Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox
Kickoff · Wed, Jun 24 · 19:10 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
5771b99afac1b124…
- Kickoff
- Wed, Jun 24 · 19:10 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 5913,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-24T19:10:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Wed, 24 Jun 2026 19:10:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Boston Red Sox",
"home": "Colorado Rockies"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-21T05:47:27+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 7 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
58%
Boston Red Sox |
62%
Over 9.5 |
54%
Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
60%
Over 4.5 (first 5 innings) |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Boston Red Sox Boston enters this mid-June matchup as the stronger team historically and in 2026 form, with a more consistent offense and pitching depth. C...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
62%
Over 9.5 Coors Field is one of baseball's most hitter-friendly parks due to altitude, lower air density, and shorter outfield fences. Both teams fiel...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
54%
Boston Red Sox -1.5 Red Sox's superior pitching and bullpen consistency make them slight favorites to win by 2+ runs in a single-game environment. However, Coor...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
60%
Over 4.5 (first 5 innings) Coors Field's altitude advantage is most pronounced early in games when neither team's bullpen has entered and starters are still sharp. Com... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
62%
Boston Red Sox |
58%
over |
53%
Colorado Rockies +1.5 |
60%
Boston Red Sox |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Boston Red Sox Boston is sending left-hander Ranger Suárez — a quality rotation piece acquired in the offseason — against a Rockies staff that just reinsta...
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
over Coors Field historically pushes totals up and Freeland's recent rust after IL time increases the chance of early runs allowed; while Suárez...
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
53%
Colorado Rockies +1.5 On the run line, backing the Rockies +1.5 at Coors is the lower-variance play: even if Boston wins, Coors makes a one-run Rockies loss plaus...
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
60%
Boston Red Sox Suárez's profile suggests he is likelier to keep runs down through five innings compared with a recently activated Freeland who may be on a...
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
|
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
60%
Boston Red Sox |
55%
over |
55%
Boston Red Sox |
60%
Boston Red Sox |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Boston Red Sox The Boston Red Sox have a stronger overall record and have been performing better recently compared to the Colorado Rockies. Additionally, t...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have potent offenses capable of scoring multiple runs. The Rockies' home field advantage and the Red Sox's strong lineup suggest...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Boston Red Sox The Red Sox's superior performance and the Rockies' struggles suggest the Red Sox are likely to win by at least two runs.
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
60%
Boston Red Sox The Red Sox's strong lineup and the Rockies' inconsistent pitching suggest the Red Sox will lead after the first five innings.
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
|
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
62%
Boston Red Sox |
53%
over |
58%
Boston Red Sox |
55%
Boston Red Sox |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox have historically been the stronger franchise compared to the rebuilding Colorado Rockies. Training data through 2025-09 show...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over Coors Field environment historically inflates run totals even without venue confirmation. Both lineups project average offense in training d...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
58%
Boston Red Sox Red Sox projected as superior road team against weak Rockies pitching staff per historical patterns. Training knowledge only available for 2...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Boston Red Sox Early game edge typically follows overall team quality in historical MLB data. Rockies bullpen and late offense weaknesses noted in training... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
55%
Boston Red Sox |
65%
Over 10.5 |
52%
Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
53%
Boston Red Sox |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Boston Red Sox Based on historical MLB team strength, the Red Sox generally field a more competitive roster than the Rockies. While Coors Field (assumed ve...
1 source cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
65%
Over 10.5 Coors Field (assumed venue) is notoriously hitter-friendly due to its high altitude, leading to consistently higher run totals than any othe...
1 source cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Boston Red Sox -1.5 Assuming the Red Sox are the stronger team as per historical trends, they have a reasonable chance to win by more than one run, even at Coor...
1 source cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
53%
Boston Red Sox Based on historical team performance, the Boston Red Sox typically have better starting pitching depth and early-game offensive capabilities...
1 source cited
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
60%
Boston Red Sox |
55%
over |
53%
away_spread_ -1.5 |
58%
Boston Red Sox |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Boston Red Sox The Boston Red Sox are generally a stronger team than the Colorado Rockies, especially when considering historical performance and typical t...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Baseball games, especially between teams with varying strengths, can often lean towards the over due to potential offensive outbursts or pit...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
53%
away_spread_ -1.5 Given the slight preference for the Red Sox in head-to-head, they are also more likely to cover a modest spread. A -1.5 spread implies a win...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
58%
Boston Red Sox The Red Sox's presumed advantage should extend to the early innings. Stronger teams often start with more intensity and better pitching matc... |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
58%
Boston Red Sox |
55%
Over 8.5 |
50%
Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
53%
Boston Red Sox |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Boston Red Sox The Red Sox have a stronger lineup and better recent form, while the Rockies have struggled at home with a poor pitching staff. Boston's off...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Over 8.5 Coors Field is known for high scoring, and both teams have capable offenses. The Rockies' pitching staff is below average, and the Red Sox b...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
50%
Boston Red Sox -1.5 The Red Sox are strong enough to win by multiple runs, but Coors Field can lead to close games. Boston's offense and Colorado's poor pitchin...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
53%
Boston Red Sox The Red Sox have a stronger starting rotation and should get an early lead. The Rockies' starter is below average, making Boston likely to l... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Boston Red Sox 7/7 |
over 4/7 |
Boston Red Sox -1.5 3/7 |
Boston Red Sox 6/7 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusBoston Red Sox 7/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Boston Red Sox
Boston enters this mid-June matchup as the stronger team historically and in 2026 form, with a more consistent offense and pitching depth. C...
GPT-5 Mini
62%
Boston Red Sox
Boston is sending left-hander Ranger Suárez — a quality rotation piece acquired in the offseason — against a Rockies staff that just reinsta...
GPT-4o Mini
60%
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have a stronger overall record and have been performing better recently compared to the Colorado Rockies. Additionally, t...
Grok 4 Fast
62%
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox have historically been the stronger franchise compared to the rebuilding Colorado Rockies. Training data through 2025-09 show...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Boston Red Sox
Based on historical MLB team strength, the Red Sox generally field a more competitive roster than the Rockies. While Coors Field (assumed ve...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are generally a stronger team than the Colorado Rockies, especially when considering historical performance and typical t...
DeepSeek V3
58%
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have a stronger lineup and better recent form, while the Rockies have struggled at home with a poor pitching staff. Boston's off...
Over / Under
Consensusover 4/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
62%
Over 9.5
Coors Field is one of baseball's most hitter-friendly parks due to altitude, lower air density, and shorter outfield fences. Both teams fiel...
GPT-5 Mini
58%
over
Coors Field historically pushes totals up and Freeland's recent rust after IL time increases the chance of early runs allowed; while Suárez...
GPT-4o Mini
55%
over
Both teams have potent offenses capable of scoring multiple runs. The Rockies' home field advantage and the Red Sox's strong lineup suggest...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
over
Coors Field environment historically inflates run totals even without venue confirmation. Both lineups project average offense in training d...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
65%
Over 10.5
Coors Field (assumed venue) is notoriously hitter-friendly due to its high altitude, leading to consistently higher run totals than any othe...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
over
Baseball games, especially between teams with varying strengths, can often lean towards the over due to potential offensive outbursts or pit...
DeepSeek V3
55%
Over 8.5
Coors Field is known for high scoring, and both teams have capable offenses. The Rockies' pitching staff is below average, and the Red Sox b...
Spread
ConsensusBoston Red Sox -1.5 3/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Boston Red Sox -1.5
Red Sox's superior pitching and bullpen consistency make them slight favorites to win by 2+ runs in a single-game environment. However, Coor...
GPT-5 Mini
53%
Colorado Rockies +1.5
On the run line, backing the Rockies +1.5 at Coors is the lower-variance play: even if Boston wins, Coors makes a one-run Rockies loss plaus...
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox's superior performance and the Rockies' struggles suggest the Red Sox are likely to win by at least two runs.
Grok 4 Fast
58%
Boston Red Sox
Red Sox projected as superior road team against weak Rockies pitching staff per historical patterns. Training knowledge only available for 2...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
Boston Red Sox -1.5
Assuming the Red Sox are the stronger team as per historical trends, they have a reasonable chance to win by more than one run, even at Coor...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
53%
away_spread_ -1.5
Given the slight preference for the Red Sox in head-to-head, they are also more likely to cover a modest spread. A -1.5 spread implies a win...
DeepSeek V3
50%
Boston Red Sox -1.5
The Red Sox are strong enough to win by multiple runs, but Coors Field can lead to close games. Boston's offense and Colorado's poor pitchin...
First 5 innings
ConsensusBoston Red Sox 6/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
60%
Over 4.5 (first 5 innings)
Coors Field's altitude advantage is most pronounced early in games when neither team's bullpen has entered and starters are still sharp. Com...
GPT-5 Mini
60%
Boston Red Sox
Suárez's profile suggests he is likelier to keep runs down through five innings compared with a recently activated Freeland who may be on a...
GPT-4o Mini
60%
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox's strong lineup and the Rockies' inconsistent pitching suggest the Red Sox will lead after the first five innings.
Grok 4 Fast
55%
Boston Red Sox
Early game edge typically follows overall team quality in historical MLB data. Rockies bullpen and late offense weaknesses noted in training...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
Boston Red Sox
Based on historical team performance, the Boston Red Sox typically have better starting pitching depth and early-game offensive capabilities...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
58%
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox's presumed advantage should extend to the early innings. Stronger teams often start with more intensity and better pitching matc...
DeepSeek V3
53%
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have a stronger starting rotation and should get an early lead. The Rockies' starter is below average, making Boston likely to l...
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Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
4 tool calls · 3 sources
3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 1 source
1 citation captured — unlock with Pro
-
48 tool calls · 6 sources
6 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
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