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MLB
Upcoming · in 83h 49m
Colorado Rockies logo

Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox logo

Kickoff · Wed, Jun 24 · 00:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 20 · 05:54 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 511ce0cf6abe4801…
Kickoff
Wed, Jun 24 · 00:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5877,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-24T00:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Boston Red Sox",
        "home": "Colorado Rockies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-20T05:54:41+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Boston Red Sox

Boston enters as the slight favorite in a matchup between two mid-table AL/NL teams. The Red Sox have historically stronger pitching depth a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have a stronger overall record and have historically performed better against the Rockies, winning 6 of the last 10 match...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox have historically been the stronger franchise with better overall roster depth than the rebuilding Rockies. Training data thr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Boston Red Sox

Based on historical MLB team strengths, the Red Sox typically field a more competitive roster than the Rockies. However, the game is at Coor...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox are generally a stronger team than the Colorado Rockies, especially when considering their overall roster talent and perf...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have historically been a stronger team than the Colorado Rockies, especially on the road. The Rockies are known to strugg...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Over

Coors Field is one of baseball's most prolific run-scoring environments due to thin air and shorter fences. A matchup between Boston (compet...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances, but the Rockies' home games at Coors Field often lead to higher-scoring games due...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Coors Field altitude typically inflates run totals even without current weather data. Training data through 2025-09 confirms Rockies home ga...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 10.5

Coors Field is well-known for being a hitter-friendly park due to its high altitude, consistently leading to higher scoring games. Both team...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and the typical run-scoring environment in baseball, there's a moderate chance of the total s...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Coors Field is known for high-scoring games due to the thin air. Both teams' offenses are capable, with Boston often putting up runs and Col...

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Spread

Consensus
Boston Red Sox -1.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Boston Red Sox -1.5

Boston's roster construction and pitching advantage suggest a modest edge in a neutral environment. However, Coors Field negates some of tha...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Boston Red Sox

Given the Red Sox's superior overall performance and away record, they are likely to cover a -1 spread against the Rockies. ([baseball-refer...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Boston Red Sox

Run-line value leans away given Boston's superior projected rotation depth. Rockies bullpen historically unreliable in late innings per pre-...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Boston Red Sox -1.5

While Coors Field can create unpredictable outcomes, the Boston Red Sox historically possess a stronger overall roster. If they secure a win...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 50% Colorado Rockies

Spread markets require a precise understanding of run differentials and pitching matchups, which are not available without live data. Theref...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Boston Red Sox -1.5

The Red Sox are favored to win, but covering a -1.5 run spread on the road is always tough. The Rockies can keep games close at Coors Field...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Over 4.5

Early-inning totals at Coors Field tend to see quick offensive output, as hitters often capitalize on elevated conditions before bullpens se...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox's starting pitchers have been more consistent, and they have a better overall team performance, suggesting they will lead after...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Boston Red Sox

Boston starters project to hold early leads more consistently than Colorado counterparts. Training data through 2025-09 shows Red Sox with b...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% Boston Red Sox (F5)

The Boston Red Sox typically have a deeper lineup and often a more consistent starting rotation compared to the Colorado Rockies, based on h...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox's generally stronger roster and pitching depth, based on my training data, suggest they are more likely to perform better in the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Boston Red Sox First 5 Innings

The Red Sox often have strong starting pitching, allowing them to lead after five innings. The Rockies' pitching is inconsistent, especially...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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