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MLB Progressive Field
Upcoming · in 82h 32m
Cleveland Guardians logo

Cleveland GuardiansvsSan Diego Padres

San Diego Padres logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First 5 innings

Consensus
San Diego Padres 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% San Diego Padres

First-five-inning markets hinge heavily on starting pitcher quality and early lineup strength. Padres' recent offensive consistency (19 runs...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Cleveland Guardians

Given Cleveland likely starting a reliable top-rotation arm (Gavin Williams or Tanner Bibee) and San Diego projected to use a shorter/more e...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Diego Padres

The Padres' recent form suggests they may take an early lead in the first five innings, making them the likely winner in this segment of the...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% San Diego Padres

Early innings favor the more consistent Padres offense against a Guardians rotation showing early-game leaks. Home side has dropped first-fi...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 50% San Diego Padres

Without specific starting pitcher information, the prediction for the first five innings relies on the overall team form. The San Diego Padr...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% San Diego Padres

The first five innings often depend on the starting pitchers, which we lack details on. However, the Padres' overall team strength suggests...

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Match winner

Consensus
San Diego Padres 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% San Diego Padres

The Padres arrive with stronger recent form (3W-2L vs Guardians' 1W-4L in last 5) and a +1 run differential over the same stretch. Both team...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland gets home‑start rotation stability (Gavin Williams/Tanner Bibee top of the rotation) while San Diego has been managing a makeshift...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres have shown a stronger recent form with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, scoring 19 runs and conceding 18. I...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% San Diego Padres

Padres enter with stronger recent form (3W-2L) versus Guardians' poor 1W-4L stretch. Progressive Field favors the visitors given Cleveland's...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% San Diego Padres

Based on the provided recent form, the San Diego Padres are showing a stronger performance with a winning record (3W-2L) and a positive run...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres have a slightly better recent form and have been more consistent in their scoring compared to the Cleveland Guardians,...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Diego Padres

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Padres have a stronger roster and more recent success, while the Guardians are in a rough patch....

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

Combined 5-match scoring averages 3.4 runs per team (Guardians 3.4, Padres 3.8), suggesting a total near 7.1–7.2 runs. However, August baseb...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% over

I project a slightly elevated run environment due to San Diego's bullpen volatility and likely piggyback starts which can create matchup swi...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede multiple runs in recent games. The Padres scored 19 runs and conceded 18 in their last...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Both teams average above 3.5 runs per game in recent outings with weak bullpens. August weather at Progressive Field typically allows good c...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5

Both teams' recent games, according to the provided data, suggest lower-scoring outcomes with combined average runs per game for each team b...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in games with moderate scoring. Given the ballpark in Cleveland is generally neutral for sco...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

With no starter matchup details, I use season-long trends: the Padres have a potent offense, and the Guardians have been conceding runs late...

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Spread

Consensus
San Diego Padres -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% San Diego Padres -1.5

The Padres' 3-2 recent record and +1 run differential make them slight favorites on the road, though home-field at Progressive Field introdu...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 48% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

While Cleveland is my moneyline pick, the margin (win by 2+) is marginal — Guardians' starter stability gives them a decent chance to win by...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% San Diego Padres

Given the Padres' superior recent form and the Guardians' struggles, the Padres are likely to win by at least 2 runs, covering the -1.5 spre...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% San Diego Padres

Guardians' four straight losses highlight run-line vulnerability. Padres lineup has matched up well historically against Cleveland starters....

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% San Diego Padres -1.5

The San Diego Padres are in significantly better form with a positive run differential over their last five games, indicating they are winni...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% San Diego Padres

Considering the Padres' slightly better recent form and offensive consistency, they are favored to win by more than one run. The Guardians'...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% San Diego Padres -1.5

The Padres are favored on the moneyline, but winning by 2+ runs is not guaranteed. The Guardians' recent form is poor, but they are at home...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

With starting pitchers yet to be confirmed, it's difficult to get a strong read on early game scoring. However, both offenses have shown fla...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

San Diego Padres

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

San Diego Padres

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

San Diego Padres

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Cleveland Guardians

57
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

San Diego Padres

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Diego Padres

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

San Diego Padres

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1083–1112 · 49%
-803.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: f79c7aafb1eb4cf6…
Kickoff
Sun, Aug 16 · 17:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24717,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Progressive Field",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-16T17:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 16 Aug 2026 17:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "San Diego Padres",
        "home": "Cleveland Guardians"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWLWL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 19,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLLLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 17,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 38,
            "home": 38
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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