Rockies F5 The Coors Field effect, which favors offense, often manifests early in games, giving the home team an advantage in the initial innings. Alth... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
53%
Miami Marlins |
62%
Over 8.5 |
28%
Miami Marlins -1.5 |
52%
Miami Marlins F5 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Miami Marlins The Rockies are a below-average team, especially at pitching, while the Marlins have a slightly better pitching staff and more balanced line...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
62%
Over 8.5 Both teams have below-average pitching staffs. Coors Field is the highest-scoring park in MLB. The Marlins' offense is mediocre but the Rock...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
28%
Miami Marlins -1.5 The Marlins are only slight favorites on the moneyline, so covering a 1.5-run spread is unlikely. Even if they win, it could easily be by on...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
52%
Miami Marlins F5 The first five innings favor the better starter, and the Marlins' rotation is slightly better than the Rockies'. Both bullpens are poor, so... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Colorado Rockies 4/6 |
over 2/6 |
Colorado Rockies -1.5 2/6 |
Colorado Rockies 3/6 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusColorado Rockies 4/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
56%
Colorado Rockies
Colorado plays at home in Denver (Coors Field), which historically favors hitters and inflates run production. The Rockies have a significan...
GPT-5 Mini
62%
Miami Marlins
Probable matchup projects Max Meyer (excellent 2026 numbers, high K rate, low WHIP) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (worse ERA and adjusting to Coors Fie...
GPT-4o Mini
60%
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have a home advantage at Coors Field, which is known for its hitter-friendly conditions. Additionally, the Marlins have a slight...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Colorado Rockies
Rockies play at Coors Field where offensive output is inflated regardless of team quality. Marlins remain a rebuilding club with limited roa...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Colorado Rockies
Based on historical data up to my last training update, the Colorado Rockies typically benefit from a significant home-field advantage at Co...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
53%
Miami Marlins
The Rockies are a below-average team, especially at pitching, while the Marlins have a slightly better pitching staff and more balanced line...
Over / Under
Consensusover 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
62%
Over 9.5
Coors Field's extreme elevation (5,280 feet) significantly elevates run-scoring environments relative to league average. Both Colorado and M...
GPT-5 Mini
57%
Over 8.5
Coors Field home run and run environment typically pushes totals up, and Sugano's higher ERA makes him likelier to surrender more runs in Co...
GPT-4o Mini
65%
over
Coors Field's high altitude and thin air often lead to high-scoring games. Both teams have been involved in games with high run totals recen...
Grok 4 Fast
58%
over
Coors Field produces the highest run totals in MLB year after year. Both lineups feature contact-oriented hitters unlikely to suppress scori...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
65%
Over 10.5
Coors Field is renowned as one of MLB's most hitter-friendly parks, consistently leading to higher-scoring games due to the high altitude. T...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
62%
Over 8.5
Both teams have below-average pitching staffs. Coors Field is the highest-scoring park in MLB. The Marlins' offense is mediocre but the Rock...
Spread
ConsensusColorado Rockies -1.5 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Colorado Rockies -1.5
Colorado's home-field advantage at Coors Field plus typical offensive superiority at that venue suggests a mild edge of 1–2 runs. Miami is a...
GPT-5 Mini
78%
Miami Marlins +1.5
Given the pitching matchup (Meyer vs Sugano) and Marlins' stronger season form, the Marlins are the safer cover on the run-line (+1.5) — the...
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies' home advantage and recent form give them a slight edge. However, the Marlins' overall record and pitching performance make this...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Colorado Rockies
Home run-line value exists because the Rockies rarely lose by multiple runs at altitude even when outmatched. Marlins bullpen remains unreli...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
Colorado Rockies -1.5
Considering the Rockies' typical home advantage at Coors Field, they are more likely to secure a multi-run victory there than on the road. W...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
28%
Miami Marlins -1.5
The Marlins are only slight favorites on the moneyline, so covering a 1.5-run spread is unlikely. Even if they win, it could easily be by on...
First 5 innings
ConsensusColorado Rockies 3/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Colorado Rockies
Early-inning advantage typically mirrors full-game advantage in MLB; Coors Field's altitude effect applies equally to the first five innings...
GPT-5 Mini
65%
Miami Marlins (lead after 5 innings)
First-five heavily favors the team with the better starting pitcher: Meyer's strong 2026 form and strikeout ability makes it likely Miami wi...
GPT-4o Mini
60%
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies' home advantage and recent form suggest they may lead after the first five innings. However, the Marlins' pitching performance c...
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Colorado Rockies
Early innings at Coors favor the home side due to quick offensive outbursts before opposing starters settle in. Marlins starters have shown...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
50%
Colorado Rockies F5
The Coors Field effect, which favors offense, often manifests early in games, giving the home team an advantage in the initial innings. Alth...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
52%
Miami Marlins F5
The first five innings favor the better starter, and the Marlins' rotation is slightly better than the Rockies'. Both bullpens are poor, so...
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Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
4 tool calls · 4 sources
4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
28 tool calls · 9 sources
9 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
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