Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB Progressive Field
Upcoming · in 85h 18m
Cleveland Guardians logo

Cleveland GuardiansvsSan Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% San Francisco Giants -1.5

The Giants' superior offensive and defensive form over the last 5 games (2-3 record, +3 run differential) provides modest support for a smal...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

I project a one-score Cleveland win as most likely but give modest edge to a multi-run Guardians victory because Gavin Williams typically go...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians' home-field advantage and the Giants' recent form suggest a close game. A spread of -1 in favor of the Guardians indicates a t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland at home is marginally favored on the spread given venue and slight edge in recent results. Giants road performance has been leaky....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% San Francisco Giants +1

Given the Guardians are only marginally favored and their offense has struggled, the Giants are expected to keep the game very close, making...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% San Francisco Giants

Considering the slightly better offensive form of the San Francisco Giants and a potentially favorable pitching matchup, they are marginally...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% San Francisco Giants -1.5

The spread is a coin flip given the uncertainty. The Giants are favored in moneyline, but covering by 2 runs is less likely. With no live da...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 8.5

Over the last 5 matches, Cleveland averaged 3.4 runs per game and San Francisco 5.0 runs per game, totaling 8.4 runs combined average—just b...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Under 8.5

Both probable starters profile as mid-rotation, strikeout-while-limiting-hard-contact arms (Williams ~3.7 ERA; Webb mid-3s ERA), and Progres...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances recently, with the Guardians scoring 17 runs and the Giants scoring 25 runs in the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% under

Both offenses have been inefficient recently and Progressive Field tends to suppress runs. High rest days suggest standard bullpen usage wit...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 99% Over 2.5

Baseball games very rarely end with three or fewer total runs, making an 'Over 2.5' pick almost a certainty for a full nine-inning game. Eve...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

The recent form of both teams suggests a tendency towards higher scoring games, with a combined 42 runs scored and conceded in their last fi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Progressive Field is neutral for scoring, but both teams have shown high-scoring games recently (Giants scored 25 in 5, Guardians 17 in 5)....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% San Francisco Giants

First-five-inning outcomes are heavily influenced by starting pitcher performance and early offensive aggression. Without specific starter n...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Cleveland Guardians

First-five innings lean to Cleveland because Gavin Williams projects to eat quality innings early and suppress scoring, while the Giants' st...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

Without specific data on the starting pitchers' recent performances, it's challenging to predict the first five innings outcome accurately....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Cleveland Guardians

Early innings often mirror overall home advantage at Progressive Field. Pitching matchups are unknown so neutral lean with tiny home tilt. T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Cleveland Guardians

Consistent with the overall game prediction, the Cleveland Guardians are marginally favored to hold a lead after the first five innings. Thi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% San Francisco Giants

The Giants' potential advantage in the starting pitching matchup and their slightly more potent offense in recent games suggests they are mo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% San Francisco Giants

First five innings often favors the starting pitcher. Without specific pitcher matchups, I lean to the team with better overall record. The...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% San Francisco Giants

San Francisco has won 2 of their last 5 matches with better offensive output (25 runs in 5 games vs Cleveland's 17), despite allowing 31 run...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland gets the edge in the probable-starter matchup: Gavin Williams (season ~3.7 ERA, 130+ IP) has been a steady mid-rotation arm and pr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians have a slight edge playing at home, with a 1-4 record in their last five games. The San Francisco Giants have a 2-3...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Cleveland Guardians

Guardians hold slight home edge at Progressive Field despite recent skid. Giants have allowed more runs lately and both clubs show poor form...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians, despite a poorer recent win-loss record, show a slightly better run differential and stronger defensive performance...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants have a slight edge due to their recent offensive performance and a more favorable pitching matchup on paper. While...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Francisco Giants

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Giants have a stronger overall roster and better recent form (though sample is tiny). With no li...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Cleveland Guardians

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

San Francisco Giants

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

San Francisco Giants

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Cleveland Guardians

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Francisco Giants

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Cleveland Guardians

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Cleveland Guardians

51

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1097–1132 · 49%
-823.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: c86099ee2508116b…
Kickoff
Tue, Aug 18 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 26372,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Progressive Field",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-18T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 18 Aug 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "San Francisco Giants",
        "home": "Cleveland Guardians"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLWLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 25,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 31
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLLLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 17,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 41,
            "home": 40
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →