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MLB
Upcoming · in 88h 01m
Colorado Rockies logo

Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox logo

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 23 · 00:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 19 · 05:50 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 86f57a61f7350ec2…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 23 · 00:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5682,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-23T00:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Boston Red Sox",
        "home": "Colorado Rockies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-19T05:50:21+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First 5 innings

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Over 5.5

Coors Field's offensive environment typically produces quick runs early in games. Both teams have adequate offensive capability, and the thi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 50% Boston Red Sox

First-five-innings moneylines are sensitive to starting pitching; because I couldn't confirm a firm starter list from the previews I relied...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have been strong in the first five innings, often taking early leads, which gives them an advantage in this segment of the game.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 61% Boston Red Sox

Boston rotation typically stronger early in games and should hold an edge through five innings. Rockies early offense is suppressed on the s...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Boston Red Sox

The first five innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers, which are unknown for this 2026 game (based on training data through 2...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox's starting pitching depth tends to be stronger than the Rockies', and the first five innings often favor the better starter. How...

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Match winner

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Boston Red Sox

Boston enters as the stronger franchise with deeper offensive depth and more consistent recent history than Colorado. The Red Sox typically...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Boston Red Sox

On paper Boston is the stronger club overall and the matchup pages (MLB/CBS/StatMuse) list this as a regular-series road game for Boston at...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have a strong away record and have been performing well recently. The Colorado Rockies have struggled at home, which give...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 64% Boston Red Sox

Boston has historically been the stronger franchise with better pitching depth and offense than Colorado. Rockies play at altitude which inf...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Boston Red Sox

Based on historical team strength and my training data through 2025-09, the Boston Red Sox generally project as a slightly stronger franchis...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox are generally a stronger team than the Colorado Rockies, especially when considering historical performance and roster de...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 57% Boston Red Sox

As of my last training data in September 2025, the Red Sox had a stronger overall lineup and better pitching than the Rockies, who struggle...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Over 10.5

Coors Field is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB due to high altitude and thin air, historically producing elevated run total...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% over

Coors Field historically produces higher run totals and public matchup pages place the game at Coors on June 22/23; with the stadium and Jun...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have potent offenses, and the game is expected to be high-scoring. The over 9.5 total runs is likely to be surpassed.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Coors Field environment typically produces elevated run totals even against quality pitching. Both clubs feature lineups capable of stringin...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Over

Coors Field is historically renowned for being the most hitter-friendly park in MLB due to its high altitude, leading to significantly highe...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Both teams have offenses capable of scoring runs, and Coors Field, while pitcher-friendly for some aspects, can also lead to higher-scoring...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% over

Coors Field historically boosts run totals, and both teams have average-to-below pitching staffs. The over has hit frequently in Rockies hom...

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Spread

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Boston Red Sox -1

Boston is favored due to roster quality and recent consistency, but the -1 spread at Coors Field is relatively modest, reflecting the venue'...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Colorado Rockies +1.5

Given the Coors Field environment and pitching uncertainty, the safer spread play is the Rockies getting +1.5 — the park often compresses ma...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are favored to win by at least 2 runs, given their recent form and the Rockies' home struggles.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 59% Boston Red Sox

Red Sox projected to be the superior club on the road and should cover a standard run line. Altitude helps Colorado stay within reach but Bo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Boston Red Sox -1.5

Given the slight H2H lean towards the Boston Red Sox based on general historical team quality (training data through 2025-09), they are also...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Boston Red Sox

Given the slight advantage projected for the Red Sox in head-to-head matchups, they are more likely to cover a small spread. While not a str...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% Boston Red Sox -1.5

While the Red Sox should win, covering -1.5 runs on the road is challenging, especially at Coors Field where the Rockies can score in bunche...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

The early innings often see offenses getting started before bullpens become a major factor. With potentially decent starting pitchers but of...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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