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MLB
Final 2–5
Colorado Rockies logo

Colorado RockiesvsBoston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final2–5 Locked 28picks · 17 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Colorado Rockies 2–5 Boston Red Sox

All 7 AIs backed Boston Red Sox — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Boston Red Sox 7/7
Correct calls
7/7
Final
2–5

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Over L

Coors Field is one of baseball's most prolific run-scoring environments due to thin air and shorter fences. A matchup between Boston (compet...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 59% over L

Coors Field in late June (warm, thin air) typically inflates run totals, and Freeland's 2026 splits show a tendency to give up multiple runs...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances, but the Rockies' home games at Coors Field often lead to higher-scoring games due...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Coors Field altitude typically inflates run totals even without current weather data. Training data through 2025-09 confirms Rockies home ga...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 10.5 L

Coors Field is well-known for being a hitter-friendly park due to its high altitude, consistently leading to higher scoring games. Both team...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and the typical run-scoring environment in baseball, there's a moderate chance of the total s...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5 L

Coors Field is known for high-scoring games due to the thin air. Both teams' offenses are capable, with Boston often putting up runs and Col...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Over 4.5

Early-inning totals at Coors Field tend to see quick offensive output, as hitters often capitalize on elevated conditions before bullpens se...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox's starting pitchers have been more consistent, and they have a better overall team performance, suggesting they will lead after...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Boston Red Sox

Boston starters project to hold early leads more consistently than Colorado counterparts. Training data through 2025-09 shows Red Sox with b...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% Boston Red Sox (F5)

The Boston Red Sox typically have a deeper lineup and often a more consistent starting rotation compared to the Colorado Rockies, based on h...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox's generally stronger roster and pitching depth, based on my training data, suggest they are more likely to perform better in the...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Boston Red Sox First 5 Innings

The Red Sox often have strong starting pitching, allowing them to lead after five innings. The Rockies' pitching is inconsistent, especially...

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Spread

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Boston Red Sox -1.5 W

Boston's roster construction and pitching advantage suggest a modest edge in a neutral environment. However, Coors Field negates some of tha...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Boston Red Sox W

Given the pronounced quality gap between Boston's starter and Colorado's Freeland, and Boston's better run prevention overall, there's modes...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Boston Red Sox W

Given the Red Sox's superior overall performance and away record, they are likely to cover a -1 spread against the Rockies. ([baseball-refer...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Boston Red Sox

Run-line value leans away given Boston's superior projected rotation depth. Rockies bullpen historically unreliable in late innings per pre-...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Boston Red Sox -1.5 W

While Coors Field can create unpredictable outcomes, the Boston Red Sox historically possess a stronger overall roster. If they secure a win...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 50% Colorado Rockies

Spread markets require a precise understanding of run differentials and pitching matchups, which are not available without live data. Theref...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Boston Red Sox -1.5 W

The Red Sox are favored to win, but covering a -1.5 run spread on the road is always tough. The Rockies can keep games close at Coors Field...

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First five innings 2.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% over

Freeland's season-long struggles and Coors Field's early-inning run environment make early scoring likely; Boston's lineup is capable of tou...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Match winner

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Boston Red Sox W

Boston enters as the slight favorite in a matchup between two mid-table AL/NL teams. The Red Sox have historically stronger pitching depth a...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Boston Red Sox W

Boston sends lefty Ranger Suárez (sub-3.00 ERA in 2026) against Colorado's struggling Kyle Freeland (season ERA well over 7.00), and Coors F...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Boston Red Sox W

The Boston Red Sox have a stronger overall record and have historically performed better against the Rockies, winning 6 of the last 10 match...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Boston Red Sox W

Boston Red Sox have historically been the stronger franchise with better overall roster depth than the rebuilding Rockies. Training data thr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Boston Red Sox W

Based on historical MLB team strengths, the Red Sox typically field a more competitive roster than the Rockies. However, the game is at Coor...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Boston Red Sox W

The Boston Red Sox are generally a stronger team than the Colorado Rockies, especially when considering their overall roster talent and perf...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Boston Red Sox W

The Boston Red Sox have historically been a stronger team than the Colorado Rockies, especially on the road. The Rockies are known to strugg...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Boston Red Sox

62
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Boston Red Sox

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Boston Red Sox

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Boston Red Sox

60
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Boston Red Sox

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Boston Red Sox

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Boston Red Sox

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1032–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 094810b1479b45e5…
Kickoff
Wed, Jun 24 · 00:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5877,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-24T00:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Boston Red Sox",
        "home": "Colorado Rockies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-20T05:54:40+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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