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MLB
Upcoming · in 86h 54m
Cleveland Guardians logo

Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners logo

Kickoff · Sat, Jun 27 · 23:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 24 · 05:51 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded AIs split
Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: dfea8291aff0cd23…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 27 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7060,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-27T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Seattle Mariners",
        "home": "Cleveland Guardians"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-24T05:50:50+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over 8.5

Both teams feature high-velocity offenses capable of scoring in bunches. Cleveland's lineup depth and Seattle's slugging core suggest modera...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have potent offenses, and recent games have seen high-scoring outcomes. The Mariners' aggressive batting style and the Guardians'...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Training data indicates Cleveland home games trend slightly over the total in summer months with average run totals around 9.2. Both lineups...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Under 8.5

Considering a typical MLB matchup and based on general patterns from my training data, a total of 8.5 is often challenging to surpass, espec...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Given that this is a standard MLB game without specific conditions or team news, the expectation leans towards a typical number of runs bein...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 7.5

Both teams have offenses capable of scoring, and Progressive Field is neutral but not pitcher-friendly. Recent meetings between these teams...

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Spread

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Cleveland Guardians -1

Cleveland's home-field advantage and mid-June form trajectory support a modest one-run favorite spread. Seattle is a capable opponent but la...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' superior performance and the Guardians' struggles against top-tier teams make Seattle likely to cover the -1 spread. Their awa...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 49% Cleveland Guardians

Run-line value leans slightly toward Seattle based on 2024-2025 road performance against similar opponents. Guardians bullpen has been relia...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Cleveland Guardians +1.5

Even when favoring the Mariners for an outright win, baseball games are frequently decided by a single run, making the run line cover for th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Seattle Mariners

Assuming a standard spread, the slight edge is given to the away team (Seattle Mariners) based on general team performance. Without specific...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

While the Guardians are favored to win outright, covering a 1.5-run spread is difficult. The Mariners' pitching often keeps games close, and...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Under 4.5

First five innings in interleague matchups typically produce modest run totals (3–4 runs) as starting pitchers establish dominance early. Bo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' aggressive batting style often leads to early runs, and the Guardians' pitching inconsistencies may result in early scoring op...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Cleveland Guardians

First-five data from training set favors the home side when both clubs deploy their top starters. Guardians early offense has been consisten...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' historical strength, often rooted in their starting pitching, tends to be most impactful in the first five innings of a game....

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

In the first five innings of an MLB game, scoring can often build. Based on general offensive capabilities of MLB teams, there's a slightly...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians' starting rotation is solid, and early innings at home favor them. The Mariners' bullpen is better than their starters, so the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland enters late June 2026 as a competitive AL Central team with consistent recent form. Seattle, despite strong pitching depth, has hi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have shown superior performance in recent matchups against the Cleveland Guardians, with a strong away record this seas...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Cleveland Guardians

Training data through 2025 shows Cleveland with a strong home record against AL West teams. Seattle's rotation has been solid on the road bu...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Seattle Mariners

Based on historical team characteristics and my training data through early 2023, the Seattle Mariners often field strong starting pitching...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Seattle Mariners

Based on general MLB team performance trends, the Seattle Mariners often show a slight edge over the Cleveland Guardians in head-to-head mat...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians have a strong home record at Progressive Field, while the Mariners struggle on the road. Both teams are competitive this...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

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